Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor holds a polling edge over Republican nominee Mike Beltran in Florida’s 14th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. Recent St. Pete Polls data shows Castor ahead 46% to 38%, prompting the Cook Political Report to shift its rating from Lean Republican to Toss Up on August 26. The redrawn district leans Republican based on 2024 presidential results, yet Castor’s long tenure, name recognition, and fundraising capacity have sustained trader confidence in a Democratic hold. Beltran, who won the August 18 Republican primary, benefits from the map but faces an uphill path in a race now viewed as closely competitive by multiple forecasters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-14 House Election Winner
FL-14 House Election Winner
$33,712 Vol.
$33,712 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
69%
Republican Party
26%
$33,712 Vol.
$33,712 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$17,351 Vol.
69%
Republican Party
$16,361 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor holds a polling edge over Republican nominee Mike Beltran in Florida’s 14th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. Recent St. Pete Polls data shows Castor ahead 46% to 38%, prompting the Cook Political Report to shift its rating from Lean Republican to Toss Up on August 26. The redrawn district leans Republican based on 2024 presidential results, yet Castor’s long tenure, name recognition, and fundraising capacity have sustained trader confidence in a Democratic hold. Beltran, who won the August 18 Republican primary, benefits from the map but faces an uphill path in a race now viewed as closely competitive by multiple forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$33,712End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor holds a polling edge over Republican nominee Mike Beltran in Florida’s 14th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. Recent St. Pete Polls data shows Castor ahead 46% to 38%, prompting the Cook Political Report to shift its rating from Lean Republican to Toss Up on August 26. The redrawn district leans Republican based on 2024 presidential results, yet Castor’s long tenure, name recognition, and fundraising capacity have sustained trader confidence in a Democratic hold. Beltran, who won the August 18 Republican primary, benefits from the map but faces an uphill path in a race now viewed as closely competitive by multiple forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,712End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor holds a polling edge over Republican nominee Mike Beltran in Florida’s 14th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. Recent St. Pete Polls data shows Castor ahead 46% to 38%, prompting the Cook Political Report to shift its rating from Lean Republican to Toss Up on August 26. The redrawn district leans Republican based on 2024 presidential results, yet Castor’s long tenure, name recognition, and fundraising capacity have sustained trader confidence in a Democratic hold. Beltran, who won the August 18 Republican primary, benefits from the map but faces an uphill path in a race now viewed as closely competitive by multiple forecasters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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