Michigan’s 11th congressional district, a suburban Oakland County seat with a consistent Democratic lean, features an open contest after incumbent Haley Stevens vacated the seat to pursue a Senate bid. State Sen. Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary, while Republican nominee Ethan Baker, the mayor of Troy, faces a structurally challenging environment for his party. Trader consensus reflected in the 94 percent Democratic probability incorporates the district’s voting history, Moss’s established local profile, and limited Republican infrastructure in the area. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant national wave favoring Republicans, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similar safe seats limit the realistic scope for such shifts before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-11 House Election Winner
MI-11 House Election Winner
$71,074 Vol.
$71,074 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
3%
$71,074 Vol.
$71,074 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$49,052 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$22,022 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michigan’s 11th congressional district, a suburban Oakland County seat with a consistent Democratic lean, features an open contest after incumbent Haley Stevens vacated the seat to pursue a Senate bid. State Sen. Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary, while Republican nominee Ethan Baker, the mayor of Troy, faces a structurally challenging environment for his party. Trader consensus reflected in the 94 percent Democratic probability incorporates the district’s voting history, Moss’s established local profile, and limited Republican infrastructure in the area. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant national wave favoring Republicans, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similar safe seats limit the realistic scope for such shifts before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$71,074End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michigan’s 11th congressional district, a suburban Oakland County seat with a consistent Democratic lean, features an open contest after incumbent Haley Stevens vacated the seat to pursue a Senate bid. State Sen. Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary, while Republican nominee Ethan Baker, the mayor of Troy, faces a structurally challenging environment for his party. Trader consensus reflected in the 94 percent Democratic probability incorporates the district’s voting history, Moss’s established local profile, and limited Republican infrastructure in the area. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant national wave favoring Republicans, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similar safe seats limit the realistic scope for such shifts before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$71,074End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Michigan’s 11th congressional district, a suburban Oakland County seat with a consistent Democratic lean, features an open contest after incumbent Haley Stevens vacated the seat to pursue a Senate bid. State Sen. Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary, while Republican nominee Ethan Baker, the mayor of Troy, faces a structurally challenging environment for his party. Trader consensus reflected in the 94 percent Democratic probability incorporates the district’s voting history, Moss’s established local profile, and limited Republican infrastructure in the area. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant national wave favoring Republicans, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similar safe seats limit the realistic scope for such shifts before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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