Abelardo de la Espriella leads trader consensus at 89.5% for Colombia's June 21 presidential runoff after securing a surprise 43.7% plurality in the May 31 first round, ahead of Historic Pact candidate IvΓ‘n Cepeda's 40.9%. De la Espriella consolidated right-wing support following endorsements from Paloma Valencia, former presidents Γlvaro Uribe and IvΓ‘n Duque, and U.S. President Donald Trump, bolstering his hardline security platform. Cepeda, positioned as a continuation of outgoing President Gustavo Petro's agenda on peace talks and social policy, trails at 11.5% amid vote fragmentation and limited centrist backing. The narrow first-round margin and polarized electorate have shaped market pricing around the runoff dynamics, with most minor candidates at 0.1%.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. Β· DiperbaruiAbelardo de la Espriella announces JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate
De la Espriella named respected economist and former minister JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential candidate, enhancing his campaign's credibility and appeal ahead of the runoff election.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda formally accepts first-round election results
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 12%5%
On June 8, 2026, IvΓ‘n Cepeda publicly accepted the official results of the first round, ending initial disputes and signaling the start of the runoff campaign. This acceptance stabilized his market price, which had declined after the election.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda acknowledges first-round election results, preparing for runoff
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 14%24%
After initial skepticism and claims of fraud, Cepeda accepted the official results of the May 31 first round, confirming the runoff against De la Espriella and stabilizing market expectations.
Cepeda acknowledges firstβround defeat, ending dispute
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 12%5%
Cepeda publicly accepted the firstβround results on 7β―June, ending speculation about a contested outcome. The acknowledgment helped stabilize his price, which had fallen to a low of 12β―% by 16β―June after the runoff was confirmed.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda formally accepts first-round election results
After initial skepticism, IvΓ‘n Cepeda officially acknowledged his defeat in the first round and accepted the electoral authorities' results, paving the way for the runoff campaign. This acceptance reduced political uncertainty and stabilized market expectations for the runoff.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Belatedly Acknowledges First-Round Defeat
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro dips to 14%4%
Leftist candidate IvΓ‘n Cepeda officially acknowledged his first-round defeat after the final vote count was completed, clearing the way for a televised debate and cementing de la Espriella's lead in the runoff.
National Electoral Council certifies first-round results and runoff candidates
The Colombian National Electoral Council officially certified the May 31 election results, confirming Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda as the candidates for the June 21 runoff. This formal certification solidified the market's resolution path.
CNE certifies Deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs 43.7β―% firstβround lead over Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 85%1%
Official certification by the CNE confirmed Deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs firstβround lead (43.7β―%) and Cepedaβs 40.9β―%. The certification solidified the marketβs final values β Deβ―laβ―Espriella at 85β―% and Cepeda at 14β―% β and explains the last small adjustments between 4β―Jun and 10β―Jun.
Colombian authorities certify first-round election results amid peaceful voting day
Colombian authorities certified the May 31 first-round election results, confirming Abelardo de la Espriella's lead and IvΓ‘n Cepeda's second place, with international observers deeming the process orderly and transparent despite prior violence concerns.
Donald Trump endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for presidential runoff
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 85%4%
US President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Abelardo de la Espriella, praising his leadership and commitment to security and economic growth. This high-profile endorsement boosted De la Espriella's campaign visibility and market confidence ahead of the runoff.
Legal challenge filed to compel IvΓ‘n Cepeda to attend presidential debates
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 17%23%
A tutela action was filed seeking to obligate IvΓ‘n Cepeda to participate in at least two presidential debates before the first round, arguing that his absence creates an information asymmetry affecting voters' right to informed decisions. This reflects ongoing debate about debate participation in Colombia.
Claims of electoral irregularities emerge from IvΓ‘n Cepeda's campaign
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%22%
Following the first round, IvΓ‘n Cepeda's campaign alleged atypical voting patterns and possible irregularities at some polling stations, calling for verification and official scrutiny of the results. These claims added tension to the electoral process ahead of the runoff.
Preβconteo confirms runoff between Espriella and Cepeda
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 12%5%
Preβconteo data released on 1β―June confirmed the narrow margin and the need for a runoff, prompting a final swing of Cepedaβs price down to 12β―% and Espriellaβs up to 89β―% by 16β―June as the race solidified.
Colombiaβs firstβround presidential results: Deβ―laβ―Espriella leads, Cepeda second
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 87%5%
Official preliminary results released by the RegistradurΓa confirmed deβ―laβ―Espriella in first place and Cepeda in second. The market reacted instantly: deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs price jumped to 87β―% while Cepedaβs fell to 14β―%, reflecting the new reality of a runoff between the two.
Claudia LΓ³pez finishes fifth in first round, marking decline of centrist influence
Claudia LΓ³pez (IND) dips to 0%1%
Former BogotΓ‘ Mayor Claudia LΓ³pez finished fifth with less than 1% of the vote, reflecting the collapse of centrist candidates and impacting her market price to near zero.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda questions preliminary election results citing irregularities
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%22%
Following the first round, IvΓ‘n Cepeda publicly questioned the preliminary results, alleging atypical voting patterns at some polling stations. This raised tensions and uncertainty ahead of the runoff election.
Donald Trump endorses Abelardo de la Espriella after first-round victory
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 84%4%
On June 3, 2026, former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Abelardo de la Espriella, praising his leadership and policies. This endorsement bolstered De la Espriella's campaign momentum ahead of the runoff election.
Paloma Valencia Endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for Runoff
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 20%12%
Following her third-place finish, conservative candidate Paloma Valencia endorsed de la Espriella, consolidating the right-wing vote and boosting his market odds.
Cepeda files tutela to compel attendance at presidential debates
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%27%
Cepedaβs socialβmedia post demanding a legal action to force his participation in two televised debates was covered by Pulzo. The controversy over his refusal to debate drew criticism from rightβwing supporters and coincided with a market drop from 45β―% (5β―May) to 18β―% onβ―4β―June.
Polls confirm IvΓ‘n Cepeda leads runoff scenarios against De la Espriella
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 19%18%
Polls and surveys conducted after the first round show IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading in runoff matchups against Abelardo de la Espriella, with Cepeda generally favored to win by a margin of about 10 points. This reflects a consolidation of left-wing support and a divided right-wing electorate.
Abelardo de la Espriella gana la primera vuelta presidencial y pasa a segunda vuelta con IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 83%21%
Right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella secured first place in the first round of the presidential election with 43.74% of the vote, leading IvΓ‘n Cepeda to a June 21 runoff.
Abelardoβ―deβ―laβ―Espriella leads firstβround presidential vote with 43.7β―%
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 88%4%
Election day results showed deβ―laβ―Espriella leading the first round with 43.7β―% of the vote, confirming the marketβs upward trajectory and cementing his position as the frontβrunner.
Firstβround results send Espriella to runoff, Cepeda falls short of 50β―% threshold
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 13%22%
The firstβround official count showed Espriella ahead with 43.7β―% and Cepeda second with 40.9β―%. The unexpected loss of an outright majority caused Cepedaβs market price to plunge from 35β―% on 31β―May to 13β―% on 12β―Jun.
Abelardo de la Espriella wins first round, setting runoff with IvΓ‘n Cepeda
In the first round of the presidential election, Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed by IvΓ‘n Cepeda with 40.9%, necessitating a runoff election on June 21, 2026.
First round of presidential election results in runoff between De la Espriella and Cepeda
The May 31, 2026, election first round concluded with far-right Abelardo de la Espriella leading with 43.7% and left-wing IvΓ‘n Cepeda at 40.9%, necessitating a runoff on June 21. This confirmed the two main contenders and caused market prices to shift accordingly.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Finishes Second in First Round and Questions Preliminary Results
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%19%
Leftist candidate IvΓ‘n Cepeda secured 40.90% of the vote, advancing to the runoff but trailing De la Espriella. Cepeda and President Petro sowed doubt by alleging atypical voting patterns, causing Cepeda's market odds to drop sharply.
Abelardo de la Espriella Wins First Round of Colombian Presidential Election
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 84%16%
Right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella defied polls to win the first round of the presidential election with 43.7% of the vote, advancing to a runoff against leftist IvΓ‘n Cepeda.
First round election results: De la Espriella leads, Cepeda second, runoff set
The May 31 first round concluded with far-right Abelardo de la Espriella leading with 43.7% and left-wing IvΓ‘n Cepeda second with 40.9%, necessitating a runoff on June 21. This outcome confirmed market expectations and solidified the two-candidate runoff scenario.
First round of Colombian presidential election results: De la Espriella leads, Cepeda second
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 65%2%
In the first round of voting, right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed closely by left-wing candidate IvΓ‘n Cepeda with 40.9%, leading to a runoff election scheduled for June 21.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda challenges preliminary results citing irregularities
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 22%18%
Following the first round, IvΓ‘n Cepeda expressed concerns about atypical voting patterns at some polling stations and indicated his campaign would verify the integrity of the vote count, reflecting tensions in the electoral process.
Paloma Valencia endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for runoff
After finishing third in the first round, Paloma Valencia endorsed Abelardo de la Espriella to consolidate the right-wing vote against IvΓ‘n Cepeda in the runoff election.
First round election results: Abelardo de la Espriella leads, IvΓ‘n Cepeda second
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 86%29%
In the first round of the presidential election, Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed by IvΓ‘n Cepeda with 40.9%, triggering a runoff election scheduled for June 21. This result caused a sharp rise in De la Espriella's market price and a decline for Cepeda.
Public rebuke of IvΓ‘n Cepeda by victims of FARC and Vicky DΓ‘vila's criticism
A video circulated showing victims of the FARC publicly rebuking IvΓ‘n Cepeda for the number of child victims attributed to the guerrilla group. Journalist Vicky DΓ‘vila amplified the criticism on social media, impacting Cepeda's public image.
First round of Colombia's presidential election results in runoff between De la Espriella and Cepeda
The May 31, 2026, presidential election first round concluded with far-right Abelardo de la Espriella leading with 43.7% and left-wing IvΓ‘n Cepeda at 40.9%, necessitating a runoff on June 21. This outcome confirmed market expectations and caused a sharp rise in De la Espriella's market price and a decline for Cepeda.
Colombian presidential election first round held amid security concerns
The first round of Colombia's 2026 presidential election took place on May 31 amid heightened security measures due to ongoing violence and political tensions. Despite concerns, the election proceeded with significant voter turnout, resulting in a runoff between Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda.
First round of Colombian presidential election: Abelardo de la Espriella leads, IvΓ‘n Cepeda second
In the first round of the 2026 presidential election, far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed by left-wing IvΓ‘n Cepeda with 40.9%, necessitating a runoff election on June 21.
First round election results: De la Espriella leads, Cepeda second, runoff set
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 85%24%
In the May 31 first round, Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed by IvΓ‘n Cepeda with 40.9%. Neither secured a majority, necessitating a runoff on June 21. This official result confirmed the market's expectations and set the stage for the final contest.
Colombians vote in first round of presidential election amid security concerns
The first round of voting took place peacefully despite security risks, with high military deployment and election monitors reporting an orderly process, setting the stage for the runoff between de la Espriella and Cepeda.
First round election results: Abelardo de la Espriella leads, IvΓ‘n Cepeda second
In the first round of the presidential election, Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed closely by IvΓ‘n Cepeda with 40.9%. Neither candidate secured over 50%, leading to a runoff scheduled for June 21, 2026.
Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Advance to Presidential Runoff
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 86%23%
In the first-round vote, far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella outperformed expectations to lead with 43.7% of the vote, triggering a runoff against leftist IvΓ‘n Cepeda.
Colombia presidential election first round results: De la Espriella and Cepeda advance to runoff
The first round of the presidential election resulted in Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda advancing to the second round, reflecting the market's final price movements and confirming the two main contenders.
Firstβround results put Espriella ahead of Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 65%9%
Official firstβround results announced on 31β―May confirmed Espriella as the frontβrunner (43.7β―%) and Cepeda in second place (40.9β―%). The market surged Espriellaβs price to 65β―% and pushed Cepedaβs down to 38β―% the next day.
Colombian presidential election first round held; Abelardo de la Espriella leads, IvΓ‘n Cepeda second
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 80%24%
On May 31, 2026, Colombia held its presidential election first round. Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed by IvΓ‘n Cepeda with 40.9%. Neither secured a majority, triggering a runoff scheduled for June 21. This result caused a sharp rise in De la Espriella's market price and a decline for Cepeda.
AtlasIntel poll puts Deβ―laβ―Espriella ahead of Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 84%22%
An AtlasIntel poll for Semana released on 30β―May showed Deβ―laβ―Espriella leading Cepeda by 2β―percentage points (29.4β―% vs 27.8β―%). The poll gave momentum to his campaign and matches the market jump from 62β―% (30β―May) to 84β―% (4β―Jun).
Ecuadorβs president meets Deβ―laβ―Espriella, promises joint fight against narcoterrorism
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 84%6%
Ecuadorian President Danielβ―Noboa met with Deβ―laβ―Espriella and pledged joint action against narcoterrorism, promising to drop a security tax. The meeting was framed as foreign interference and drew intense media attention, coinciding with the marketβs biggest surge (+6β―pts on 26β―May) that lifted his price to 84β―% by 4β―Jun.
Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa Meets with Abelardo de la Espriella
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 68%3%
Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa met with right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, pledging to fight narcoterrorism and lift a security tax, which the Colombian government criticized as election interference.
Ecuadorean president meets Abelardo de la Espriella, pledges joint fight against narcoterrorism
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 63%13%
Ecuadorean president Daniel Noboa met with De la Espriella and committed to joint efforts against narcoterrorism, promising to eliminate a security tax. The Colombian government condemned this as interference, adding international tension to the election period.
Final campaign surge boosts Abelardo de la Espriella's chances ahead of election
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 63%19%
In the final days before the May 31 election, Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign gained momentum, with polls and market prices showing a significant rise, overtaking Paloma Valencia and positioning him as the main right-wing contender against IvΓ‘n Cepeda.
ExβBucaramanga mayor joins Espriellaβs campaign as regional manager
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 43%8%
Former Bucaramanga mayor Jaimeβ―AndrΓ©sβ―BeltrΓ‘n announced he would join Espriellaβs campaign as regional manager. The endorsement contributed to a price jump for Espriella from 35β―% on 23β―May to 43β―% on 29β―May.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda faces complaints for violating electoral silence with campaign events
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 32%7%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda was formally denounced for holding mass campaign events during the legally mandated electoral silence period, raising legal and reputational challenges that likely contributed to a decline in his market price.
Daniel Coronell Reveals Alleged Alex Saab Payments to Abelardo de la Espriella
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 65%20%
An investigative report revealed that companies linked to Alex Saab transferred over $370,000 to accounts associated with candidate Abelardo de la Espriella.
Abelardo de laβ―Espriella linked to $370β―k transfers from Alexβ―Saab companies
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 72%8%
A column by Danielβ―Coronell revealed alleged $370β―k transfers from Alexβ―Saabβlinked companies to deβ―laβ―Espriella. Media coverage amplified doubts about the candidateβs financing, briefly pulling his price back (+8β―pts) before the final vote.
Investigation alleges deβ―laβ―Espriella received hundreds of thousands from Alexβ―Saabβlinked firms
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 84%2%
A column by Danielβ―Coronell alleged that deβ―laβ―Espriella had received more than US$370β―000 from companies linked to Alexβ―Saab. The story triggered a brief dip in his price (from 86β―% back to 84β―% on 6β―June) as traders reassessed potential legal risk, but the overall upward trend continued.
Report alleges Abelardoβ―deβ―laβ―Espriella received $370β―k from Alexβ―Saabβlinked firms
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 84%3%
A column by Danielβ―Coronell exposed alleged transfers of more than $370β―k from Alexβ―Saabβrelated companies to deβ―laβ―Espriella, reviving controversy but having limited impact; the market price continued its upward trend, indicating the scandal was outweighed by the consolidation of rightβwing support.
Γlvaro Uribe accuses IvΓ‘n Cepeda of paramilitary ties and undermining peace
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 32%11%
Former president Γlvaro Uribe publicly accused IvΓ‘n Cepeda of offering benefits to paramilitaries and having links with FARC dissidents, intensifying political polarization and impacting Cepeda's campaign and market support.
Investigation reveals financial ties between Abelardo de la Espriella and Alex Saab
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 22%4%
An investigative report exposed that Abelardo de la Espriella allegedly received over $370,000 from companies linked to Alex Saab, a controversial businessman. This raised questions about his campaign financing and integrity.
Abelardo de la Espriella leads first round of presidential election
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 62%34%
In the May 31 first round, Abelardo de la Espriella surprised by leading with 43.7% of the vote, ahead of IvΓ‘n Cepeda's 40.9%, setting the stage for a runoff and boosting his market price significantly.
Ecuadorean president Daniel Noboa meets Abelardo de la Espriella, pledges joint narcoterrorism fight
The meeting between Noboa and de la Espriella, with a pledge to eliminate a security tax, was seen as international support for de la Espriella's campaign, positively influencing his market position.
Investigation reveals Abelardo de la Espriella received funds linked to Alex Saab
A journalistic investigation exposed that Abelardo de la Espriella allegedly received over $370,000 from companies linked to Alex Saab, a controversial businessman tied to corruption schemes. This scandal raised questions about De la Espriella's campaign financing but did not significantly derail his market momentum.
Report links Espriella to $370k transfers from Alexβ―Saabβrelated firms
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 45%22%
Investigative reporting alleged that Espriella received more than $370β―000 from companies linked to Alexβ―Saab. The story caused a brief dip in his price (from 67β―% on Mayβ―26 to 45β―% on Mayβ―20), but the market recovered quickly as the scandal was mitigated by his supporters.
Investigative column ties deβ―laβ―Espriella to Alexβ―Saab money transfers
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 44%12%
A column by Danielβ―Coronell revealed alleged $370β―k transfers from Alexβ―Saabβlinked companies to deβ―laβ―Espriella. The story generated a surge of criticism and a shortβterm dip in his price (from 56β―% on 22β―May to 44β―% on 23β―May).
Poll Shows Abelardo de la Espriella Growing in Strength for Runoff Scenarios
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 71%16%
A late-May poll showed de la Espriella gaining significant momentum, indicating he would defeat Cepeda in a hypothetical second-round runoff.
CNC poll gives Cepeda a comfortable lead over Espriella
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro dips to 35%3%
A CNC poll released on 24β―May showed Cepeda at 33β―% versus Espriella at 30.9β―%, confirming Cepedaβs lead. The market responded with a sharp decline in Cepedaβs price (from 38β―% on 22β―May to 35β―% on 28β―May).
Abelardo de la Espriella launches luxury campaign merchandise including $20 million watch
De la Espriella gained media attention for launching exclusive and expensive campaign merchandise, including a limited edition watch priced at 20 million pesos. This move sparked mixed reactions and highlighted his affluent campaign style.
IvΓ‘nβ―Cepeda closes campaign with rally in BogotΓ‘βs Plaza de BolΓvar
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 20%12%
Cepeda held a large rally in BogotΓ‘ to close his campaign. While attendance was strong, media coverage emphasized his declining poll numbers, coinciding with a market dip from 32β―% to 20β―% on Juneβ―1.
Revelation of financial ties between Abelardo de la Espriella and Alex Saab's companies
Investigative reports revealed that Abelardo de la Espriella received over $370,000 from companies linked to Alex Saab, a controversial figure accused of corruption. This raised questions about De la Espriella's political neutrality and may have influenced market perceptions and candidate support.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda closes presidential campaign with large rally in BogotΓ‘
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 38%10%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda held a major campaign closing event in BogotΓ‘ with strong supporter turnout, signaling campaign strength ahead of the first round and positively impacting his market price.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws presidential candidacy to support IvΓ‘n Cepeda
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 0%50%
Luis Gilberto Murillo officially withdrew his candidacy and joined IvΓ‘n Cepeda's campaign, aiming to strengthen the coalition and broaden support ahead of the election.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda closes campaign with large rally in BogotΓ‘
Cepeda held a major campaign closing event in BogotΓ‘'s Plaza de BolΓvar, demonstrating strong grassroots support and boosting his final market price before the election.
Abelardo de laβ―Espriella holds massive closing rally in Barranquilla
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 86%21%
Deβ―laβ―Espriella closed his campaign in Barranquilla with a massive rally that reportedly attracted over 35β―000 attendees. The highβvisibility event reinforced his momentum and pushed his market price to a new high of 86β―% on 31β―May, shortly before the election.
Polls show Abelardo de la Espriella surging ahead of IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 56%11%
Recent polls and campaign developments showed De la Espriella gaining significant ground over Cepeda, pushing his market price sharply upward as he became the clear frontrunner ahead of the May 31 election.
Deβ―laβ―Espriella draws over 50β―000 supporters at Barranquillaβs Gran MalecΓ³n
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 81%25%
Deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs massive rally on the Gran MalecΓ³n in Barranquilla attracted tens of thousands, reinforcing his momentum in the final week and pushing his market price from 56β―% (Mayβ―21) to 66β―% (Mayβ―28), then to 81β―% on Juneβ―2.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda closes presidential campaign with large rally in BogotΓ‘
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 72%16%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda held a major campaign closing event at Plaza de BolΓvar in BogotΓ‘ with strong support from Pacto HistΓ³rico followers, reinforcing his position as the leading candidate ahead of the May 31 election and stabilizing his market standing.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda cierra su campaΓ±a presidencial en la Plaza de BolΓvar de BogotΓ‘
IvΓ‘n Cepeda closed his first-round presidential campaign with a massive rally in BogotΓ‘, demonstrating strong mobilization of the Pacto HistΓ³rico coalition.
Abelardo de la Espriella Draws Massive Crowd at Barranquilla Campaign Closure
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 69%14%
Abelardo de la Espriella held a massive final campaign rally in Barranquilla, drawing tens of thousands of supporters and solidifying his position as the primary challenger to Cepeda.
Campaign headquarters of Paloma Valencia vandalized amid protests in BogotΓ‘
Paloma Valencia drops to 2%12%
Paloma Valencia's campaign office in BogotΓ‘ was attacked by masked protesters, causing damage and raising concerns about political violence and opposition safety, which contributed to her declining support and market price drop.
Jaime AndrΓ©s BeltrΓ‘n joins Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign as regional manager
Former Bucaramanga mayor Jaime AndrΓ©s BeltrΓ‘n abandoned his Senate bid to support De la Espriella's presidential campaign, enhancing the candidate's regional presence and campaign infrastructure.
ELN and FARC dissidents declare ceasefires ahead of the 2026 election
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 37%5%
Armed groups announced ceasefires for the election weekend. The news reduced the perceived security advantage of the hardβline right, causing Cepedaβs market price to tumble from 42β―% to 37β―% over the next few days.
Abelardo de la Espriella holds large campaign closing rally in BogotΓ‘ focusing on security and state reduction
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 52%8%
De la Espriella's rally in BogotΓ‘ emphasized his tough stance on security, promising megaprison construction and state downsizing to fund social programs. The event energized his base and contributed to his late surge in the polls, reflected in market price increases.
Colombiaβs ELN rebels and FARC dissidents announce ceasefire for presidential election
The ELN and FARC dissident groups announced ceasefires around the May 31 election date, reducing violence and potentially impacting voter turnout and election dynamics. This development affected all candidates but was significant for the overall election environment.
FARC Dissidents and ELN Rebels Announce Ceasefires Ahead of Election
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 56%11%
Colombia's major illegal armed groups announced separate ceasefires to respect the voting process, temporarily easing security concerns but highlighting the central role of security in the campaign.
Colombian National Electoral Council suspends AtlasIntel poll over methodological irregularities
The CNE suspended AtlasIntel's election polls due to concerns about biased methodologies and digital exclusion, affecting public perception and polling data reliability ahead of the election.
Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela and regional influence
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 45%12%
President Petro's public confrontation with Donald Trump regarding Venezuela and regional security influenced the political climate and market sentiment for the presidential election.
CNE Suspends AtlasIntel Polls Over Methodological Concerns
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 50%6%
The National Electoral Council (CNE) suspended the publication of AtlasIntel polls, which had previously shown De la Espriella leading, due to concerns over biased methodologies.
Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign gains momentum with new regional ally Jaime AndrΓ©s BeltrΓ‘n
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%11%
The addition of Jaime AndrΓ©s BeltrΓ‘n, former mayor of Bucaramanga, as regional campaign manager strengthened De la Espriella's territorial reach and boosted market confidence, reflected in a sharp price increase.
CNE suspends AtlasIntel polls over methodological concerns
The National Electoral Council (CNE) suspended AtlasIntel's polls due to concerns about biased methodologies, including digital exclusion and inconsistent data. The ban was lifted shortly after for procedural reasons, but the investigation into polling practices continued, affecting public perception of polling reliability.
Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro lead final polls before election
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%9%
By mid-May 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro were the top contenders with market prices at 44% and 42% respectively, reflecting a tight race heading into the election.
Two campaign workers for Abelardo de laβ―Espriella killed ahead of the presidential vote
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 64%19%
Two campaign workers for deβ―laβ―Espriella were ambushed and killed in Meta. The violent incident generated a surge of sympathy for the rightβwing candidate and a sharp rise in his market price (+15β―pts onβ―31β―May) while Cepedaβs price fell sharply.
Army Reveals Abelardo de la Espriella Was Declared Unfit for Military Service
A public controversy erupted after a journalist published an official document showing that the right-wing candidate, who campaigns heavily on patriotism and security, was declared unfit for military service in 1994.
Controversy over Abelardo de la Espriella's military service status sparks debate
A journalist published official military records showing Abelardo de la Espriella was declared unfit for military service, sparking public debate given his patriotic campaign rhetoric. This controversy likely caused temporary market volatility and scrutiny of his candidacy.
Army confirms Deβ―laβ―Espriella never served; labeled βnonβaptβ in 1994
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 45%10%
A media report highlighted that Deβ―laβ―Espriella was declared unfit for military service in 1994, undermining his βpatriotismβ brand. The story prompted a surge of criticism from opponents, contributing to a price dip from 55β―% onβ―14β―May to 45β―% onβ―30β―May, while Cepedaβs price continued its decline.
Final polls show close race between Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro
As the election nears, polls indicate a tight contest between Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro, with market prices reflecting this competitive dynamic.
Controversy over IvΓ‘n Cepeda's refusal to attend debates
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 19%18%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda faced criticism for declining to participate in several presidential debates, a stance that sparked legal actions seeking to compel his attendance. This controversy highlighted tensions around campaign transparency and voter information ahead of the election.
Army confirms Abelardo de la Espriella was exempted from military service
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 33%5%
The Colombian Army officially stated that De la Espriella was declared unfit for military service in 1994, leading to public debate due to his patriotic campaign rhetoric. This controversy caused significant market volatility for De la Espriella, reflecting doubts about his image.
Journalist Ana Bejarano Reveals Abelardo de la Espriella Did Not Serve in Military
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 50%6%
A column and official document shared by journalist Ana Bejarano revealed that De la Espriella was declared unfit for military service, sparking criticism from rival Claudia LΓ³pez.
Revelation that Abelardo de la Espriella did not complete military service sparks controversy
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 43%4%
The Colombian Army confirmed that Abelardo de la Espriella was declared unfit for military service and thus exempted, which sparked debate given his campaign's emphasis on patriotism and security. This controversy affected public perception and market prices.
Revelan que Abelardo de la Espriella no prestΓ³ servicio militar por no ser apto
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 45%1%
A column by journalist Ana Bejarano revealed official Army documents showing De la Espriella was declared unfit for military service, sparking criticism from opponents like Claudia LΓ³pez.
Revelation of Abelardo de la Espriella's military service status sparks controversy
The Colombian Army confirmed that De la Espriella was declared unfit for military service and was exempted, which sparked debate given his patriotic campaign rhetoric. This controversy was amplified by political opponents and media, affecting public perception.
Abelardo de la Espriella launches luxury campaign merchandise
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 28%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella launched a luxury watch priced at 20 million pesos as part of his campaign merchandise, attracting media attention and reflecting his campaign's blend of political and entrepreneurial strategies.
Abelardo de la Espriella's military service status revealed
The Colombian Army confirmed that Abelardo de la Espriella was declared unfit for military service in 1994, a fact that sparked public debate given his campaign's emphasis on patriotism and security.
Assassination of Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign coordinator in Meta
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 58%6%
Rogers Mauricio Devia, a key regional coordinator for De la Espriella's campaign, was killed in an armed attack, raising security concerns and political tension just weeks before the election. This tragic event highlighted the risks faced by political campaigns and affected De la Espriella's campaign dynamics.
Two presidential campaign staffers killed in Colombia amid election violence
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 40%4%
Two campaign staffers for right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella were killed in the department of Meta, raising concerns about election violence and its impact on political participation and campaign dynamics.
Two members of Deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs campaign killed in Meta
Two members of Deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs campaign were assassinated in the Meta department two weeks before the election, raising security concerns. The incident momentarily slowed his price rise (from 66β―% on Mayβ―28 to 66β―% on Junβ―2) but did not reverse the overall upward trend.
Assassination of two campaign members shocks Abelardo de la Espriella's team
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 63%19%
The killing of two members of Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign in Meta raised concerns about political violence and intimidation, eliciting international condolences and highlighting security challenges affecting the election environment and possibly rallying support for De la Espriella.
Two campaign workers for Abelardo De La Espriella killed in attack
Two campaign workers for right-wing candidate Abelardo De La Espriella were ambushed and killed in Meta province, raising concerns about election-related violence and security ahead of the presidential vote. De La Espriella condemned the attack and blamed dissident FARC factions, though authorities had not confirmed the perpetrators. This incident highlighted the tense and violent environment surrounding the 2026 elections.
Abelardo de la Espriella holds large campaign closing event in Bucaramanga
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 45%2%
De la Espriella's campaign rally in Bucaramanga attracted thousands, signaling strong grassroots support and momentum in the final weeks before the election, which was reflected in rising market prices.
Two campaign workers for deβ―laβ―Espriella murdered in Meta province
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 88%4%
Two campaign workers for deβ―laβ―Espriella were ambushed and killed in Meta province. The incident intensified security concerns, temporarily boosting Espriellaβs hardβline image and pushing his price higher, while also contributing to a sharp decline in Cepedaβs price as voters worried about violence.
Abelardo de la Espriella surges in polls, closing gap with IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 50%6%
Recent polls showed De la Espriella gaining significant voter support, narrowing the gap with IvΓ‘n Cepeda and surpassing Paloma Valencia, reflecting his campaign momentum and contributing to his market price increase.
AtlasIntel poll puts Espriella within striking distance of Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%9%
An AtlasIntel poll published on 15β―May showed deβ―laβ―Espriella at 32.9β―% and IvΓ‘n Cepeda at 37.6β―%, but highlighted that the former had closed the gap with the incumbent leftβwing candidate. The market reacted with a modest rise in Espriellaβs price (from 35β―% on 5β―May to 44β―% on 11β―May).
ExβBucaramanga mayor joins Espriellaβs campaign as regional manager
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 67%22%
Espriella announced that former Bucaramanga mayor Jaimeβ―AndrΓ©sβ―BeltrΓ‘n would join his campaign as regional manager. The endorsement was covered widely and coincided with a jump in Espriellaβs market price from 45β―% (Mayβ―20) to 67β―% (Mayβ―26).
Abelardo de la Espriella distances himself from Paloma Valencia in latest AtlasIntel poll
Paloma Valencia drops to 9%7%
Latest AtlasIntel poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella consolidating his lead over Paloma Valencia, who continues to lose support, confirming the market's decline in her price.
AtlasIntel poll puts Abelardo de laβ―Espriella within striking distance of IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 65%20%
AtlasIntel released a poll on 15β―May showing deβ―laβ―Espriella at 32.9β―% and Cepeda at 37.6β―%. The narrowing gap sparked a surge in Espriellaβs price, which jumped from 45β―% to 65β―% over the next ten days, while Cepedaβs price fell from 44β―% to 36β―%.
Abelardo de la Espriella gains ground in polls, distancing from Paloma Valencia
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 40%3%
Polls showed Abelardo de la Espriella gaining support and distancing himself from Paloma Valencia, establishing him as a leading right-wing candidate and increasing his market price.
Abelardo de la Espriella distances himself from Paloma Valencia in AtlasIntel poll
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 33%5%
An AtlasIntel poll released mid-May showed Abelardo de la Espriella gaining significant voter intention support, distancing himself from Paloma Valencia and closing in on IvΓ‘n Cepeda. This poll reflected growing momentum for De la Espriella and contributed to his rising market price.
Abelardo de la Espriella surpasses Paloma Valencia in AtlasIntel poll, nears IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 33%7%
In a key poll by AtlasIntel, De la Espriella gained 32.9% support, distancing himself from Paloma Valencia at 16.7% and closing the gap with IvΓ‘n Cepeda, signaling a surge in his campaign momentum and market price.
Late surge for Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of election day
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%16%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market probability rebounded to 44% on election day, indicating a late surge in voter support possibly due to final campaign efforts and strategic messaging.
AtlasIntel poll puts Espriella ahead of Paloma Valencia
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 67%22%
An AtlasIntel poll released on 15β―May showed Espriella at 31.5β―% and Cepeda still ahead, confirming his rise and giving the market a boost that raised his price from 45β―% (Mayβ―20) to 67β―% (Mayβ―26).
Latest AtlasIntel poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella widening lead over Paloma Valencia
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 41%16%
In mid-May 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella's support surged to 32.9%, distancing himself from Paloma Valencia at 16.7%, consolidating his frontrunner status ahead of the election.
FARC dissident audio backs Cepeda; Uribe accuses candidate of voter coercion
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 19%21%
A viral audio allegedly featuring a FARC dissident praising Cepeda, together with accusations from former President Uribe of βcriminal coercionβ of voters for Cepeda, sparked a media storm. The controversy eroded voter confidence, driving Cepedaβs price sharply down from 40β―% (Mayβ―11) to 19β―% (Juneβ―2).
Abelardo de la Espriella campaigns in Valle del Cauca denouncing political exploitation
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%10%
Abelardo de la Espriella toured Valle del Cauca, criticizing traditional political practices and promising to fight political exploitation, energizing his base and contributing to his rising market support ahead of the election.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda denounces armed groups' coercion in electoral process, demands sanctions
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro dips to 38%2%
Cepeda publicly condemned the influence of armed groups pressuring voters in various regions, calling for investigations and sanctions to ensure free and fair elections, reinforcing his campaign's commitment to democracy and impacting market perceptions.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 43%3%
De la Espriella's announcement of respected economist and ex-minister JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential candidate enhanced his campaign's credibility and appeal, contributing to a significant price increase in the market.
De la Espriella invests 195 million pesos in private AtlasIntel polling
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 46%7%
De la Espriella's campaign invested heavily in private polling services from AtlasIntel to track electoral performance daily, enhancing campaign strategy and contributing to a price increase from 39% to 46%.
Atlas Poll Shows Abelardo de la Espriella Leading in Runoff Scenarios
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%11%
A new Atlas poll showed IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading the first round, but Abelardo de la Espriella leading in a head-to-head runoff scenario with 44% of the vote.
Abelardo de la Espriella denounces political slavery during campaign tour in Valle del Cauca
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 43%3%
During a campaign tour, Abelardo de la Espriella criticized corrupt political practices and pledged to fight against political exploitation, energizing his base and increasing his market support.
Deβ―laβ―Espriella rallies in Valle del Cauca, denounces βpolitical slaveryβ
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 81%10%
Deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs tour of Valle del Cauca emphasised antiβestablishment rhetoric and attracted large crowds, reinforcing his momentum ahead of the Mayβ―31 vote and contributing to the final surge from 81β―% (6β―Jun) to 88β―% (13β―Jun).
IvΓ‘n Cepeda publicly confronted by victims of child recruitment by FARC, sparking criticism from Vicky DΓ‘vila
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro dips to 38%2%
Cepeda faced public criticism over the issue of child victims of FARC, with journalist Vicky DΓ‘vila sharing the confrontation and criticizing Cepeda's response, which affected his public image and campaign narrative during a sensitive period.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda requests investigation into Colombian ambassador's political endorsement
Ambassador Vilma VelΓ‘squez publicly endorsed IvΓ‘n Cepeda's campaign, prompting Cepeda to reject the support and request an official investigation to maintain campaign legality.
IvΓ‘nβ―Cepeda asks for probe into Haitian ambassadorβs alleged campaign activity
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 32%9%
Cepeda publicly demanded an investigation into Haitian ambassador Vilmaβ―VelΓ‘squez for alleged political campaigning, sparking controversy and a further decline of his market price from 41β―% to 32β―% as voters questioned his focus on legal battles.
Cepeda asks Colombian prosecutor to investigate Haitian ambassador
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 35%5%
Cepeda publicly demanded an investigation into Haitian ambassador Vilmaβ―VelΓ‘squez for alleged political proselytising. The controversy generated negative media coverage and contributed to a decline in his market price from 40β―% (early May) to 35β―% by 31β―May.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda faces public criticism over conflict victims controversy
IvΓ‘n Cepeda was publicly confronted by victims of child recruitment by FARC, an incident that sparked political debate and criticism, including from rival candidate Vicky DΓ‘vila, impacting Cepeda's public image.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda calls for investigation into ambassador's political involvement
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 37%1%
Cepeda publicly requested an investigation into Ambassador Vilma VelΓ‘squez for allegedly using her diplomatic position for political campaigning, highlighting his anti-corruption stance and impacting his campaign narrative.
Diplomat Vilma VelΓ‘squez investigated for political campaigning in Haiti
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro dips to 35%2%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda called for an investigation into Ambassador Vilma VelΓ‘squez for allegedly using her diplomatic position to promote political candidates, which is prohibited. This controversy affected Cepeda's campaign image.
Abelardo de la Espriella surges in polls with tough stance on crime
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%16%
Abelardo de la Espriella's poll numbers surged as he emphasized a hardline approach against criminal groups, appealing to voters concerned about security. This caused a significant market price increase for his candidacy.
Controversy over Colombian ambassador Vilma VelΓ‘squez's political involvement
Ambassador Vilma VelΓ‘squez was accused of using her diplomatic position to promote political candidacies, violating Colombian jurisprudence, which put her under investigation and affected IvΓ‘n Cepeda's campaign due to her association.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda asks probe of Haiti ambassador Vilma VelΓ‘squez for campaign interference
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 28%15%
Cepeda publicly demanded an investigation of Ambassador Vilma VelΓ‘squez for alleged political campaigning, reigniting concerns about his adherence to politicalβneutrality rules. The controversy accelerated Cepedaβs slide β his market price fell from 43β―% on 10β―May to 28β―% on 20β―May.
Colombian ambassador in Haiti publicly supports IvΓ‘n Cepeda, prompting investigation request
The Colombian ambassador in Haiti expressed support for IvΓ‘n Cepeda's campaign, leading Cepeda to request an investigation to avoid misuse of public office in political campaigning, impacting public perception.
Victims of child killings slam IvΓ‘n Cepeda in viral video
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 17%17%
A video circulated in which victims accused Cepeda of downplaying the 18,000 child deaths caused by the FARC. The clip sparked a socialβmedia storm and several news outlets highlighted the backlash, causing Cepedaβs market price to tumble from the midβ30β―% range to the highβteens within days.
Abelardo de la Espriella reaches peak market support
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%22%
Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign saw a late-stage surge in market support, positioning him as a leading contender.
Abelardo de la Espriella rebounds with strong campaign events
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%23%
Abelardo de la Espriella regained support through effective campaigning and positive media coverage, with market prices rising from 21% to 44%.
Abelardo de la Espriella leads Polymarket betting odds for second round
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%12%
Polymarket data showed Abelardo de la Espriella with a 63% chance to reach the second round, reflecting strong market confidence in his electoral prospects and contributing to his price surge.
Polymarket odds give Deβ―laβ―Espriella 63β―% chance of runoff
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 71%15%
Polymarket published odds showing Deβ―laβ―Espriella with a 63β―% chance of reaching the second round, far above his rivals. The marketβprediction platformβs data were cited by several political analysts, prompting a rapid surge in Deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs price and a further decline for Cepeda.
Polymarket prediction platform shows Abelardo de la Espriella nearly tied with IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 43%3%
International prediction market Polymarket indicated a statistical tie between De la Espriella and Cepeda, reflecting growing confidence in De la Espriella's chances and likely influencing market prices upward for him and downward for Cepeda.
Prediction market shows Abelardo de la Espriella closing gap with IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 65%22%
Polymarket data indicated a near tie between De la Espriella and Cepeda, with 38% and 39% respectively, reflecting growing market confidence in De la Espriella's chances. This coincided with his campaign gaining support from influential political groups, boosting his perceived electability.
Luis Gilberto Murillo Withdraws Presidential Candidacy to Endorse IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo officially withdrew his presidential bid to join and support the campaign of Pacto HistΓ³rico candidate IvΓ‘n Cepeda.
Luis Gilberto Murillo Withdraws and Endorses IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdrew his presidential candidacy to back IvΓ‘n Cepeda, consolidating the progressive coalition's support.
ExβBucaramanga mayor joins deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs campaign as regional manager
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 52%14%
Former Bucaramanga mayor BeltrΓ‘n announced he would serve as regional manager for deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs campaign, positioning the candidate as a unifying figure for rightβwing voters. The endorsement coincided with a 14βpoint jump for deβ―laβ―Espriella from 38β―% on 1β―May to 52β―% on 8β―May.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws candidacy and endorses IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo, a minor candidate, withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed IvΓ‘n Cepeda, consolidating left-wing support behind Cepeda and potentially boosting his chances in the election.
Abelardo deβ―laβ―Espriella gains former βBukele Colombianβ as strategic ally
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 38%10%
Former Bucaramanga mayorβ―Jaimeβ―AndrΓ©sβ―BeltrΓ‘n announced he was joining Deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs campaign as regional manager, a move that was widely covered on social media and in Pulzo. The endorsement gave the rightβwing candidate a visible boost, coinciding with the marketβs jump from 28β―% to 38β―% for Deβ―laβ―Espriella betweenβ―1β―May andβ―7β―May.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws from presidential race and endorses IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo formally withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed IvΓ‘n Cepeda, consolidating the left-wing vote and improving Cepeda's chances in the election.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws and endorses IvΓ‘n Cepeda
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 22%8%
Luis Gilberto Murillo, a minor candidate, withdrew from the race and endorsed IvΓ‘n Cepeda, consolidating left-wing support and strengthening Cepeda's campaign ahead of the election.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws presidential candidacy to support IvΓ‘n Cepeda
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 2%1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo ended his independent presidential bid and endorsed IvΓ‘n Cepeda, consolidating left-wing support and boosting Cepeda's chances in the runoff.
Luis Gilberto Murillo renuncia a su candidatura y se adhiere a la campaΓ±a de IvΓ‘n Cepeda
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro dips to 41%1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdrew from the presidential race to endorse and join the campaign of progressive candidate IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro, consolidating support on the left.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws from presidential race, endorses IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo formally exited the presidential race and endorsed IvΓ‘n Cepeda, consolidating left-wing support and causing Murillo's market price to drop to zero while boosting Cepeda's chances.
Luis Gilberto Murillo Withdraws Candidacy to Endorse IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo officially withdrew from the presidential race to support IvΓ‘n Cepeda, further consolidating the progressive coalition.
Abelardo de la Espriella rebounds in final campaign stretch
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 35%14%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price rose from 21% to 35% in early May 2026, indicating a recovery in voter support due to effective last-minute campaigning and endorsements.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda denounces armedβgroup pressure on voters
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%21%
Cepeda publicly reported intimidation by armed groups ahead of the vote. The announcement coincided with a sharp drop in his market price (β15β―pts) as voters expressed concern over security and possible vote suppression.
Deβ―laβ―Espriella launches $20β―million luxury watch βTigrisβ―unoβ
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 46%8%
Deβ―laβ―Espriella unveiled a limitedβedition luxury watch costing 20β―million pesos. The viral post generated massive online discussion, raising his visibility and prompting a market surge from 38β―% onβ―1β―May to 46β―% onβ―13β―May.
Abelardoβ―deβ―laβ―Espriella unveils 20β―millionβpeso luxury campaign watch
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 48%6%
Espriella released a limitedβedition luxury watch priced at 20β―million pesos, generating viral socialβmedia buzz that lifted his market perception from 42β―% to 48β―% as supporters praised his branding tactics.
Vicky DΓ‘vila drops out after health issues
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) dips to 0%1%
Vicky DΓ‘vila announced she could not continue due to health concerns, sending her price to zero.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Leads Presidential Polls with 44.3% Support
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 42%4%
A major Invamer poll showed progressive candidate IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading the presidential race with 44.3% support, well ahead of right-wing rivals.
Poll: IvΓ‘nβ―Cepeda leads with 44β―% ahead of May election
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 56%20%
Invamer released a poll showing Cepeda at 44.3β―% and Deβ―laβ―Espriella at 21.5β―%. The strong lead triggered a market swing that lifted Cepeda from 36β―% (earlyβ―March) to a peak of 56β―% onβ―5β―May, while Deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs price fell from 34β―% to 28β―% during the same week.
IvΓ‘nβ―Cepeda leads polls with 44β―% ahead of May election
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 53%26%
A new Invamer poll released on 28β―April showed Cepeda at 44.3β―% β a 7βpoint jump from February β and Deβ―laβ―Espriella at 21.5β―%. The surge in Cepedaβs numbers drove his market price up from 27β―% on 9β―Mar to 53β―% on 5β―Mar and helped sustain his lead through May.
Invamer Poll Shows IvΓ‘n Cepeda Leading with 44.3% Support
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 44%6%
A major Invamer poll showed leftist candidate IvΓ‘n Cepeda holding a commanding lead at 44.3%, while right-wing rivals Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia trailed, splitting the conservative vote.
Jaimeβ―AndrΓ©sβ―BeltrΓ‘n joins Abelardoβ―deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs campaign as regional manager
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%7%
The former mayor of Bucaramanga, Jaimeβ―AndrΓ©sβ―BeltrΓ‘n, publicly joined Espriellaβs campaign as regional manager, fueling a media surge that lifted Espriellaβs price from the lowβ30s to the midβ40s.
Invamer Poll Shows IvΓ‘n Cepeda Leading Presidential Race with 44.3% Support
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 43%3%
A major national poll by Invamer showed progressive candidate IvΓ‘n Cepeda holding a commanding lead over his conservative rivals, boosting his market standing.
Colombia announces first international audit of presidential election systems
The RegistradurΓa Nacional del Estado Civil announced an unprecedented international technical audit of Colombia's presidential election systems and source code, enhancing transparency ahead of the May 31 vote. This increased confidence in the electoral process amid political polarization and likely influenced market perceptions of election legitimacy.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda faces public criticism over conflict victims
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro dips to 38%2%
A video circulated showing IvΓ‘n Cepeda being publicly confronted about child victims of the armed conflict linked to FARC, sparking controversy and criticism from rival candidate Vicky DΓ‘vila. This event highlighted tensions around Cepeda's campaign and affected public perception.
Former Bucaramanga mayor joins Deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs campaign as regional manager
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 48%4%
Deβ―laβ―Espriella announced that former Bucaramanga mayor Jaimeβ―AndrΓ©sβ―BeltrΓ‘n would join his campaign as regional manager. The endorsement by a popular local figure was reported by Pulzo and generated a noticeable uptick in Deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs market price during late April.
Carlos Felipe CΓ³rdobaβs campaign disbands amid funding scandal
Carlos Felipe CΓ³rdoba plunges to 0%33%
A funding scandal forced the disbanding of CΓ³rdobaβs campaign, collapsing his market price.
Paloma Valencia's support peaks amid growing media attention
Paloma Valencia rises to 44%4%
Media coverage and public interest pushed Paloma Valencia's market probability to a peak of 44%, reflecting heightened visibility and voter engagement.
Cepeda challenges Valencia and Deβ―laβ―Espriella to a democratic debate
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 31%7%
Cepeda publicly challenged Paloma Valencia and Deβ―laβ―Espriella to a βtruly democraticβ debate. While intended to raise his profile, the move was met with criticism from rightβwing outlets and coincided with a modest decline in his market odds during the second week of April.
IvΓ‘nβ―Cepeda says he will not back down after CIAβlinked threat of assassination
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 38%7%
Cepeda responded to a presidential alert that the CIA possessed βreal and concrete dataβ about a possible attack on him, publicly refusing to be intimidated. The announcement revived security concerns and contributed to a 7βpoint slide in his price from 45β―% (earlyβ―April) to 38β―% by 19β―Apr.
President Petro Warns of CIA-Detected Attack Plan Against IvΓ‘n Cepeda
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro dips to 17%2%
President Gustavo Petro announced that the CIA had concrete data regarding a potential assassination plot targeting candidate IvΓ‘n Cepeda, prompting heightened security measures.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro maintains lead in polls amid campaign intensification
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 41%3%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro sustained his lead in polls as the campaign intensified, reflecting continued voter support for the left-wing candidate. This stability was mirrored in market prices, reinforcing his frontrunner status.
Vicky DΓ‘vila leaves Paloma Valenciaβs coalition and returns to journalism
After losing the right-wing primary, Vicky DΓ‘vila left Paloma Valenciaβs coalition and returned to journalism, effectively ending her presidential campaign and dropping her market price to zero.
Roy Barreras eliminated in interβparty primaries
Roy Barreras drops to 0%7%
Roy Barreras failed to secure enough votes in the primary round, causing his market price to drop to zero.
Polls show IvΓ‘n Cepeda maintains lead but faces stagnation in voter support
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 37%10%
Polls indicated Cepeda's lead remained steady but without growth, raising concerns about his ability to win outright in the first round. This contributed to price fluctuations and uncertainty in the market regarding his ultimate chances.
Paloma Valencia reaches peak support amid campaign momentum
Paloma Valencia jumps to 47%6%
Paloma Valencia's market price peaked at 47% in early April 2026, reflecting sustained campaign momentum and growing voter enthusiasm ahead of the election.
Abelardo de la Espriella invests 195 million pesos in private electoral tracking service
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 19%4%
De la Espriella's campaign contracted AtlasIntel's private tracker service to monitor daily electoral pulse, enabling strategic adjustments and possibly improving campaign effectiveness, which contributed to his rising market support.
Colombian city Cartagena replaces horse buggies with electric carriages amid protests
Cartagena's move to replace horse-drawn buggies with electric carriages following animal welfare protests reflects social and cultural shifts in Colombia, indirectly influencing public sentiment and political discourse during the election period, with minor impact on candidate standings.
Abelardo de la Espriella vows to deploy army to streets amid rising campaign tensions
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 19%3%
De la Espriella's strong law-and-order rhetoric, including a promise to deploy the army to streets, aimed to consolidate his base and counter opponents. This statement likely contributed to volatility in his market price as voters reacted.
Paloma Valencia's campaign surges after major policy announcement
Paloma Valencia surges to 41%32%
Paloma Valencia's market probability rose sharply from 9% to 41% following a major policy announcement that resonated with voters, marking her as a significant contender.
Small plane crash kills Colombian congress member DiΓ³genes Quintero
The death of congressman DiΓ³genes Quintero in a plane crash was a significant event affecting political dynamics, potentially influencing voter sentiment and candidate support.
Poll shows Paloma Valencia surges to second place, challenging IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Paloma Valencia surges to 40%18%
A Centro Nacional de ConsultorΓa poll revealed Paloma Valencia rising to second place with 22.2%, displacing De la Espriella and creating a statistical tie with Cepeda in runoff scenarios. This reshaped the race dynamics, causing market fluctuations as Valencia emerged as a significant contender.
Paloma Valencia surges in polls after strong debate showing
Paloma Valencia surges to 39%30%
Paloma Valencia's market price jumped from 9% to 39% in March 2026 following a well-received debate performance that energized her campaign and attracted new supporters.
Attempted assassination plot against Abelardo de la Espriella foiled in Envigado
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 25%11%
Security forces prevented an armed individual posing as a campaign bodyguard from attacking De la Espriella during a political event. This incident heightened concerns about candidate safety and may have rallied public sympathy, contributing to a rebound in his market price.
Foiled assassination attempt against Abelardo de la Espriella during campaign event
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 25%11%
Authorities prevented a potential attack on De La Espriella when a man posing as a security escort was found armed at a campaign event in Envigado. This incident raised security concerns but reinforced his campaign's visibility, contributing to a price rebound from 14% to 25%.
Abelardo de la Espriella's support plummets amid controversy
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 14%7%
Controversial statements and campaign missteps caused Abelardo de la Espriella's market support to fall sharply from 21% to 14%.
Small plane crash in Colombia kills 15 including congress member
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro dips to 41%3%
A tragic plane crash killed 15 people including a congressman and a congressional candidate, causing political shockwaves and impacting the election dynamics, particularly affecting the market confidence in IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro and Abelardo de la Espriella as political stability concerns rose.
Abelardo de la Espriella faces controversy, causing sharp drop in support
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 10%23%
A controversy involving Abelardo de la Espriella led to a significant drop in his market probability from 33% to 10%, indicating voter backlash and uncertainty about his candidacy.
Security incident: Suspected intelligence operation foiled during Abelardo de la Espriella campaign event in Envigado
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 14%26%
A security breach involving a person posing as a security guard with surveillance equipment was uncovered, which raised concerns about campaign safety and potentially influenced voter perceptions of the candidate's vulnerability.
Abelardo de la Espriella's support collapses after controversy
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 14%25%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price dropped from 39% to 14% in mid-March 2026 due to a major controversy that damaged his public image and voter trust.
Victims of FARC publicly rebuke IvΓ‘n Cepeda β Vicky DΓ‘vila weighs in
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 39%8%
A video circulated showing victims of the FARC publicly rebuking Cepeda for the number of child victims. Vicky DΓ‘vila amplified the criticism on social media. The controversy caused Cepedaβs market price to tumble 8β―points from 47β―% on 8β―Mar to 39β―% on 15β―Mar, while deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs price stayed flat.
Paloma Valencia Appoints Juan Daniel Oviedo as Vice-Presidential Running Mate
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%1%
Conservative candidate Paloma Valencia selected economist and former statistics chief Juan Daniel Oviedo as her running mate to broaden her appeal to urban and independent voters, which impacted Oviedo's market profile.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%8%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a defender of his sonβs legacy and entering a crowded field, which boosted interest in candidates perceived as rivals or allies, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriellaβs support.
Paloma Valencia selects Juan Daniel Oviedo as vice-presidential running mate
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) rises to 3%2%
Valencia's choice of Oviedo, a centrist economist, boosted her campaign's appeal to moderate voters and affected market dynamics, with Oviedo's profile rising and impacting related market prices.
Juan Daniel Oviedo announced as vice-presidential candidate for Paloma Valencia
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%1%
Following the March 8 legislative elections and interparty consultations, Paloma Valencia confirmed Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential running mate, forming a center-right ticket for the presidential election. Oviedo, a former director of DANE and economist, gained significant votes in the primary.
Paloma Valencia announces Juan Daniel Oviedo as vice-presidential candidate
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%1%
Center-right candidate Paloma Valencia announced Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential running mate. Oviedo, an economist and former director of Colombia's statistics department, brought a technical and centrist profile to the campaign, aiming to consolidate support within the center-right coalition ahead of the presidential election.
Paloma Valencia wins Democratic Center primary for presidency
Paloma Valencia surges to 38%16%
Paloma Valencia secured the Democratic Center's nomination after winning the party's primary, becoming the main right-wing candidate and impacting market prices by consolidating conservative support.
Paloma Valencia Names Juan Daniel Oviedo as Vice-Presidential Running Mate
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) drops to 0%5%
Center-right candidate Paloma Valencia selected economist and former statistics chief Juan Daniel Oviedo as her running mate, consolidating moderate support and ending Oviedo's independent run.
Paloma Valencia Confirms Juan Daniel Oviedo as Her Vice-Presidential Running Mate
Following negotiations after the primary, Juan Daniel Oviedo officially joined Paloma Valencia's ticket as her vice-presidential candidate, ending his independent presidential bid.
Paloma Valencia's surge after strong debate performance
Paloma Valencia surges to 37%26%
Paloma Valencia's impressive debate performance led to a sharp increase in market support from 11% to 37%, signaling renewed voter interest.
Paloma Valencia sees surge in presidential campaign support
Paloma Valencia surges to 28%17%
Paloma Valencia's campaign experienced a sharp increase in market confidence, reflecting a shift in the competitive landscape.
Market reacts to narrowing candidate field ahead of March primaries
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 28%10%
As the field of presidential candidates narrowed in early March with interparty primaries, market prices adjusted to reflect the changing competitive landscape, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia's standings.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda announces Indigenous leader AΓda QuilcuΓ© as running mate
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 67%31%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda selected Senator and Indigenous leader AΓda QuilcuΓ© as his vice-presidential candidate, reinforcing his campaign's appeal to progressive and Indigenous voters and consolidating support within the Historic Pact coalition after legislative elections.
Claudia LΓ³pez wins centrist primary but fails to advance in presidential race
Claudia LΓ³pez (IND) plunges to 0%50%
Claudia LΓ³pez won the centrist primary but finished fifth in the first round of the presidential election with less than 1% of the vote, failing to advance to the runoff and marking a decline in centrist influence.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda announces AΓda QuilcuΓ© as vice-presidential running mate
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 43%5%
Cepeda's selection of Indigenous leader AΓda QuilcuΓ© as his vice-presidential candidate reinforced his campaign's social justice and diversity narrative, consolidating his base and contributing to a market price increase.
Ivanβ―Cepeda names Indigenous activist AΓda QuilcuΓ© as running mate
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 39%2%
Cepeda announced Indigenous leader Aidaβ―QuilcuΓ© as his viceβpresidential running mate, emphasizing a coalition with social movements. The announcement halted the prior decline and produced a modest rebound from 37β―% (Marβ―5) to 39β―% (Marβ―14), stabilising his price before the later fall.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda picks Indigenous leader AΓdaβ―QuilcuΓ© as running mate
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 13%43%
Cepeda announced Indigenous leader AΓdaβ―QuilcuΓ© as his viceβpresidential running mate. The selection was praised by leftβwing supporters but failed to broaden his appeal beyond the core base, after which his price fell steadily from a March peak of 56β―% to 13β―% by 12β―June.
Frustrated assassination attempt on Abelardo de la Espriella during campaign event
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 19%15%
Security forces thwarted a suspected assassination attempt on De La Espriella in Envigado, heightening the campaign's tension and possibly rallying support around him due to increased visibility and sympathy.
Cepeda announces Indigenous leader Aidaβ―QuilcuΓ© as running mate
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 49%10%
Cepeda unveiled Indigenous leader Aidaβ―QuilcuΓ© as his viceβpresidential running mate. The announcement was covered as a strategic move to broaden his appeal among rural and Indigenous voters, and the market price rose from 39β―% (3β―Mar) to 49β―% (7β―Mar).
IvΓ‘n Cepeda announces Aida QuilcuΓ© as vice-presidential candidate
Following his overwhelming majority in the parliamentary elections, IvΓ‘n Cepeda announced Aida QuilcuΓ© as his running mate, solidifying his ticket for the presidential race and reinforcing his campaign's focus on social justice and inclusion.
IvΓ‘nβ―Cepeda reveals Indigenous leader AΓdaβ―QuilcuΓ© as running mate
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%11%
Cepeda announced Indigenous leader AΓdaβ―QuilcuΓ© as his viceβpresidential running mate. The selection energized his base and sparked a brief rally in his price, which rose from 44β―% on 8β―Mar to a peak of 55β―% on 5β―Mar, before the later declines.
Paloma Valencia Wins Primary as Juan Daniel Oviedo Secures Second Place
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%1%
In the March 8 legislative elections and interparty primaries, Paloma Valencia won the Gran Consulta por Colombia with over 3 million votes, while Juan Daniel Oviedo finished second with over 1.2 million votes.
Paloma Valencia wins center-right primary, selects Juan Daniel Oviedo as running mate
Paloma Valencia secured the center-right nomination and chose Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential candidate, consolidating the right-wing vote and affecting the market dynamics for Oviedo and Valencia.
Paloma Valencia wins center-right primary and confirms Juan Daniel Oviedo as running mate
Paloma Valencia won the center-right primary decisively and selected Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential candidate, consolidating the center-right ticket for the May 31 election.
Paloma Valencia wins center-right primary with significant majority
Claudia LΓ³pez (IND) dips to 0%1%
Paloma Valencia secured a decisive victory in the center-right primary election, obtaining over 3 million votes and becoming the official candidate of the Democratic Center party. This positioned her as a leading conservative contender ahead of the presidential election.
IvΓ‘nβ―Cepeda incriminated by childβvictim video; Vickyβ―DΓ‘vila condemns him
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 36%8%
A video circulated showing victims of the FARC confronting Cepeda over the number of child victims, generating negative social media reactions and pulling his market price down by eight points the next day.
Paloma Valencia wins Democratic Center primary with over 3 million votes
Paloma Valencia jumps to 23%14%
Paloma Valencia's decisive victory in the Democratic Center primary established her as the official far-right candidate, initially boosting her market price. However, her support later declined as the campaign progressed.
Paloma Valencia Wins Center-Right Primary as Legislative Elections Narrow the Field
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro dips to 48%1%
The March 8 interparty primaries and legislative elections consolidated the candidate field, establishing Paloma Valencia as the definitive center-right candidate and narrowing the path for other contenders.
Paloma Valencia Wins Gran Consulta Primary as Juan Daniel Oviedo Finishes Second
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%1%
In the interparty primaries held alongside the legislative elections, Paloma Valencia won the Gran Consulta por Colombia with over 3 million votes, while Juan Daniel Oviedo finished second with over 1.2 million votes, ending his independent presidential run.
Juan Daniel Oviedo confirmed as vice-presidential candidate for Paloma Valencia
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) plunges to 0%50%
Juan Daniel Oviedo, after finishing second in the center-right primary, was confirmed as the vice-presidential running mate of Paloma Valencia, consolidating the center-right ticket for the presidential election.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda confronted over FARC child victim figures during campaign
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 39%8%
During the campaign, IvΓ‘n Cepeda was publicly confronted by victims of child recruitment by FARC, sparking political debate and criticism, including from rival candidate Vicky DΓ‘vila, impacting Cepeda's public image and market price.
Juan Daniel Oviedo surprises in Gran Consulta, later confirmed as Paloma Valencia's vice-presidential running mate
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) jumps to 6%5%
Juan Daniel Oviedo emerged as a surprise contender in the center-right Gran Consulta primary, finishing second and later becoming the vice-presidential candidate for Paloma Valencia. This boosted Oviedo's profile and affected his market price.
Juan Daniel Oviedo confirmed as vice-presidential running mate of Paloma Valencia
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) drops to 1%5%
Following the March 8 interparty consultations, Oviedo was confirmed as the vice-presidential candidate alongside Paloma Valencia, consolidating a center-right coalition and impacting Oviedo's market price which later declined as the campaign progressed.
Sergio Fajardo exits race after poor poll results
Sergio Fajardo (DC) plunges to 0%15%
Facing consistently low poll numbers, Sergio Fajardo suspended his campaign, driving his price to zero.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro peaks in polls amid strong campaign performance
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 56%17%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's market price peaked at 56% in early March 2026, reflecting strong debate performances and effective voter outreach that positioned him as a leading candidate.
Ivan Cepeda leads in polls as presidential field narrows
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 44%5%
Senator Ivan Cepeda, from President Gustavo Petro's coalition, maintained a lead in polls, influencing market expectations for the upcoming election.
Ex-mayor Jaime AndrΓ©s BeltrΓ‘n joins Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign as regional manager
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 40%3%
Jaime AndrΓ©s BeltrΓ‘n, known as 'the Bukele Colombian', abandoned his Senate bid to support De la Espriella's campaign, strengthening the candidate's regional presence and boosting his market position.
Interparty primaries narrow Colombia presidential field
Paloma Valencia drops to 10%12%
Several candidates competed in interparty primaries, leading to a narrowing of the field and causing price adjustments for candidates like Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella as voter preferences consolidated.
Political violence impacts candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay's legacy
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 30%8%
The assassination of Miguel Uribe Turbay in 2025 continued to resonate in the political landscape, with his father's candidacy and the unresolved motives behind the killing influencing voter sentiment and market prices for related candidates.
DEA labels President Gustavo Petro a priority target in drug investigation
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%
The U.S. DEAβs designation of President Petro as a priority target raised concerns about his administrationβs integrity, leading to a decline in support for candidates aligned with his coalition, particularly impacting IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castroβs odds.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges in polls amid growing grassroots support
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 50%11%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's market probability jumped to 50% as grassroots movements and endorsements bolstered his campaign, signaling a shift in voter sentiment.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces lawsuit against Netflix
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 38%1%
De la Espriella publicly announced legal action against Netflix to defend his family's honor, which increased his media visibility and may have influenced public perception and market interest in his candidacy.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate
De la Espriella's announcement of economist and ex-minister JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential candidate strengthened his campaign's credibility and appeal, leading to increased market confidence and price gains.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda emerges as progressive frontrunner in presidential polls
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 40%3%
Polls in early 2026 showed IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading the presidential race with increasing support, positioning him as the likely successor to President Gustavo Petro. This early momentum established Cepeda as a key contender and influenced market expectations.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda emerges as frontrunner in presidential polls
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 40%3%
Polls in early 2026 showed IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading the presidential race with increasing support, positioning him as the likely successor to President Gustavo Petro. This boosted market confidence in Cepeda's chances.
Father of slain candidate Miguelβ―Uribe launches presidential bid
Miguelβ―Uribeβ―LondoΓ±o announced his candidacy, reviving the Uribe political brand and drawing attention to the Historical Pact coalition, where IvΓ‘nβ―Cepeda is a leading figure, boosting his perceived electability.
Abelardo de la Espriella empata con IvΓ‘n Cepeda segΓΊn firma internacional de predicciones
Polymarket's international prediction platform showed De La Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda tied at 39% and 38% respectively, indicating a competitive race with De La Espriella gaining ground in global prediction markets.
Abelardo de la Espriella reports anonymous military threat from ELN guerrilla
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 40%1%
Abelardo de la Espriella publicly denounced receiving an anonymous threat declaring him a military target by the ELN guerrilla, highlighting the security challenges in his campaign and possibly increasing his support among voters favoring strong security policies.
Abelardo de la Espriella pledges military offensive to restore security and boost economy
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 40%2%
Abelardo de la Espriella, a right-wing presidential candidate, declared plans for a military crackdown to improve security and economic growth. This stance differentiated him from his left-wing opponent and increased his support in polls, reflected in market price gains.
Abelardo de la Espriella joins international right-wing alliance with Carta de Madrid
De la Espriella formalized his adhesion to the Carta de Madrid, aligning with prominent right-wing leaders like Javier Milei and Santiago Abascal. This move bolstered his international profile and solidified his right-wing credentials, likely contributing to early market confidence in his candidacy.
AtlasIntel/Semana poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella leading first round
A major poll by AtlasIntel for Semana placed De la Espriella in the lead with 33%, narrowly ahead of IvΓ‘n Cepeda at 31.3%. This early polling data likely supported market confidence in De la Espriella's viability as a frontrunner.
Abelardo de la Espriella leads AtlasIntel/Semana poll for first round
A major poll by AtlasIntel for Semana showed Abelardo de la Espriella leading the first round with 33%, narrowly ahead of IvΓ‘n Cepeda at 31.3%. This early poll established De la Espriella as a top contender, boosting his market price from 39% to 39%.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda files criminal complaint against ex-president Pastrana over Epstein-Maxwell links
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%20%
Senator and presidential candidate IvΓ‘n Cepeda announced a criminal complaint against former President AndrΓ©s Pastrana for alleged misuse of military assets to entertain Ghislaine Maxwell, linked to Jeffrey Epstein. This controversy heightened political tensions and affected Cepeda's campaign image.
Abelardo de la Espriella leads early presidential polls
Early 2026 polls showed Abelardo de la Espriella leading the presidential race, with IvΓ‘n Cepeda close behind. These polls set the tone for a competitive election, highlighting the polarization between right-wing and left-wing candidates.
Colombiaβs left narrows 2026 presidential field to IvΓ‘n Cepeda, Carolina Corcho, Daniel Quintero
Several left-wing candidates withdrew from the race, consolidating support behind IvΓ‘n Cepeda and narrowing the field for the Historic Pact coalition. This consolidation strengthened Cepedaβs position as the leading leftist candidate ahead of the election.
Trump endorses farβright Colombian candidate Deβ―laβ―Espriella
A U.S. Congressional report noted that former President Trump endorsed Espriella, a move Petro criticized as interference. The mention sparked a modest uptick in Espriellaβs price from 39β―% (Febβ―8) to 39β―% (Febβ―14) and helped sustain his gradual rise.
De La Espriella announces economist JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo as running mate
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%5%
De La Espriella selected JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo, a former finance minister, as his vice-presidential candidate, enhancing his campaign's credibility and appealing to moderate voters, which contributed to his market gains.
Presidential primaries set for March 8 with reduced left and center-right fields
Colombia's presidential primaries will be held alongside legislative elections on March 8, 2026. The left's Pacto HistΓ³rico primary is expected to be won by IvΓ‘n Cepeda, while the center-right primary features Claudia LΓ³pez and Leonardo Huertas, reflecting a narrowing of candidates ahead of the general election.
Febβ―2026 poll shows Cepeda solidly ahead, others stuck near 1β―%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 40%1%
A February poll released after the electionβcampaign blackout reaffirmed Cepedaβs lead at ~32β―% and kept all other candidates in the lowβsingleβdigit range, cementing the marketβs view that the race had effectively narrowed to Cepeda versus a fragmented opposition.
Cepeda files criminal complaint against exβpresident Pastrana over EpsteinβMaxwell documents
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro dips to 36%3%
Cepeda announced he would file a criminal complaint against former president Pastrana over deβclassified US DOJ files linking Pastrana to Jeffreyβ―Epstein and Ghislaineβ―Maxwell. The allegation generated negative press for Cepeda and coincides with the first sharp decline in his price (from 38β―% on 7β―Feb to 39β―% on 13β―Feb, then a dip to 36β―% by midβMarch).
IvΓ‘n Cepeda files criminal complaint against ex-President Pastrana over Epstein links
IvΓ‘n Cepeda announced a criminal complaint against former President AndrΓ©s Pastrana regarding alleged connections to Jeffrey Epstein's associates, aiming to investigate misuse of military assets. This legal action heightened Cepeda's profile and influenced market sentiment.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda sues former President Pastrana over Epstein-Maxwell allegations
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 39%1%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda filed a criminal complaint against former President AndrΓ©s Pastrana following declassified US documents linking Pastrana to associates of Jeffrey Epstein, stirring political controversy ahead of the election.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda leads polls as progressive front-runner in Colombia's 2026 presidential race
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 39%2%
Polls in early 2026 showed IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading the presidential race with strong support from progressive voters and those aligned with President Gustavo Petro's social reforms. This established Cepeda as the main left-wing candidate and front-runner in the election.
Abelardo de la Espriella signals political reconciliation with Vicky DΓ‘vila
De la Espriella publicly responded to Vicky DΓ‘vila's message endorsing a united front against IvΓ‘n Cepeda, signaling a strategic reconciliation within the right-wing camp. This rapprochement was seen as an effort to consolidate support and strengthen De la Espriella's position, impacting market perceptions positively.
Poll Shows Tight Race Between Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda
A poll published on February 7, 2026, indicated a statistical tie between Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda, reflecting a highly competitive race. This poll likely contributed to price stabilization and minor fluctuations in their market positions.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Withdraws from Leftist Consultation and Commits to First Round Run
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 39%1%
Following his exclusion from the leftist consultation, IvΓ‘n Cepeda officially withdrew from the March 8 consultation and announced he would run directly in the first round of the presidential election. This strategic shift affected his market price and the dynamics of the left-wing vote.
Assassination of Abelardo de la Espriella's Campaign Coordinator in Meta
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 39%3%
On February 5, 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella's local campaign coordinator and an advisor were assassinated in Cubarral, Meta. This violent attack highlighted the dangerous security environment for political actors in Colombia and led to a sharp increase in Abelardo de la Espriella's market price as his campaign gained sympathy and attention.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda excluded from left-wing primary, forced to run directly in first round
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 30%9%
Colombia's National Electoral Council excluded IvΓ‘n Cepeda from the left-wing interparty primary, causing uncertainty and a drop in his market price from 39% to 30%. This decision fragmented the left-wing coalition and altered the electoral dynamics.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Barred from Key Leftist Primary by Electoral Authority
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro dips to 37%3%
On February 4, 2026, Colombia's electoral authority barred IvΓ‘n Cepeda from participating in a key leftist primary, weakening his coalition and forcing him to adjust his electoral strategy. This event caused fluctuations in his market price as it introduced uncertainty about his path to the presidency.
Colombian electoral authority bars IvΓ‘n Cepeda from left-wing primary
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%
The National Electoral Council denied IvΓ‘n Cepeda participation in the left-wing inter-party primary scheduled for March 8, 2026. This exclusion led Cepeda to announce he would run directly in the first round, impacting his campaign strategy and market perception.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda denied participation in leftβwing primary by CNE
The CNEβs decision to exclude Cepeda from the leftβwing interβparty primary removed his main path to the presidency, prompting traders to push his market price upward as the campaign shifted to a direct firstβround runβoff strategy.
Gustavo Petro meets US President Trump, easing diplomatic tensions
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 42%8%
The highβprofile meeting reduced concerns about US sanctions, indirectly benefiting candidates aligned with Petroβs agenda, notably IvΓ‘n Cepeda.
Colombian President Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 41%7%
A diplomatic thaw between Petro and Trump, marked by preparations for a high-stakes meeting, reduced political tensions and improved market confidence in the left-wing coalition's stability, benefiting IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's standing.
Abelardo De La Espriella announces JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo as running mate
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 44%4%
The candidate announced economist and former minister JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential running mate, signaling a strong, credible team that could appeal to a broader electorate and boost his campaign momentum.
Abelardo de la Espriella se acerca en ΓΊltima encuesta AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel's latest poll showed De La Espriella at 32.9% and IvΓ‘n Cepeda at 37.6%, with De La Espriella gaining ground as the race intensified.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate
The announcement of JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo, an experienced economist and former minister, as de la Espriella's running mate strengthened his campaign's credibility and market position.
Abelardo de la Espriella leads AtlasIntel/Semana presidential poll
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 37%2%
A poll conducted between January 27 and February 4 showed De la Espriella leading the presidential race with 33.0% against IvΓ‘n Cepeda's 31.3%, indicating a tight contest and growing support for the right-wing candidate.
AtlasIntel Poll Places Abelardo de la Espriella in the Lead
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 48%15%
A new nationwide poll by AtlasIntel showed far-right independent candidate Abelardo de la Espriella leading first-round voting intentions, causing a sharp shift in prediction market odds.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 38%4%
President Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension and sanctions, which influenced market perceptions of political stability and candidate viability, particularly benefiting IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro.
De La Espriella Backs Antioquia Education Leader PatiΓ±o
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 39%1%
De La Espriella formally allied with Luis Guillermo PatiΓ±o, a Creemos candidate, to promote education reform. This strategic partnership likely strengthened his campaign program and market position.
Creemos endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for 2026 presidency
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 47%11%
The Creemos political movement formally endorsed De la Espriella, giving the farβright candidate a legitimacy boost that lifted his market price from the midβ30β―% region to a peak of 47β―% shortly after.
Abelardo de la Espriella Announces Education Alliance with Antioquia Councillor Luis Guillermo PatiΓ±o
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 46%5%
De La Espriella formally allied with PatiΓ±o, bringing regional education expertise to his campaign and strengthening his opposition platform against the current government.
Creemos movement endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for presidency
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 41%5%
The endorsement by the Creemos political movement, led by Medellin's mayor Federico Gutierrez, significantly strengthened De la Espriella's campaign by consolidating right-wing support and signaling a shift in opposition dynamics. This alliance contributed to De la Espriella's rise in market prices.
Medellin Mayor Federico Gutierrez endorses Abelardo de la Espriella's presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 38%2%
The endorsement from Medellin's mayor Federico Gutierrez bolstered Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign, signaling growing regional alliances and strengthening his position against IvΓ‘n Cepeda in the upcoming election.
Federico GutiΓ©rrez's Creemos Movement Officially Endorses Abelardo de la Espriella
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 35%1%
The political movement Creemos, led by MedellΓn Mayor Federico GutiΓ©rrez, officially endorsed Abelardo de la Espriella, consolidating right-wing support behind his populist candidacy.
Colombian President Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 42%4%
President Gustavo Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw that influenced market confidence in candidates associated with Petro's coalition, including IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro.
Abelardo de la Espriella lidera la 1Βͺ vuelta en la encuesta Atlas-Semana
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 38%2%
AtlasIntel's Semana poll showed De La Espriella leading with 33.0% in the first round scenario, ahead of IvΓ‘n Cepeda at 31.3%, signaling strong early campaign performance and market confidence.
Abelardo de la Espriella leads AtlasIntel/Semana poll
Abelardo de la Espriella leads the first round in the AtlasIntel/Semana poll with 33%, narrowly ahead of IvΓ‘n Cepeda at 31.3%, indicating a tight race with significant undecided voters.
New Poll Shows Leftist Candidate IvΓ‘n Cepeda Leading Voters' Preferences
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 40%3%
A new poll published on Sunday showed leftist candidate IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading voter preferences, consolidating his position as the primary contender for the left.
Poll shows IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading presidential vote intentions
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 40%7%
A GAD3 poll released in January 2026 showed IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading with 30-40% voter intention, ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella, boosting Cepeda's market position as the left-wing frontrunner.
De La Espriella urges Trump to demand full guarantees for Colombian democracy
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 47%3%
De La Espriella publicly called on U.S. President Trump to ensure democratic guarantees in Colombia's election, criticizing President Petro and raising his profile as a defender of democracy against leftist influence, which likely boosted his market support.
RegistradurΓa Certifies Signatures for Murillo, LΓ³pez, and Oviedo
Colombia's National Civil Registry officially certified the signatures collected by independent candidates, formally enabling them to continue in the presidential race.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming meeting with U.S. President Trump
President Petro announced optimism about a scheduled White House meeting with U.S. President Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension including visa revocations and sanctions. This development suggested potential easing of bilateral tensions, which could affect election dynamics and voter confidence in Petroβs coalition.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 39%19%
Senator IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro, representing the Historical Pact coalition, gained significant support in polls, reflecting his rising prominence as a leading left-wing candidate. This surge influenced market prices, positioning him as a top contender.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws from presidential race, endorses IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) dips to 0%1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo formally withdrew from the presidential race shortly before the first round, endorsing IvΓ‘n Cepeda to unify the left-wing vote and avoid fragmentation, consolidating Cepeda's position as the leading progressive candidate.
Abelardo de la Espriella joins international right-wing alliance with Carta de Madrid
De la Espriella formalized his adhesion to the Carta de Madrid, aligning with international right-wing leaders to strengthen his campaign's ideological positioning and gain international support.
Abelardo de la Espriella Signs Madrid Charter to Align with International Right
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 36%4%
Abelardo de la Espriella met with Vox leader Santiago Abascal in Spain to sign the Madrid Charter, strengthening his international conservative credentials.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Denounces False Health Rumors and Confirms He Will Not Withdraw from Campaign
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 38%4%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda publicly debunked viral social media rumors claiming he was suffering from cancer and planning to withdraw from the presidential race, stabilizing his campaign.
Abelardo de la Espriella Announces Vice-Presidential Candidate JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 47%1%
De La Espriella announced his vice-presidential running mate, economist JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo, signaling a strong, credible running team for his campaign.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws from presidential race
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) dips to 0%2%
Former minister Luis Gilberto Murillo announced he would not continue his candidacy, causing his market price to collapse to zero.
Poll shows De La Espriella would defeat Cepeda in presidential runoff
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%9%
An AtlasIntel poll indicated De La Espriella leading voter intent and beating Cepeda in a hypothetical runoff, signaling a shift in voter sentiment and strengthening De La Espriella's market position.
Poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella leading first-round voter intent
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%12%
A poll released in January 2026 indicated Abelardo de la Espriella leading voter intention with 28%, ahead of IvΓ‘n Cepeda at 26.5%, signaling a shift in voter preferences and boosting De la Espriella's market price significantly.
Abelardo de la Espriella Leads New AtlasIntel Poll with 28% Support
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 48%16%
An AtlasIntel poll showed conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella leading the presidential race, boosting his market standing as the strongest right-wing option.
AtlasIntel Poll Shows Abelardo de la Espriella Leading First-Round Intentions and Runoff Scenarios
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 47%15%
A major AtlasIntel poll published by Semana showed conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella leading first-round voter intent at 28% and defeating left-wing candidate IvΓ‘n Cepeda in a hypothetical runoff.
Presumed Attempt on Abelardo de la Espriella's Campaign Frustrated in Envigado
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 46%1%
A man with weapons and binoculars was caught trying to infiltrate the campaign event in Envigado, leading to security concerns and a campaign statement about the need for guarantees.
AtlasIntel poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading presidential race
A January 2026 AtlasIntel poll placed Abelardo de la Espriella at 28% and IvΓ‘n Cepeda at 26.5%, confirming a competitive two-candidate race and boosting market confidence in both.
Abelardo de la Espriella Challenges Main Left-Wing Rival IvΓ‘n Cepeda to Presidential Debate
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 32%5%
Right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella publicly invited his main left-wing rival, IvΓ‘n Cepeda, to a structured policy debate, highlighting the growing polarization of the race.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 34%3%
President Petro's confrontational stance against U.S. policies and his defense of national sovereignty heightened political tensions, influencing voter sentiment and market perceptions of left-wing candidate IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's prospects.
Claudia LΓ³pez criticizes Donald Trump over threats against Colombian president
Presidential candidate Claudia LΓ³pez publicly criticized former U.S. President Donald Trump for his threats against Colombia's President Gustavo Petro, highlighting the polarized political climate and international tensions influencing the election environment.
Poll shows IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading Colombia's 2026 presidential race with 31.9%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 40%4%
An Invamer poll released at the end of 2025 showed IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading the presidential race with 31.9%, ahead of right-wing and centrist candidates. This reinforced his market position as the favorite.
IvΓ‘nβ―Cepeda leads Colombiaβs 2026 presidential race in Invamer poll
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 40%1%
A lateβDecember Invamer poll confirmed Cepedaβs dominance (β31β―%) while showing all other candidates, including Deβ―laβ―Espriella, LΓ³pez, DΓ‘vila, Murillo, Luna, Oviedo and BolΓvar, below 5β―%. The poll triggered another round of price collapses, pushing most to 0β1β―% levels.
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o announces presidential bid after son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 44%6%
Following the death of his son Miguel Uribe Turbay, a slain presidential hopeful, Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o launched his own campaign to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the market by introducing a new contender and shifting support within the conservative base.
Polymarket shows IvΓ‘n Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella neck-and-neck in predictions
Cryptocurrency-based prediction markets indicated a close race between IvΓ‘n Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, reflecting divided voter sentiment and influencing market prices for both candidates.
Abelardo de la Espriella rises as right-wing frontrunner in polls and markets
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 38%12%
Abelardo de la Espriella gained momentum as a populist right-wing candidate, leading polls and prediction markets, positioning himself as a major challenger to IvΓ‘n Cepeda and reshaping the electoral landscape.
Polymarket prediction market shows tight race between IvΓ‘n Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella
The cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket reflected a close contest between IvΓ‘n Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, each with roughly equal odds of winning, indicating a divided electorate and uncertainty in the race.
Polymarket shows close race between IvΓ‘n Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella
Polymarket prediction data indicated a neck-and-neck race between IvΓ‘n Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, each with roughly 36-37% implied probability of victory. This reflected market uncertainty and balanced expectations between the two frontrunners.
Paloma Valencia surges after strong debate performance
Paloma Valencia surges to 31%26%
Paloma Valenciaβs impressive showing in a televised debate boosted her visibility, leading to a sharp rise in her market price.
Right-wing coalition 'Gran Consulta' forms to unify opposition candidates
Several right-wing and centrist candidates including Vicky DΓ‘vila, David Luna SΓ‘nchez, Juan Daniel Oviedo, and others formed the 'Gran Consulta' coalition to unify their candidacies and avoid vote splitting, impacting their individual market support.
Juan Daniel Oviedo joins rightβwing βGran Consultaβ coalition
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 1%2%
The rightβwing βGran Consultaβ announced Oviedoβs participation as one of its nine candidates. The announcement failed to improve his market perception, and his price slipped from 3β―% to 1β―% shortly thereafter.
Right-wing remains divided despite 'Gran Consulta' coalition efforts
Despite attempts to unify, the right-wing candidates including David Luna, Vicky DΓ‘vila, and Juan Daniel Oviedo remained fragmented, weakening their collective electoral strength and reflected in declining market prices for some candidates.
Right-Wing Leaders Form 'Gran Consulta por Colombia' Coalition
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) dips to 1%1%
Six right-wing and centrist political figures agreed to form a coalition and hold a joint primary in March 2026 to consolidate the opposition against the left.
Right-wing coalition forms 'Gran Consulta' primary to unify candidates
Six right-wing leaders, including David Luna and Vicky DΓ‘vila, formed the 'Gran Consulta' coalition to hold an interparty primary on March 8, 2026, aiming to consolidate the right-wing vote and present a unified candidate against the left.
Colombiaβs right remains divided ahead of the 2026 elections
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) drops to 1%11%
The announcement of the βGran Consultaβ β a broad rightβwing primary β highlighted internal division and reduced expectations for individual rightβwing candidates, especially Vickyβ―DΓ‘vila and Luisβ―Gilbertoβ―Murillo, whose prices fell to the low singleβdigit levels.
Gran Consulta por Colombia Coalition Officially Launches
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) dips to 1%2%
A broad center-right coalition named 'Gran Consulta' was launched to unite several independent and conservative candidates, including Vicky DΓ‘vila, David Luna, and Juan Daniel Oviedo.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 41%7%
Abelardo de la Espriella announced economist and former minister JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential candidate, strengthening his campaign with an experienced figure and boosting his market position.
Paloma Valencia wins Democratic Center primary as right-wing consolidates
Paloma Valencia was selected as the candidate for the far-right Democratic Center party, signaling a move toward a more moderate right-wing candidacy. This development contributed to the fragmentation and realignment of right-wing forces ahead of the election.
Centro DemocrΓ‘tico selects Paloma Valencia as its 2026 presidential candidate
Claudia LΓ³pez (IND) plunges to 12%38%
Colombiaβs powerful right-wing Centro DemocrΓ‘tico party chose Senator Paloma Valencia as its candidate, signaling a shift toward a more moderate right-wing approach to challenge the left in the upcoming election.
Paloma Valencia nominated as Democratic Center's presidential candidate
Paloma Valencia plunges to 7%15%
The Democratic Center party officially nominated Paloma Valencia as its candidate for the 2026 presidential elections, marking a consolidation of the right-wing vote and boosting her market position. This event was significant for right-wing voters and affected related candidates' market shares.
Centro DemocrΓ‘tico party selects Paloma Valencia as presidential candidate
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 38%1%
Colombiaβs Centro DemocrΓ‘tico party chose Senator Paloma Valencia as its candidate, signaling a shift toward a more moderate right. This development influenced the right-wing candidate landscape, indirectly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's market position.
Vicky DΓ‘vila formalizes presidential candidacy with over 1.3 million signatures
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) plunges to 1%27%
Vicky DΓ‘vila officially registered her presidential candidacy, emphasizing a hardline security agenda and positioning herself as a citizen alternative without traditional party support. Despite initial polling strength, her market price declined sharply over time.
Vicky DΓ‘vila officially registers presidential candidacy with over 1.3 million signatures
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) plunges to 1%27%
On December 11, 2025, journalist and independent candidate Vicky DΓ‘vila formalized her presidential candidacy by submitting over 1.3 million signatures, marking a significant step in her campaign despite later declines in market support.
Vicky DΓ‘vila confirms presidential candidacy with over 1.3 million signatures
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) drops to 2%6%
Investigative journalist Vicky DΓ‘vila officially registered her presidential candidacy backed by a large number of signatures, entering the race as a nontraditional candidate and impacting her market position.
Vicky DΓ‘vila files presidential candidacy with over 1.3β―million signatures
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) drops to 1%7%
DΓ‘vila formally submitted more than 1.3β―million signatures to the RegistradurΓa, confirming her candidacy. The move was interpreted as a loss of momentum for a candidate previously seen as a possible contender, pushing her market probability from 8β―% (Novβ―2025) down to 1β―% by early February 2026.
Reuters poll shows Gustavoβ―BolΓvar slipping below 5β―%
Gustavo BolΓvar (HC) drops to 0%11%
A Reuters poll reported BolΓvarβs support slipping below 5β―% after earlier speculation about his candidacy. The market price fell from 11β―% to 1β―% in the following days, reflecting dwindling voter interest.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro gains momentum in presidential race
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 34%18%
Following a period of low polling, IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro saw a significant increase in market support as his campaign gained traction.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro gains traction with policy proposals
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 34%14%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's detailed policy proposals and increased media presence boosted his support, reflected in a rise from 20% to 34% in market prices.
Luisβ―Gilbertoβ―Murillo registers candidacy with 1.2β―million signatures
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) dips to 0%2%
Murillo formally submitted his candidacy and signatures to the RegistradurΓa on 9β―Decβ―2025. The entry of a wellβknown former foreign minister caused his market price to collapse to 0β―% as traders reassigned support to other candidates.
IvΓ‘n Cepedaβs poll surge puts him at 42β―% support
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 43%25%
Cepedaβs campaign released a poll showing a 42β―% lead, prompting a sudden rally in his odds and a jump in his market price from 18β―% (Novβ―28) to 43β―% (Decβ―7).
Invamer poll places IvΓ‘n Cepeda well ahead with 31.9% of vote share
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 36%4%
The Invamer poll published in early December 2025 showed IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading with 31.9%, significantly ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 18.2%. This poll influenced market prices, tightening the race between Cepeda and De la Espriella.
Abelardo De la Espriella Confirms He Will Skip Right-Wing Primary
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 35%5%
Right-wing frontrunner Abelardo De la Espriella announced he would not participate in the March 2026 interparty primary, choosing to run an independent campaign instead.
Claudiaβ―LΓ³pez confirms enough signatures to run independently
Claudia LΓ³pez (IND) dips to 0%2%
Claudiaβ―LΓ³pez announced she had collected enough signatures to submit her independent candidacy, shifting her from a marginal position to a more visible contender. Her market price fell to 0β―% shortly after, reflecting the limited impact of the announcement in a fragmented field.
Claudia LΓ³pez formalizes participation in March 2026 consultation
Claudia LΓ³pez (IND) drops to 6%7%
Claudia LΓ³pez officially announced her intention to participate in the March 2026 interparty consultation, aiming to secure a presidential nomination, which affected her market standing.
Abelardo De La Espriella delivers nearly 4.9 million signatures to formalize presidential candidacy
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 56%6%
Abelardo De La Espriella officially submitted a record number of signatures to the RegistradurΓa, marking a significant milestone in his campaign and signaling strong grassroots support. This bolstered his position as a leading right-wing candidate, reflected in his market price rise.
Abelardoβ―deβ―laβ―Espriella submits 4.8β―million signatures, officializing candidacy
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 39%18%
Deβ―laβ―Espriella delivered more than 4.8β―million signatures to the RegistradurΓa, a symbolic milestone that boosted his market price from the lowβ30s to a peak of 56β―% on 1β―Septβ―2025 and kept it above 39β―% at the end of the window.
Revelations about Abelardo de la Espriella's ties to controversial figures
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 36%5%
Reports surfaced linking Abelardo de la Espriella to Alex Saab and paramilitary groups, casting doubts on his candidacy and causing a decline in his market support.
DEA designates Colombian President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug probe
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 13%7%
The U.S. DEA named President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' in investigations into alleged drug trafficking ties, causing political uncertainty and affecting the market's perception of candidates aligned with or against Petro, notably IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro.
Poll places IvΓ‘n Cepeda well ahead with 31.9% and Abelardo de la Espriella at 18.2%
The Invamer poll published in early December showed IvΓ‘n Cepeda significantly ahead of rivals, including Abelardo de la Espriella, influencing market prices to reflect Cepeda's growing lead.
Colombia authorizes euthanasia plan for invasive hippos linked to Pablo Escobar
The Colombian government approved a protocol to euthanize about 80 hippos descended from Pablo Escobarβs private zoo to control their population. The controversial environmental policy sparked local debate and reflected broader governance challenges, indirectly influencing public opinion on leadership and policy effectiveness.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda leads presidential vote intentions in Invamer poll ahead of 2026 elections
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 40%27%
The Invamer poll released on 30β―Novβ―2025 showed Cepeda at 31.9β―% versus 18.2β―% for Deβ―laβ―Espriella, driving his market price up from 13β―% (early Sep) to around 40β―% by midβJanuary 2026.
Invamer poll puts IvΓ‘nβ―Cepeda ahead with 31.9β―% support
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 40%5%
A Decemberβ―2025 Invamer poll gave Cepeda 31.9β―% support, making him the clear frontrunner. The poll triggered a rise in his market price from the midβ30β―% to around 40β―% region.
IvΓ‘nβ―Cepeda leads vote intentions in December poll
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 39%26%
A second Invamer poll published on 1β―Dec confirmed Cepedaβs lead at 31.9β―% and showed his support rising sharply to over 40β―% in the market, pushing his price from the lowβ30s to the highβ40s.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda tops new national poll with 31.9% ahead of 2026 election
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 37%14%
An Invamer poll released showed IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading with 31.9% of voting intention, significantly ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella and others. This poll confirmed Cepeda's strong position and affected market expectations.
Poll shows IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading presidential race with 31.9% support
A nationwide poll by Invamer revealed IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading the presidential race with 31.9% voter intention, ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella and Sergio Fajardo. This poll indicated strong support for Cepeda among left-leaning and independent voters, reinforcing his front-runner status.
Invamer Poll Shows IvΓ‘n Cepeda Dominating 2026 Voting Intentions
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 33%15%
A major nationwide Invamer poll showed Senator IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading the presidential race with 31.9% support, far ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 18.2%.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda leads presidential vote intentions in Colombia's 2026 election
A poll by Invamer showed Senator IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading with 31.9% support, significantly ahead of right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella and centrist Sergio Fajardo. This poll reinforced Cepeda's position as the progressive front-runner and boosted market confidence in his candidacy.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda leads presidential polls with strong progressive support
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 41%9%
A poll by Invamer showed IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading the presidential race with 31.9% support, far ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella and others. This established Cepeda as the progressive front-runner and boosted his market position.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Dominates Invamer Poll as Right-Wing Opposition Remains Fragmented
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 43%25%
The first major post-embargo poll showed Senator IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading with 31.9% support, far ahead of conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella.
Invamer poll shows Claudiaβ―LΓ³pez at 4β―% support
Claudia LΓ³pez (IND) drops to 0%13%
A national Invamer poll published on 30β―Novβ―2025 gave LΓ³pez only 4β―% support, the lowest among the listed candidates. The market responded with a nearβzero price, dropping from 13β―% to 0β―% within days.
Luis Gilberto Murillo's support falls to near zero in polls
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) dips to 0%3%
Luis Gilberto Murillo's market price collapsed as polls showed negligible support, effectively ending his viability as a contender in the election.
DEA designates President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug probe
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 17%9%
The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration named Colombian President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' in investigations into alleged ties to drug traffickers. This development heightened political tensions and influenced market perceptions of candidates aligned with or opposed to Petro.
Abelardo De La Espriella unveils hardline security proposal with extreme-isolation megaprisons
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 35%2%
De La Espriella proposed a tough-on-crime policy featuring mega-prisons with extreme isolation to combat organized crime, positioning himself as the strongest candidate on security issues. This bolstered his appeal among voters concerned about crime, contributing to his rise in the market.
Poll shows IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading Colombia's presidential race with 20.9% support
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 23%5%
A nationwide poll by Centro Nacional de Consultoria showed IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading with 20.9% support, ahead of right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella at 14.4%. This polling data reinforced Cepeda's frontrunner position and influenced market prices.
DEA labels President Gustavoβ―Petro a priority target in drug probe
U.S. prosecutors identified President Petro as a priority target, raising concerns about the ruling partyβs stability and indirectly lowering support for candidates associated with Petroβs coalition, while benefiting opposition figures like IvΓ‘nβ―Cepeda.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro gains momentum with key endorsements
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 23%9%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's market price rose from 14% to 23% in mid-November 2025, boosted by endorsements from influential political figures and positive media coverage enhancing his campaign visibility.
Abelardo de la Espriella gains momentum with new campaign alliances
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%12%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price rose from 32% to 44% in early November 2025, coinciding with strategic campaign moves and endorsements, boosting his electoral prospects.
First public poll shows Fajardo, Cepeda, and De la Espriella leading 2026 presidential race
A Cifras y Conceptos poll released after a temporary ban on publishing electoral polls showed Sergio Fajardo, IvΓ‘n Cepeda, and Abelardo de la Espriella as the leading candidates, highlighting a competitive race with a fragmented field.
Fajardo, Cepeda and De la Espriella lead first public poll for 2026 election
A Cifras y Conceptos poll showed Sergio Fajardo, IvΓ‘n Cepeda, and Abelardo de la Espriella as leading candidates, setting the stage for a competitive race and shaping campaign strategies.
Poll shows IvΓ‘n Cepeda, Abelardo de la Espriella, and Sergio Fajardo leading presidential race
A Cifras y Conceptos poll revealed IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading with 20.9%, Abelardo de la Espriella second with 14.4%, and Sergio Fajardo third with 7.8%, highlighting the fragmented field and the prominence of Cepeda and De la Espriella as frontrunners.
First Public Poll After Embargo Shows Cepeda and De la Espriella Leading
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 25%7%
The release of the Cifras y Conceptos poll after the expiration of a national polling ban confirmed IvΓ‘n Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella as the dominant figures in their respective political spectrums.
Polls show Fajardo, Cepeda, and De la Espriella leading presidential race
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 56%6%
A major poll revealed Sergio Fajardo, IvΓ‘n Cepeda, and Abelardo de la Espriella as the top contenders, reflecting a fragmented field but clear frontrunners, influencing market prices accordingly.
Poll shows Fajardo, Cepeda, and De la Espriella leading presidential race
A public poll released in early November 2025 showed Sergio Fajardo, IvΓ‘n Cepeda, and Abelardo de la Espriella as the leading candidates for the 2026 presidential election, indicating a competitive race with these frontrunners.
First Public Poll Released Showing Fajardo, Cepeda, and De la Espriella Leading
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 35%5%
Following the expiration of a temporary ban on publishing electoral polls, the first public Cifras y Conceptos poll showed Cepeda and De la Espriella leading their respective ideological blocs.
Poll shows IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading presidential vote intentions in Colombia
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 39%11%
A poll by Invamer published in November 2025 showed Senator IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading the presidential race with 31.9% support, ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 18.2%. This poll reinforced Cepeda's position as the front-runner and influenced market expectations.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro gains poll momentum as left-wing candidate in Colombia
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 22%10%
Senator IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro, aligned with President Petroβs left-wing coalition, surged ahead in several polls, reflecting growing support for his platform. This shift impacted market prices, with Cepedaβs chances improving while others like Sergio Fajardo and Vicky DΓ‘vila declined.
Gustavo BolΓvar withdraws candidacy if IvΓ‘n Cepeda is nominated
Gustavo BolΓvar (HC) drops to 0%10%
Gustavo BolΓvar, a left-wing precandidate, announced he would withdraw his presidential bid if IvΓ‘n Cepeda secured the Historic Pact nomination, consolidating the left-wing field and affecting market dynamics.
Cifras y Conceptos poll puts Claudia LΓ³pez at 2β―% support ahead of 2026 elections
Claudia LΓ³pez (IND) drops to 0%6%
A Cifras y Conceptos poll published on 27β―Octβ―2025 showed LΓ³pez at just 2β―% support, prompting a steep decline in her market price from 6β―% (early Aug) to 0β―% by late Decβ―2025.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda elected as left's presidential candidate in Historic Pact primary
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%32%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda won the left-wing Historic Pact primary with 64% of the vote, becoming the coalition's official candidate for the 2026 presidential election. This solidified his frontrunner status on the left and impacted market prices accordingly.
Explosive attack kills 13 on bus in southwestern Colombia amid rising violence
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%6%
A deadly bombing on a bus in Cauca region killed 13 people and injured dozens, attributed to dissident armed groups linked to drug trafficking. The attack heightened security concerns and influenced voter preferences toward candidates promising tough measures against violence and crime.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda elected as Historic Pact's 2026 presidential candidate
IvΓ‘n Cepeda won the primary vote of the leftist Historic Pact coalition, becoming their official candidate and consolidating left-wing support ahead of the election, boosting his market position.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda wins Pacto HistΓ³rico primary decisively
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 31%13%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda won the Pacto HistΓ³rico internal consultation with over 65% of the vote, consolidating his position as the left-wing candidate and boosting his market price significantly.
IvΓ‘n Cepeda wins Historic Pact primary, becoming left's presidential candidate
IvΓ‘n Cepeda secured the nomination of the ruling left-wing Historic Pact coalition with a decisive primary victory, receiving over 64% of the vote. This solidified his position as the leading leftist candidate and front-runner in the presidential race.
Colombiaβs left picks IvΓ‘n Cepeda as 2026 presidential candidate
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%
The Historicβ―Pact primary confirmed IvΓ‘nβ―Cepeda as the leftβwing coalitionβs presidential candidate. The announcement gave Cepeda a decisive boost (price rose from ~38β―% to 40β―%) and pushed down the odds for all other contenders, especially those from the right and centreβright.
Abelardo de la Espriella gains endorsement from conservative party
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 38%10%
The Conservative Party officially endorsed Abelardo de la Espriella, raising his profile among rightβleaning voters and prompting a price increase.
Abelardo de la Espriella emerges as leading right-wing candidate
Abelardo de la Espriella gained prominence as a right-wing candidate with a strong digital presence and alliances, including naming JosΓ© Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential running mate, consolidating his position as a main contender on the right.
Abelardo de la Espriella joins international right-wing alliance with Carta de Madrid
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 35%14%
Abelardo de la Espriella formalized his adhesion to the Carta de Madrid, aligning with international right-wing leaders, which enhanced his profile and market support among conservative voters.
Abelardoβ―deβ―laβ―Espriella denounces attack on campaign team in Arauca
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 34%7%
An armed attack on Deβ―laβ―Espriellaβs campaign vehicle in Arauca was reported, raising concerns about security and damaging his momentum. The market reacted with a sharp dip from 41β―% to 34β―% within a few days.
Attack on Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign team in Arauca
The vehicle of Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign coordinator in Arauca was set on fire in an act of political intimidation, highlighting the tense and violent environment surrounding the election.
Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign team targeted in attack in Arauca
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 45%6%
An attack on Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign coordinator's vehicle in Arauca was condemned as political intimidation, highlighting the violent risks in the election and rallying support for De la Espriella.
Assassination of presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay shocks election race
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
The killing of Miguel Uribe Turbay, a prominent candidate, introduced volatility and reshaped the right-wing field, affecting market prices for Abelardo de la Espriella and others.
Assassination of presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay shocks Colombia
The assassination of Miguel Uribe Turbay during a campaign rally in June 2025 and his subsequent death in August 2025 shocked the nation, impacting the political landscape and influencing voter sentiment and market prices for related candidates, including Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o who later announced his candidacy.
Colombian officials report failure of FARC rebels to surrender assets as per peace deal
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 22%6%
The Colombian government revealed that former FARC rebels have not fully complied with the 2016 peace agreement, failing to surrender promised gold, land, and cash. This undermined peace efforts and raised security concerns, affecting voter sentiment and the standing of candidates promising stronger security measures.
First poll after gag lift shows Cepeda far ahead, others nearβzero
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 39%21%
The first public poll released after the temporary ban on publishing polls expired showed IvΓ‘nβ―Cepeda leading with ~31β―% while nearly all other candidates, including Deβ―laβ―Espriella, Murillo, DΓ‘vila, LΓ³pez, Luna, Oviedo and BolΓvar, were stuck below 5β―%. The sharp contrast caused a cascade of price drops for the lowerβranking candidates as market participants reassessed their chances.
Gustavo BolΓvar Withdraws from Left-Wing Primary to Endorse IvΓ‘n Cepeda
Gustavo BolΓvar (HC) drops to 3%8%
Former senator Gustavo BolΓvar withdrew his presidential candidacy from the Pacto HistΓ³rico primary, throwing his unconditional support behind Senator IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro and narrowing the left-wing field.
Historic Pact narrows left-wing presidential candidates to three
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 33%15%
Following President Gustavo Petro's intervention, the Historic Pact coalition reduced its presidential contenders to three, including IvΓ‘n Cepeda, consolidating his position as the left-wing frontrunner and influencing market confidence.
Gustavo BolΓvar Withdraws from Historic Pact Presidential Primary
Gustavo BolΓvar (HC) drops to 0%8%
Former senator Gustavo BolΓvar withdrew his candidacy from the ruling leftist coalition's primary, narrowing the field and consolidating support behind IvΓ‘n Cepeda.
Gustavo BolΓvar Withdraws from Left-Wing Presidential Primary
Gustavo BolΓvar (HC) dips to 2%4%
Former senator Gustavo BolΓvar announced his withdrawal from the Pacto HistΓ³rico primary, narrowing the left's field and causing his market odds to drop significantly.
Consejo de Estado admits tutela that could disqualify Juan Daniel Oviedo from presidential race
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) rises to 1%1%
A tutela filed against Oviedo was admitted by the Consejo de Estado, raising doubts about his eligibility. The legal uncertainty caused his market probability to fall to nearβzero (0β―% in Octβ―2025) before recovering slightly to 1β―% after a court decision in Januaryβ―2026.
Council of State threatens to disqualify Juan Daniel Oviedo
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%2%
A court ruling threatened to invalidate Oviedoβs candidacy, driving his market price down from 2β―% (Sepβ―22) to 0β―% (Sepβ―30). The decision was later reversed, but the damage to his market perception remained.
Council of State admits tutela to revisit Juanβ―Danielβ―Oviedoβs ineligibility case
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) rises to 1%1%
A citizenβs tutela seeking to reopen Oviedoβs ineligibility case was accepted by the Council of State. The uncertainty lifted his market price briefly from 0β―% to 1β―% on 23β―Sepβ―2025 and stayed at 1β―% through Februaryβ―2026.
NicolΓ‘s Maduro endorses Vicky DΓ‘vila for Colombia presidency, sparking controversy
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) drops to 19%9%
Venezuelan President NicolΓ‘s Maduro publicly declared support for Vicky DΓ‘vila's presidential candidacy, generating political debate and media attention in Colombia. This endorsement influenced perceptions of DΓ‘vila's campaign and market interest.
Vicky DΓ‘vila launches presidential campaign with hardline security agenda
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) plunges to 18%32%
Journalist Vicky DΓ‘vila entered the presidential race emphasizing a tough stance on drug trafficking and security, initially gaining attention but later losing market support as her campaign faltered.
Vickyβ―DΓ‘vila runs on hardβline security agenda
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) plunges to 1%27%
The same MiamiβHerald story presented DΓ‘vila as a topβtier contender, but her hardβline security platform sparked a backlash that sent her market price sharply down from 28β―% (early Aug) to 1β―% by Decβ―2025.
Vicky DΓ‘vila pushes βPlanβ―Colombiaβ―2.0β in Miami interview
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) drops to 1%11%
In a MiamiβHerald interview DΓ‘vila presented a hardβline security agenda and called for a βPlanβ―Colombiaβ―2.0β. The story generated a wave of media attention that coincided with the first sharp decline of her market price from 12β―% (Septβ―11) to 1β―% (Septβ―22). Analysts linked the drop to the perception that her platform was too narrowly focused for a fragmented field.
Writerβturnβcandidate Gustavoβ―BolΓvar reaches 12β―% in polls
Gustavo BolΓvar (HC) rises to 12%1%
A MiamiβHerald profile highlighted BolΓvarβs surge to about 12β―% support, prompting his market price to rise from singleβdigit levels to a high of 12β―% before falling again later in the window.
Vicky DΓ‘vila campaigns on hardline security platform targeting narcos and corruption
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) drops to 18%10%
Vicky DΓ‘vila positioned her campaign around a tough security agenda promising swift justice for drug traffickers, gaining media attention but facing polarized reactions, impacting her market support negatively over time.
Abelardo de la Espriella faces campaign challenges, support dips
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Following initial enthusiasm, Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign encountered setbacks including criticism and strategic missteps, causing his market support to drop from 50% to 27%.
Abelardo de la Espriella's support dips sharply after campaign missteps
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price dropped from 50% to 26% in early September 2025, likely due to negative media coverage and campaign errors that eroded voter confidence.
Gustavo BolΓvar proposes dismantling the National Electoral Council, then withdraws candidacy
Gustavo BolΓvar (HC) drops to 0%12%
BolΓvar publicly announced a platform to dismantle the National Electoral Council, but on 26β―Sepβ―2025 he withdrew from the race after the Historic Pact consolidated behind Cepeda, sending his market price from 12β―% (early Sep) to 0β―% by late Octβ―2025.
Poll shows IvΓ‘n Cepeda leading historic pact coalition
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 25%12%
A national poll released in early September placed IvΓ‘n Cepeda at the forefront of the Historical Pact, boosting his perceived electability and driving his price upward.
Abelardo de la Espriella's price volatility amid campaign controversies
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 56%31%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price fluctuated significantly in early September, likely due to emerging controversies about his legal career and political positions, causing swings between 25% and 56%.
Candidates demand guarantees amid rising violence and electoral distrust
As violence surged and institutional credibility was questioned, candidates including Vicky DΓ‘vila publicly demanded stronger electoral guarantees, reflecting growing polarization and uncertainty that affected market confidence in several candidates.
Colombiaβs left-wing coalition announces 10 candidates for primary ahead of 2026 election
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro plunges to 11%39%
The ruling left-wing coalition, Pacto HistΓ³rico, announced 10 candidates competing in the primary to select their presidential candidate, including IvΓ‘n Cepeda. This event marked the start of the left's candidate selection process, influencing early market positioning.
Colombia's ruling left-wing coalition announces 10 primary candidates for 2026 election
The Historic Pact coalition, supporting President Gustavo Petro, announced 10 candidates competing in the primary ahead of the 2026 presidential election, including IvΓ‘n Cepeda. This set the stage for the left's candidate selection and influenced early market positioning.
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 44%6%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, despite a fallout with the Democratic Center party. This event influenced the market by introducing a new conservative candidate, affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's prospects.
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o announces presidential bid after son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Following the assassination of his son, presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o launched his own presidential campaign to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the market by introducing a new contender from the Democratic Colombia party and shifting support away from other candidates.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the killed presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy aiming to defend his son's political legacy, despite leaving the Democratic Center party. This event influenced market perceptions of Abelardo de la Espriella's and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's chances, as it introduced a new contender linked to a significant political event.
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 44%6%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the killed presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, running under Democratic Colombia after leaving the Democratic Center party. This event influenced market perceptions of Abelardo de la Espriella's and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's chances as new dynamics emerged.
Luis Gilberto Murillo's campaign falters amid low public support
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) plunges to 2%48%
Luis Gilberto Murillo's market price plummeted from 50% to near 2% in August 2025, reflecting poor campaign performance and lack of voter traction, leading to a collapse in his election chances.
Initial polling shows Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro as frontrunners
Early polling data positioned Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro as the leading candidates, each starting with a 50% market probability, reflecting strong initial support and setting the stage for a competitive race.
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy after his son was killed during a campaign rally, impacting the market's perception of the race.
Abelardo de la Espriella's support drops sharply early in campaign
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price fell from 50% to 27% by early September 2025, indicating early campaign volatility and challenges.
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o announces presidential bid after son's death
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of slain presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the race by introducing a new contender with ties to the Democratic Center party. This announcement likely influenced Abelardo de la Espriella's early price movements as the conservative field adjusted.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 46%4%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the Democratic Center and the broader election dynamics.
Gustavo BolΓvar reaches 12β―% in national poll
Gustavo BolΓvar (HC) jumps to 11%9%
A nationwide opinion poll placed BolΓvar at 12β―% support, the highest among the candidates at that moment, which briefly lifted his market price from 2β―% (Augβ―9) to 11β―% (Augβ―20). Subsequent polls showing a decline caused the price to fall back to 0β―% by early September.
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 45%5%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event increased attention on Uribe LondoΓ±o's campaign, impacting his market price.
David Luna resigns Senate seat to launch independent presidential bid
David Luna SΓ‘nchez (IND) dips to 0%2%
Luna announced his resignation from the Senate to run as an independent presidential candidate. The move was poorly received, causing his price to plunge from 2β―% to 0β―% within ten days.
Vicky DΓ‘vila launches Movimiento Valientes to support presidential bid
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) plunges to 28%22%
Vicky DΓ‘vila launched her political movement to gather signatures and build support for her independent presidential candidacy, emphasizing security and anti-corruption, which initially raised her market profile.
Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign team targeted in attack in Arauca
An attack on Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign coordinator's vehicle in Arauca heightened concerns about political violence, rallying support and sympathy for his campaign.
Luis Gilberto Murillo's support collapses to near zero in early campaign phase
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) plunges to 2%48%
Luis Gilberto Murillo's market price dropped sharply from 50% to 2% by mid-August 2025, reflecting a rapid loss of viability as a presidential candidate early in the campaign period.
Claudia LΓ³pez's candidacy loses momentum, support falls sharply
Claudia LΓ³pez (IND) plunges to 11%39%
Claudia LΓ³pez's market price dropped from 50% to 11% by mid-August 2025, signaling a significant decline in her presidential campaign viability.
Assassination of presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay
The assassination of Miguel Uribe Turbay, a prominent right-wing presidential candidate, heightened concerns about security and political violence, impacting the electoral environment and market perceptions of candidate viability.
Assassination of presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay shocks Colombia
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 38%12%
The killing of Miguel Uribe Turbay, a presidential candidate, created political turmoil and uncertainty in the election race, impacting the market by introducing his father Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o as a new contender, which affected Abelardo de la Espriella's and IvΓ‘n Cepeda's market prices.
Death of Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay after assassination attempt
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) plunges to 28%22%
Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay, a prominent political figure and son of a leading conservative, died following an assassination attempt, heightening concerns about violence in the election and impacting right-wing candidate dynamics, including Vicky DΓ‘vila's campaign.
Vicky DΓ‘vila Attends Funeral Chamber for Assassinated Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) plunges to 28%22%
Following the tragic death of presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay on August 11, 2025, after a June assassination attempt, the political landscape shifted dramatically. This event heightened security concerns and altered early voter dynamics, contributing to a sharp drop in Vicky DΓ‘vila's market price.
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o announces presidential bid after sonβs assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 38%12%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the killed candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, launched his presidential campaign representing Democratic Colombia after leaving the Democratic Center party due to internal disputes. This event introduced a new contender and shifted dynamics among right-wing candidates, impacting Abelardo de la Espriellaβs and othersβ market positions.
Poll shows right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella leading Colombia presidential race
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 56%6%
A poll indicated Abelardo de la Espriella leading the presidential race, reflecting early conservative and centrist consolidation against IvΓ‘n Cepeda. This boosted De la Espriella's market price while pressuring Cepeda's.
RegistradurΓa validates Luis Gilberto Murilloβs presidential candidacy
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) rises to 2%2%
The RegistradurΓa officially certified Murilloβs candidacy after he met the 3β―% signature threshold. The market temporarily rose from 0β―% (Augβ―1) to 2β―% (Augβ―9) before slumping back to 0β―% as the novelty faded.
Vicky DΓ‘vila's support collapses amid campaign struggles
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) plunges to 28%22%
Vicky DΓ‘vila's market price dropped sharply as her campaign failed to gain traction, reflected in polls and media coverage. This decline was part of a broader trend of diminishing chances for several minor candidates.
Vickyβ―DΓ‘vila unveils hardβline β4x4β security platform
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) plunges to 1%27%
Vickyβ―DΓ‘vila launched her β4x4β campaign platform, positioning herself as a hardβline security candidate. The move failed to generate traction and the market price fell from ~28β―% on Augβ―9 to singleβdigit levels within weeks, ending the window at 1β―% by Janβ―2026.
Abelardo de la Espriella names exβBucaramanga mayor as regional campaign manager
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 39%17%
Deβ―laβ―Espriella announced the recruitment of former Bucaramanga mayor Jaimeβ―BeltrΓ‘n as a regional manager, a move that sparked a brief rally in his market price (peaking at 56β―% on 1β―Sepβ―2025) before settling back to the midβ30β―% range.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces presidential candidacy with right-wing platform
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 56%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella officially launched his presidential campaign promoting conservative policies such as expanding gun rights and closing the Special Jurisdiction for Peace, which initially boosted his market support from 50% to near 56%.
Colombia's left-wing coalition announces 10 candidates for 2026 presidential primary
The Pacto HistΓ³rico coalition revealed its slate of 10 candidates competing in the primary, including IvΓ‘n Cepeda and others allied with President Gustavo Petro. This announcement set the stage for the primary contest and influenced early market positioning.
Vicky DΓ‘vila announces presidential run on conservative citizen platform
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) plunges to 28%22%
Journalist Vicky DΓ‘vila declared her candidacy for the presidency running as an independent on a conservative citizen platform, initially gaining some market attention but later losing support as polls showed limited chances.
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o announces presidential bid honoring slain son
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the murdered candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his presidential candidacy, aiming to continue his son's political legacy. This announcement introduced a new dynamic in the race, affecting perceptions of candidates linked to the Democratic Center and shifting market prices.
Vicky DΓ‘vila launches independent presidential campaign
Vicky DΓ‘vila (IND) plunges to 26%24%
Vicky DΓ‘vila, a prominent journalist and former director of Semana, announced her independent candidacy for the 2026 presidential election, initially gaining significant support reflected in early market prices.
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