Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in first-round polling for Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, consistently placing second behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range across recent surveys. His status as the Liberal Party nominee, backed by the imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and voter base, consolidates right-wing support while centrist parties have largely remained neutral or fragmented. Other listed candidates such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema register in the low single digits, limiting their prospects for advancing. Campaign launches by both Lula and Flávio in mid-August have not altered this ordering, with ongoing economic measures and security messaging reinforcing the two-candidate dynamic ahead of the vote.