Florida's 16th congressional district features an open seat after longtime Republican incumbent Vern Buchanan retired, drawing multiple candidates into the August 18 primaries for both parties. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+6 under the new congressional map enacted in May 2026, which political analysts rate as Solid or Likely Republican across outlets including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Recent polling in comparable Florida races and the state's overall Republican tilt in House contests reinforce trader expectations of a GOP hold, though the open-seat dynamic and upcoming primary outcomes introduce some uncertainty before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-16 House Election Winner
FL-16 House Election Winner
$22,775 Vol.
$22,775 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
77%
Democratic Party
22%
$22,775 Vol.
$22,775 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$8,613 Vol.
77%
Democratic Party
$14,162 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 16th congressional district features an open seat after longtime Republican incumbent Vern Buchanan retired, drawing multiple candidates into the August 18 primaries for both parties. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+6 under the new congressional map enacted in May 2026, which political analysts rate as Solid or Likely Republican across outlets including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Recent polling in comparable Florida races and the state's overall Republican tilt in House contests reinforce trader expectations of a GOP hold, though the open-seat dynamic and upcoming primary outcomes introduce some uncertainty before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$22,775End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 16th congressional district features an open seat after longtime Republican incumbent Vern Buchanan retired, drawing multiple candidates into the August 18 primaries for both parties. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+6 under the new congressional map enacted in May 2026, which political analysts rate as Solid or Likely Republican across outlets including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Recent polling in comparable Florida races and the state's overall Republican tilt in House contests reinforce trader expectations of a GOP hold, though the open-seat dynamic and upcoming primary outcomes introduce some uncertainty before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,775End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 16th congressional district features an open seat after longtime Republican incumbent Vern Buchanan retired, drawing multiple candidates into the August 18 primaries for both parties. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+6 under the new congressional map enacted in May 2026, which political analysts rate as Solid or Likely Republican across outlets including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Recent polling in comparable Florida races and the state's overall Republican tilt in House contests reinforce trader expectations of a GOP hold, though the open-seat dynamic and upcoming primary outcomes introduce some uncertainty before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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