Recent polling from July shows Benedita da Silva (PT) maintaining a clear lead for one of Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats, while the contest for second place remains fragmented among Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Portinho (PL), Márcio Canella (União), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and several others, each polling in the low single digits amid 59-61% undecided or blank responses. With roughly seven weeks until the October vote and limited new surveys since late July, traders see no candidate pulling ahead decisively. High voter indecision, the absence of a unifying right-leaning alternative, and potential late shifts from endorsements or campaign events continue to keep implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMichelly Xavier 34%
Luiz Eugenio 33%
Paula Falcão 21%
Carlos Portinho 21%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
Michelly Xavier
34%
Luiz Eugenio
33%
Paula Falcão
21%
Carlos Portinho
21%
André Monteiro
20%
Marcos Dias
20%
Marcelo Crivella
19%
Luciano Mattos
19%
Waguinho
19%
Helio Secco
18%
Ó Clemente
18%
Carlos Jordy
18%
Monica Benicio
18%
Pedro Paulo
21%
Benedita da Silva
23%
Vinicius Benevides
10%
Michelly Xavier 34%
Luiz Eugenio 33%
Paula Falcão 21%
Carlos Portinho 21%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
Michelly Xavier
$78 Vol.
34%
Luiz Eugenio
$80 Vol.
33%
Paula Falcão
$41 Vol.
21%
Carlos Portinho
$41 Vol.
21%
André Monteiro
$41 Vol.
20%
Marcos Dias
$41 Vol.
20%
Marcelo Crivella
$41 Vol.
19%
Luciano Mattos
$41 Vol.
19%
Waguinho
$41 Vol.
19%
Helio Secco
$41 Vol.
18%
Ó Clemente
$41 Vol.
18%
Carlos Jordy
$41 Vol.
18%
Monica Benicio
$41 Vol.
18%
Pedro Paulo
$41 Vol.
21%
Benedita da Silva
$61 Vol.
23%
Vinicius Benevides
$41 Vol.
10%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July shows Benedita da Silva (PT) maintaining a clear lead for one of Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats, while the contest for second place remains fragmented among Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Portinho (PL), Márcio Canella (União), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and several others, each polling in the low single digits amid 59-61% undecided or blank responses. With roughly seven weeks until the October vote and limited new surveys since late July, traders see no candidate pulling ahead decisively. High voter indecision, the absence of a unifying right-leaning alternative, and potential late shifts from endorsements or campaign events continue to keep implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$752Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July shows Benedita da Silva (PT) maintaining a clear lead for one of Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats, while the contest for second place remains fragmented among Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Portinho (PL), Márcio Canella (União), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and several others, each polling in the low single digits amid 59-61% undecided or blank responses. With roughly seven weeks until the October vote and limited new surveys since late July, traders see no candidate pulling ahead decisively. High voter indecision, the absence of a unifying right-leaning alternative, and potential late shifts from endorsements or campaign events continue to keep implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$752Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from July shows Benedita da Silva (PT) maintaining a clear lead for one of Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats, while the contest for second place remains fragmented among Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Portinho (PL), Márcio Canella (União), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and several others, each polling in the low single digits amid 59-61% undecided or blank responses. With roughly seven weeks until the October vote and limited new surveys since late July, traders see no candidate pulling ahead decisively. High voter indecision, the absence of a unifying right-leaning alternative, and potential late shifts from endorsements or campaign events continue to keep implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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