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icon for Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 1º Lugar
Política·Eleição Principal

Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 1º Lugar

icon for Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 1º Lugar
Política·Eleição Principal

Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 1º Lugar

Manuela D'Ávila 34%

Marcel Van Hattem 32%

Renato Jaguarão 31%

Daniela Mulheres Socialistas 30%

Polymarket
NOVO

Manuela D'Ávila 34%

Marcel Van Hattem 32%

Renato Jaguarão 31%

Daniela Mulheres Socialistas 30%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Manuela D'Ávila

Manuela D'Ávila

$110 Vol.

26%

icon for Marcel Van Hattem

Marcel Van Hattem

$147 Vol.

21%

icon for Renato Jaguarão

Renato Jaguarão

$69 Vol.

31%

icon for Daniela Mulheres Socialistas

Daniela Mulheres Socialistas

$69 Vol.

30%

icon for Milton Cardoso

Milton Cardoso

$69 Vol.

29%

icon for Regis Ethur

Regis Ethur

$69 Vol.

27%

icon for Luciano do MLB

Luciano do MLB

$66 Vol.

23%

icon for Ric Jones

Ric Jones

$69 Vol.

22%

icon for Rigotto

Rigotto

$69 Vol.

20%

icon for Pimenta

Pimenta

$69 Vol.

18%

icon for Sanderson

Sanderson

$102 Vol.

10%

icon for Frederico Antunes

Frederico Antunes

$121 Vol.

9%

icon for Tania Peres

Tania Peres

$142 Vol.

3%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race for the October 4, 2026, first round remains highly fragmented, with trader prices reflecting a crowded field of declared candidates including Germano Rigotto (MDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Marcel van Hattem (Novo), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL). Recent July polls from Paraná Pesquisas and others show the top five clustered between roughly 20% and 31%, producing technical ties and underscoring the absence of an incumbent or dominant frontrunner. Confirmation of candidacies such as Rigotto's and ongoing coalition-building have kept momentum distributed, while high undecided shares and the state's two-seat Senate structure further dilute any single contender's edge. Separation could emerge from late-summer debates, party federations, or regional economic recovery messaging that consolidates center-right or left-leaning voters before the vote.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$1,167
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race for the October 4, 2026, first round remains highly fragmented, with trader prices reflecting a crowded field of declared candidates including Germano Rigotto (MDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Marcel van Hattem (Novo), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL). Recent July polls from Paraná Pesquisas and others show the top five clustered between roughly 20% and 31%, producing technical ties and underscoring the absence of an incumbent or dominant frontrunner. Confirmation of candidacies such as Rigotto's and ongoing coalition-building have kept momentum distributed, while high undecided shares and the state's two-seat Senate structure further dilute any single contender's edge. Separation could emerge from late-summer debates, party federations, or regional economic recovery messaging that consolidates center-right or left-leaning voters before the vote.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$1,167
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 1º Lugar" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Renato Jaguarão" at 31%, followed by "Daniela Mulheres Socialistas" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 1º Lugar" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 1º Lugar," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 1º Lugar" is "Renato Jaguarão" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Daniela Mulheres Socialistas" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição para o Senado do Rio Grande do Sul: 1º Lugar" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.