Trader consensus favors Ciro Gomes at 68.5% implied probability for the Ceará gubernatorial election on October 4, 2026, driven by consistent leads in recent polls like Datafolha (47% vs. Elmano de Freitas' 32% in March) and Quaest (41% first-round edge over incumbent Elmano in late April), where he also prevails in most runoff scenarios against PT candidates. Elmano trails at 17% amid 53% approval but vulnerability as PT seeks to extend dominance since 2007, while Camilo Santana (11.8%) performs stronger head-to-head yet faces uncertainty over his candidacy. Ciro's pre-candidacy launch on May 16 signals intensifying opposition momentum, with Eduardo Girão, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio as lower-viability challengers in a likely polarized first-round contest potentially heading to October 25 runoff.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCeará Governor Election Winner
Ceará Governor Election Winner
Ciro Gomes 69%
Elmano de Freitas 20%
Eduardo Girão 7.5%
Roberto Cláudio 4.3%
$51,238 Vol.
$51,238 Vol.
4 out 2026
Ciro Gomes
69%
Elmano de Freitas
20%
Eduardo Girão
8%
Roberto Cláudio
4%
Capitão Wagner
4%
Camilo Santana
4%
Ciro Gomes 69%
Elmano de Freitas 20%
Eduardo Girão 7.5%
Roberto Cláudio 4.3%
$51,238 Vol.
$51,238 Vol.
4 out 2026
Ciro Gomes
$35,855 Vol.
69%
Elmano de Freitas
$4,844 Vol.
20%
Eduardo Girão
$2,928 Vol.
8%
Roberto Cláudio
$1,784 Vol.
4%
Capitão Wagner
$3,100 Vol.
4%
Camilo Santana
$2,727 Vol.
4%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus favors Ciro Gomes at 68.5% implied probability for the Ceará gubernatorial election on October 4, 2026, driven by consistent leads in recent polls like Datafolha (47% vs. Elmano de Freitas' 32% in March) and Quaest (41% first-round edge over incumbent Elmano in late April), where he also prevails in most runoff scenarios against PT candidates. Elmano trails at 17% amid 53% approval but vulnerability as PT seeks to extend dominance since 2007, while Camilo Santana (11.8%) performs stronger head-to-head yet faces uncertainty over his candidacy. Ciro's pre-candidacy launch on May 16 signals intensifying opposition momentum, with Eduardo Girão, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio as lower-viability challengers in a likely polarized first-round contest potentially heading to October 25 runoff.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volume
$51,238Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus favors Ciro Gomes at 68.5% implied probability for the Ceará gubernatorial election on October 4, 2026, driven by consistent leads in recent polls like Datafolha (47% vs. Elmano de Freitas' 32% in March) and Quaest (41% first-round edge over incumbent Elmano in late April), where he also prevails in most runoff scenarios against PT candidates. Elmano trails at 17% amid 53% approval but vulnerability as PT seeks to extend dominance since 2007, while Camilo Santana (11.8%) performs stronger head-to-head yet faces uncertainty over his candidacy. Ciro's pre-candidacy launch on May 16 signals intensifying opposition momentum, with Eduardo Girão, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio as lower-viability challengers in a likely polarized first-round contest potentially heading to October 25 runoff.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$51,238Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Ciro Gomes at 68.5% implied probability for the Ceará gubernatorial election on October 4, 2026, driven by consistent leads in recent polls like Datafolha (47% vs. Elmano de Freitas' 32% in March) and Quaest (41% first-round edge over incumbent Elmano in late April), where he also prevails in most runoff scenarios against PT candidates. Elmano trails at 17% amid 53% approval but vulnerability as PT seeks to extend dominance since 2007, while Camilo Santana (11.8%) performs stronger head-to-head yet faces uncertainty over his candidacy. Ciro's pre-candidacy launch on May 16 signals intensifying opposition momentum, with Eduardo Girão, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio as lower-viability challengers in a likely polarized first-round contest potentially heading to October 25 runoff.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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