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icon for Eleição para o Senado do Rio de Janeiro: 1º Lugar
Política·Brasil

Eleição para o Senado do Rio de Janeiro: 1º Lugar

icon for Eleição para o Senado do Rio de Janeiro: 1º Lugar
Política·Brasil

Eleição para o Senado do Rio de Janeiro: 1º Lugar

Monica Benicio 44%

Helio Secco 42%

Paula Falcão 42%

Benedita da Silva 42%

Polymarket
NOVO

Monica Benicio 44%

Helio Secco 42%

Paula Falcão 42%

Benedita da Silva 42%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Monica Benicio

Monica Benicio

$49 Vol.

44%

icon for Helio Secco

Helio Secco

$49 Vol.

42%

icon for Paula Falcão

Paula Falcão

$49 Vol.

42%

icon for Benedita da Silva

Benedita da Silva

$49 Vol.

42%

icon for Marcelo Crivella

Marcelo Crivella

$49 Vol.

42%

icon for Carlos Portinho

Carlos Portinho

$49 Vol.

41%

icon for Vinicius Benevides

Vinicius Benevides

$49 Vol.

41%

icon for André Monteiro

André Monteiro

$49 Vol.

40%

icon for Marcos Dias

Marcos Dias

$49 Vol.

40%

icon for Pedro Paulo

Pedro Paulo

$49 Vol.

39%

icon for Carlos Jordy

Carlos Jordy

$49 Vol.

28%

icon for Luiz Eugenio

Luiz Eugenio

$49 Vol.

27%

icon for Ó Clemente

Ó Clemente

$49 Vol.

25%

icon for Luciano Mattos

Luciano Mattos

$49 Vol.

22%

icon for Michelly Xavier

Michelly Xavier

$49 Vol.

22%

icon for Waguinho

Waguinho

$49 Vol.

16%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**The Rio de Janeiro Senate race for the two seats up in the October 4, 2026 election remains tightly contested among a fragmented field of roughly 16 registered candidates.** Polls released in July and early August place Benedita da Silva (PT) in the lead for the top spot, with Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos) competitive for second and Pedro Paulo (PSD), Carlos Jordy (PL), and Carlos Portinho (PL) clustered closely behind. Recent finalization of candidacies on August 15 has clarified the ballot but introduced little separation, as no major withdrawals or consolidations have occurred and voter intentions show high indecision or split preferences across parties. **The market’s narrow spreads reflect this multi-candidate dynamic in an open-seat contest formerly held by Flávio Bolsonaro (now running for president).** Key variables that could widen gaps include upcoming Datafolha or AtlasIntel releases measuring first- and second-place intentions, any late alliances or endorsements from state-level figures, and turnout patterns in the capital versus interior municipalities. With the vote less than two months away, modest shifts in name recognition or campaign visibility among the mid-tier contenders could still reorder the top tier before election night.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$779
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**The Rio de Janeiro Senate race for the two seats up in the October 4, 2026 election remains tightly contested among a fragmented field of roughly 16 registered candidates.** Polls released in July and early August place Benedita da Silva (PT) in the lead for the top spot, with Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos) competitive for second and Pedro Paulo (PSD), Carlos Jordy (PL), and Carlos Portinho (PL) clustered closely behind. Recent finalization of candidacies on August 15 has clarified the ballot but introduced little separation, as no major withdrawals or consolidations have occurred and voter intentions show high indecision or split preferences across parties. **The market’s narrow spreads reflect this multi-candidate dynamic in an open-seat contest formerly held by Flávio Bolsonaro (now running for president).** Key variables that could widen gaps include upcoming Datafolha or AtlasIntel releases measuring first- and second-place intentions, any late alliances or endorsements from state-level figures, and turnout patterns in the capital versus interior municipalities. With the vote less than two months away, modest shifts in name recognition or campaign visibility among the mid-tier contenders could still reorder the top tier before election night.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$779
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Will Manuela D'Ávila win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição para o Senado do Rio de Janeiro: 1º Lugar" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Monica Benicio" at 44%, followed by "Helio Secco" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eleição para o Senado do Rio de Janeiro: 1º Lugar" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eleição para o Senado do Rio de Janeiro: 1º Lugar," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição para o Senado do Rio de Janeiro: 1º Lugar" is "Monica Benicio" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Helio Secco" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição para o Senado do Rio de Janeiro: 1º Lugar" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.