**Louisiana’s 6th congressional district uses a November 3 jungle primary system requiring an outright majority for an immediate win; otherwise a December 12 runoff follows.** The seat is open after incumbent Cleo Fields opted not to seek re-election and instead pursue a state senate bid. Republican legislators redrew the map earlier in 2026, shifting its composition to favor GOP candidates and prompting forecasters to rate the district Solid or Safe Republican. Ten candidates qualified before the recent filing deadline closed: six Republicans (including Blake Miguez, Rick Edmonds, Larry Davis, and others), three Democrats, and one Libertarian. This crowded, multi-candidate field produces significant vote fragmentation across both parties. With no dominant frontrunner positioned to consolidate a clear majority in the all-party primary, traders assign an 86.5% probability to “No” outright winner, reflecting the structural likelihood of a runoff driven by the open-seat dynamics and split opposition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
14% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-06 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-06 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-06 House election.**Louisiana’s 6th congressional district uses a November 3 jungle primary system requiring an outright majority for an immediate win; otherwise a December 12 runoff follows.** The seat is open after incumbent Cleo Fields opted not to seek re-election and instead pursue a state senate bid. Republican legislators redrew the map earlier in 2026, shifting its composition to favor GOP candidates and prompting forecasters to rate the district Solid or Safe Republican.
Ten candidates qualified before the recent filing deadline closed: six Republicans (including Blake Miguez, Rick Edmonds, Larry Davis, and others), three Democrats, and one Libertarian. This crowded, multi-candidate field produces significant vote fragmentation across both parties. With no dominant frontrunner positioned to consolidate a clear majority in the all-party primary, traders assign an 86.5% probability to “No” outright winner, reflecting the structural likelihood of a runoff driven by the open-seat dynamics and split opposition.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-06 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-06 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-06 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-06 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-06 House election.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$21End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-06 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-06 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-06 House election.**Louisiana’s 6th congressional district uses a November 3 jungle primary system requiring an outright majority for an immediate win; otherwise a December 12 runoff follows.** The seat is open after incumbent Cleo Fields opted not to seek re-election and instead pursue a state senate bid. Republican legislators redrew the map earlier in 2026, shifting its composition to favor GOP candidates and prompting forecasters to rate the district Solid or Safe Republican.
Ten candidates qualified before the recent filing deadline closed: six Republicans (including Blake Miguez, Rick Edmonds, Larry Davis, and others), three Democrats, and one Libertarian. This crowded, multi-candidate field produces significant vote fragmentation across both parties. With no dominant frontrunner positioned to consolidate a clear majority in the all-party primary, traders assign an 86.5% probability to “No” outright winner, reflecting the structural likelihood of a runoff driven by the open-seat dynamics and split opposition.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-06 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-06 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-06 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-06 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-06 House election.
Volume
$21End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Louisiana’s 6th congressional district uses a November 3 jungle primary system requiring an outright majority for an immediate win; otherwise a December 12 runoff follows.** The seat is open after incumbent Cleo Fields opted not to seek re-election and instead pursue a state senate bid. Republican legislators redrew the map earlier in 2026, shifting its composition to favor GOP candidates and prompting forecasters to rate the district Solid or Safe Republican. Ten candidates qualified before the recent filing deadline closed: six Republicans (including Blake Miguez, Rick Edmonds, Larry Davis, and others), three Democrats, and one Libertarian. This crowded, multi-candidate field produces significant vote fragmentation across both parties. With no dominant frontrunner positioned to consolidate a clear majority in the all-party primary, traders assign an 86.5% probability to “No” outright winner, reflecting the structural likelihood of a runoff driven by the open-seat dynamics and split opposition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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