Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor from the Republicanos party, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 race due to consistent polling advantages of 15 points or more over main challenger Fernando Haddad of the PT, with recent surveys from Ideia, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas placing him between 41% and 52% in first-round voting intentions. Withdrawals by other contenders including Kim Kataguiri have consolidated right-leaning support, while Tarcísio’s emphasis on public safety and state-level alliances have bolstered his position ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Tarcísio reflects this sustained edge and the narrow path for alternatives like Haddad or Erika Hilton. A late scandal, sharp economic downturn, or unexpected national political shift could still alter first-round dynamics, though current evidence shows limited scope for such reversals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTarcísio de Freitas 96.5%
Fernando Haddad 3.1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$283,989 Vol.
$283,989 Vol.
4 out 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
97%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 96.5%
Fernando Haddad 3.1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$283,989 Vol.
$283,989 Vol.
4 out 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$127,023 Vol.
97%
Fernando Haddad
$47,765 Vol.
3%
Erika Hilton
$22,704 Vol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$75,829 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor from the Republicanos party, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 race due to consistent polling advantages of 15 points or more over main challenger Fernando Haddad of the PT, with recent surveys from Ideia, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas placing him between 41% and 52% in first-round voting intentions. Withdrawals by other contenders including Kim Kataguiri have consolidated right-leaning support, while Tarcísio’s emphasis on public safety and state-level alliances have bolstered his position ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Tarcísio reflects this sustained edge and the narrow path for alternatives like Haddad or Erika Hilton. A late scandal, sharp economic downturn, or unexpected national political shift could still alter first-round dynamics, though current evidence shows limited scope for such reversals.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$283,989Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor from the Republicanos party, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 race due to consistent polling advantages of 15 points or more over main challenger Fernando Haddad of the PT, with recent surveys from Ideia, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas placing him between 41% and 52% in first-round voting intentions. Withdrawals by other contenders including Kim Kataguiri have consolidated right-leaning support, while Tarcísio’s emphasis on public safety and state-level alliances have bolstered his position ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Tarcísio reflects this sustained edge and the narrow path for alternatives like Haddad or Erika Hilton. A late scandal, sharp economic downturn, or unexpected national political shift could still alter first-round dynamics, though current evidence shows limited scope for such reversals.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$283,989Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent São Paulo governor from the Republicanos party, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 race due to consistent polling advantages of 15 points or more over main challenger Fernando Haddad of the PT, with recent surveys from Ideia, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas placing him between 41% and 52% in first-round voting intentions. Withdrawals by other contenders including Kim Kataguiri have consolidated right-leaning support, while Tarcísio’s emphasis on public safety and state-level alliances have bolstered his position ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Tarcísio reflects this sustained edge and the narrow path for alternatives like Haddad or Erika Hilton. A late scandal, sharp economic downturn, or unexpected national political shift could still alter first-round dynamics, though current evidence shows limited scope for such reversals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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