JD Vance names Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as expected 2028 Democratic frontrunner

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 11%2%

Vice President JD Vance singled out Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the likely 2028 Democratic nominee, sparking a viral exchange and boosting her market odds.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez responds to being named leading 2028 Democratic candidate by JD Vance

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 15%4%

After Vice President JD Vance publicly predicted Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would be the leading Democratic candidate in 2028, Ocasio-Cortez acknowledged the comment with a positive response. This endorsement and increased media attention contributed to a rise in her market odds from 11% to 15% during early July.

Fox News Poll Shows Jon Ossoff Holding Double-Digit Lead in Georgia Senate Race

Jon Ossoff rises to 13%3%

A new Fox News poll showed incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff leading Republican challenger Mike Collins by 13 points, reinforcing his image as a highly electable and rising star in the Democratic Party.

Kamala Harris Reaches Out to Progressives and Pro-Palestinian Activists

Kamala Harris dips to 6%1%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris held private meetings with progressive leaders, including New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, to build bridges ahead of 2028, though the outreach drew mixed reactions and skepticism from some party factions.

Senator Jon Ossoff flatly denies 2028 presidential ambitions to CNN

Senator Jon Ossoff reiterated that he is not running for president in 2028 and is entirely focused on his Georgia Senate reelection campaign, temporarily cooling some market speculation.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez responds to JD Vance's prediction of her 2028 nomination

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 14%5%

JD Vance publicly predicted Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would be the leading Democratic candidate for president in 2028. Ocasio-Cortez's wry and noncommittal response was widely reported, fueling speculation and boosting her market odds from 9% to 14%.

Jon Ossoff denies 2028 presidential run amid rising speculation

Jon Ossoff jumps to 12%6%

Despite rising market odds and media speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, Jon Ossoff publicly denied any interest in running, emphasizing his focus on the 2026 Senate race. His market price rose from 6% to 12% during this period, reflecting increased attention despite his denials.

Jon Ossoff Reiterates He Has No Interest in Running for President in 2028

Jon Ossoff rises to 11%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff flatly denied any presidential ambitions to CNN, stating he is laser-focused on his Georgia Senate reelection campaign.

Jon Ossoff Reiterates He Is Not Running for President in 2028

Jon Ossoff dips to 9%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff doubled down on his denial of 2028 presidential ambitions, emphasizing his absolute focus on his Georgia Senate reelection campaign.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's cross-country tour fuels fresh 2028 presidential buzz

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 12%3%

Ocasio-Cortez's national appearances and speeches, including at civil rights events, renewed speculation about her 2028 presidential ambitions, supporting a market price rise from 9% to 12%.

JD Vance predicts Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be the 2028 Democratic nominee

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 13%4%

Vice President JD Vance singled out Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the expected 2028 Democratic frontrunner, prompting a viral response from the congresswoman and boosting her market price.

Senator Jon Ossoff doubles down on denial of 2028 presidential run

Jon Ossoff rises to 11%1%

Despite growing online support and speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, Jon Ossoff publicly denied any interest in running, emphasizing his focus on the 2026 Senate race, which paradoxically kept him in the spotlight.

Jon Ossoff Adamantly Rules Out 2028 Presidential Run

Senator Jon Ossoff doubled down on his refusal to run for president in 2028, stating he is laser-focused on his Georgia Senate reelection campaign, which cooled his rising market odds.

Vice President JD Vance predicts Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be 2028 Democratic nominee

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 14%5%

JD Vance publicly named Ocasio-Cortez as the likely Democratic nominee in 2028, which sparked media attention and a subtle but positive response from Ocasio-Cortez, boosting her market price significantly.

Jon Ossoff publicly denies 2028 presidential run amid rising speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%1%

Despite growing market odds and media speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, Jon Ossoff firmly denied any interest in running, emphasizing his focus on the 2026 Senate race. This denial caused some market volatility but did not halt his overall upward trend.

AOC Responds to JD Vance's Prediction That She Will Be the 2028 Democratic Nominee

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 11%1%

Vice President JD Vance predicted that Ocasio-Cortez would be the Democratic nominee in 2028, prompting a quick-witted response from her that fueled further media buzz and raised her market odds.

Senator Jon Ossoff Reiterates He Has Zero Interest in Running for President in 2028

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%1%

Despite growing online support and media speculation, Senator Jon Ossoff issued a firm statement denying any interest in a 2028 presidential run, calling the chatter a distraction.

Jon Ossoff Adamantly Denies 2028 Presidential Ambitions

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%1%

Despite a surge in prediction market odds and national buzz, Senator Jon Ossoff explicitly ruled out a 2028 presidential run, stating he is entirely focused on his competitive 2026 Georgia Senate reelection race.

Kamala Harris courts progressive leaders amid 2028 presidential speculation

Kamala Harris reached out to progressive figures like NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, signaling possible 2028 ambitions, but this did not significantly boost her market price, which remained low.

AtlasIntel Poll Places Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the Top of Potential 2028 Democratic Field

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 13%4%

A new AtlasIntel poll showed Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading potential Democratic contenders with 26 percent support, boosting her market odds significantly.

Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rallies boost 2028 presidential speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%4%

Senator Jon Ossoff's campaign rallies in Georgia went viral, showcasing his sharp criticism of Donald Trump and resonating with Democratic voters. Despite his repeated denials of interest in running for president, his rising profile and fundraising success increased his market odds from 6% to 10%.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez cruises to primary victory, fueling 2028 speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 12%3%

Ocasio-Cortez's decisive primary win in New York solidified her position as a leading progressive voice and increased speculation about a 2028 presidential run, reflected in her market price rising from 9% to 12%.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins Democratic primary, boosting 2028 speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 12%3%

AOC's decisive primary victory in New York solidified her position as a leading progressive voice and increased speculation about a 2028 presidential run, reflected in her market price rising from 9% to 12%.

Tucker Carlson reveals Trump views Gavin Newsom as a 2028 threat

Gavin Newsom dips to 20%1%

Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson disclosed that former President Donald Trump considers Gavin Newsom a viable contender for the 2028 Democratic nomination, which reinforced Newsom's frontrunner status despite ongoing challenges.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear gains traction as potential 2028 presidential candidate

Andy Beshear dips to 2%1%

By mid-2026, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear was gaining popularity and polling as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, rising to around 2-3% in markets and polls, reflecting growing national attention.

Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rallies boost 2028 presidential speculation

Jon Ossoff jumps to 13%5%

Senator Jon Ossoff's campaign rallies gained viral attention, increasing his national profile and market odds despite his repeated denials of presidential ambitions. This energized Democratic voters and raised his viability as a 2028 contender.

New poll shows Kamala Harris's support waning amid calls for fresh Democratic candidates

Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%

A poll and donor sentiment in late June indicated declining enthusiasm for Kamala Harris's 2028 bid, with party leaders favoring fresh faces, contributing to her market price decline from 9% to 7%.

Poll shows Kamala Harris's early lead tightening as Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez gain support

Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%

A McLaughlin poll indicated a tightening race among top Democratic contenders, with Kamala Harris's support declining while Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gained ground, reflecting shifting voter preferences.

Kamala Harris market price declines amid skepticism about 2028 run

Kamala Harris dips to 6%3%

Despite earlier hints at running, skepticism grew about Harris's chances for the 2028 nomination, reflected in a market price decline from 9% to 6%, as some commentators questioned her viability and recent political impact.

Gavin Newsom and Wife Under Federal Investigation, Governor Claims Political Motivation

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that he and his wife are under federal investigation, framing the probe as a politically motivated attack by Donald Trump due to his 2028 presidential ambitions.

McLaughlin & Associates Poll Shows Kamala Harris Leading 2028 Field but with Tightening Support

A new national survey showed Kamala Harris leading Democratic voters with 26% support, but her early dominant lead continued to tighten as other potential candidates gained traction.

Tucker Carlson reveals Trump views Gavin Newsom as viable 2028 Democratic nominee

Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson disclosed that former President Donald Trump considers Gavin Newsom a strong contender for the 2028 Democratic nomination, reinforcing Newsom's frontrunner status despite challenges.

Andy Beshear’s support rises in polls for 2028 presidential speculation

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear showed a notable increase in polling support for a potential 2028 presidential run, reflecting growing recognition of his moderate appeal and electoral success in a red state.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins primary, fueling 2028 presidential bid speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 13%4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's easy primary victory in New York boosted her political clout and reignited speculation about a 2028 presidential run, leading to increased market prices for her nomination chances.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins New York Democratic primary

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%1%

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez easily defeated a primary challenger in New York's 14th District, solidifying her political standing and fueling speculation about a 2028 run.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Cruises to Primary Victory as Socialists Sweep New York

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 13%3%

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez easily defeated her primary challenger Marty Dolan, while three Democratic Socialists of America candidates swept their own primaries in New York City, boosting her 2028 presidential speculation.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear signals 2028 presidential interest

Andy Beshear has made media appearances and comments indicating he is considering a 2028 presidential run, supported by high approval ratings and bipartisan appeal, though he has not formally announced.

Gavin Newsom aligns closely with Joe Biden ahead of 2028 primary

Newsom publicly embraced Joe Biden's legacy and cultivated ties with the Biden family, aiming to secure support from key Democratic constituencies. This strategic positioning helped maintain his frontrunner status in prediction markets despite some polling challenges.

Gavin Newsom aligns with Joe Biden and maintains frontrunner status in 2028 Democratic nomination market

Gavin Newsom dips to 23%1%

California Governor Gavin Newsom cultivated closer ties with Joe Biden and his political circle, praising Biden's record, which helped solidify his position as the leading contender in the 2028 Democratic nomination market despite a competitive field and slight price fluctuations.

Gavin Newsom embraces Joe Biden ahead of 2028 primary

Gavin Newsom publicly aligned himself with Joe Biden, betting that embracing the former president would be more popular among Democrats than distancing himself. This strategic positioning aimed to consolidate support within the party for his 2028 bid.

Jon Ossoff's Campaign Raises Over $1 Million in 24 Hours Following GOP Runoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%2%

Following the confirmation of his Republican opponent, Ossoff's general election campaign raised over $1 million in a single day, demonstrating his formidable fundraising power and national appeal.

Analysis Highlights Jon Ossoff as a Rising 2028 Democratic Presidential Contender

Jon Ossoff dips to 9%1%

On June 18, 2026, media analysis emphasized Jon Ossoff's potential as a 2028 presidential candidate contingent on his 2026 Senate race success. This coverage reinforced market confidence, sustaining his elevated price near 10%.

Jon Ossoff Floated as 2028 Contender Ahead of Crucial 2026 Reelection Test

Jon Ossoff dips to 10%2%

Media analysis highlighted Ossoff's potential as a 2028 presidential candidate, noting that a victory in his highly competitive 2026 Georgia Senate race would prove his broad appeal.

Jon Ossoff gains attention with viral anti-Trump speech and rising speculation about 2028 run

Jon Ossoff jumps to 12%6%

Jon Ossoff delivered a viral campaign speech criticizing Donald Trump, increasing his profile and market odds from 6% to 12% over the analysis window, despite his public denials of interest in running for president in 2028.

Media highlights Jon Ossoff as rising Democratic star and 2028 contender

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%1%

On June 18, media coverage emphasized Ossoff's growing momentum and appeal as a young, authentic Democratic leader with strong fundraising and viral campaign videos, reinforcing his status as a leading 2028 presidential prospect and supporting the market price increase to 10%.

Jon Ossoff's 2026 Senate campaign boosts 2028 presidential speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%

Media coverage highlighted Jon Ossoff's potential as a 2028 presidential candidate contingent on his 2026 Senate race success. His viral campaign speeches and fundraising momentum increased market confidence, raising his nomination odds from 6% to 9%.

Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rallies fuel 2028 presidential speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%4%

Senator Jon Ossoff's energetic and viral campaign speeches increased his visibility and market odds from 6% to 10%, despite his repeated denials of presidential ambitions. His appeal as a Southern Democrat in a swing state attracted attention as a potential future nominee.

New York Times Opinion Piece Boosts Jon Ossoff as Ideal 2028 Presidential Candidate

Jon Ossoff rises to 13%4%

A prominent opinion piece by Michelle Goldberg in The New York Times detailed why Jon Ossoff is seen as an ideal candidate to bridge party divides, sparking national buzz and driving his prediction market price to its peak.

Media analysis highlights Jon Ossoff's rising 2028 presidential prospects after Senate race

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%1%

Media coverage emphasized Jon Ossoff's potential as a 2028 presidential candidate contingent on his 2026 Senate race success, reinforcing market confidence and sustaining his elevated price near 10%.

Prediction Markets Price Jon Ossoff as 2028 Contender While Gavin Newsom Cools Off

Gavin Newsom dips to 21%3%

Traders heavily backed Jon Ossoff in 2028 nomination contracts, closing his gap with other top contenders, while former frontrunner Gavin Newsom experienced a slight decline in his market share.

Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rally sparks 2028 presidential speculation

Jon Ossoff jumps to 12%5%

Ossoff's viral speech and growing online support increased his market odds from 7% to 12%, despite his public denials of presidential ambitions, reflecting rising enthusiasm among Democrats.

Federal investigation announced into Gavin Newsom and his wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 23%2%

California Governor Gavin Newsom disclosed a federal investigation into himself and his wife, raising questions about the impact on his 2028 presidential ambitions and causing a decline in his market price.

New York Times Opinion Piece Asks 'Why Everyone Wants Jon Ossoff to Run for President'

Jon Ossoff jumps to 13%5%

A prominent New York Times opinion piece by Michelle Goldberg detailed why Jon Ossoff is seen as an ideal 2028 presidential candidate, sparking national buzz and driving his prediction market price to a peak.

Federal probe into California Gov. Gavin Newsom raises doubts about 2028 run

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%7%

The Washington Post reported that Newsom’s office confirmed a federal investigation into his administration on June 17. The announcement sparked speculation that legal trouble could derail a 2028 presidential bid, prompting the market’s price for Newsom to fall from a high of 27 % on June 15 to 20 % by July 1.

Gavin Newsom announces federal investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%

Newsom publicly revealed that he and his wife were under federal investigation, which introduced uncertainty about his presidential prospects. While some Democrats rallied around him viewing the probe as politically motivated, the market price for his nomination odds declined from 25% to around 20%.

Jon Ossoff gains momentum as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender amid Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff jumps to 13%6%

Jon Ossoff's rising profile as a young, charismatic leader and his active campaign for Senate reelection increased his visibility as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, with market price peaking at 13% on June 17 before settling at 9%.

Jon Ossoff Becomes Internet Sensation and Potential 2028 Contender

Jon Ossoff jumps to 13%5%

National media highlighted Senator Jon Ossoff's growing momentum and viral campaign videos, framing him as a leading next-generation prospect for the 2028 nomination.

Gavin Newsom reveals federal investigation, boosting 2028 nomination odds

Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced a Department of Justice investigation, which increased media attention and paradoxically boosted his 2028 presidential nomination odds despite potential risks.

Federal investigation into Gavin Newsom raises questions but may bolster his 2028 chances

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%1%

Newsom announced he and his wife are under federal investigation, which initially caused some market uncertainty but ultimately may have rallied Democratic voters around him, keeping his price near 24-25% before a slight decline.

Jon Ossoff Profiled as Rising Internet Sensation and Potential 2028 Contender

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%2%

A major profile by The New York Times highlighted Jon Ossoff's growing status as a Democratic internet sensation and potential 2028 presidential candidate, boosting his market odds.

DOJ probe into Gavin Newsom could affect 2028 presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%

A Washington Post report revealed that the DOJ had opened a federal investigation into Governor Gavin Newsom and his wife. The news sparked speculation that the probe could either damage his presidential prospects or rally Democratic voters, prompting a modest but noticeable decline in Newsom’s market price from the mid‑20s to the low‑20 % range by the end of June.

Jon Ossoff's Senate runoff against Mike Collins intensifies 2028 speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%3%

The June 16 runoff election in Georgia between Jon Ossoff and Republican Mike Collins heightened Ossoff's profile as a 2028 presidential contender, leading to a significant increase in his market odds.

Trump-Endorsed Mike Collins Wins Georgia GOP Senate Runoff to Face Jon Ossoff

Representative Mike Collins won the Republican runoff, setting up a high-stakes Senate battle against Jon Ossoff, who is widely viewed as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential contender.

Republican Mike Collins wins Georgia Senate runoff, setting up tough race against Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%

Mike Collins won the Republican runoff, becoming Jon Ossoff's opponent in the 2026 Senate election. This improved Ossoff's reelection outlook and boosted his 2028 presidential nomination odds, as a strong Senate position is seen as a stepping stone for presidential ambitions.

Georgia GOP Senate primary runoff concludes with Mike Collins as nominee to face Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%

The Republican primary runoff ended with Mike Collins winning, setting up a high-stakes general election against Jon Ossoff. The divided GOP primary and Collins' nomination improved Ossoff's reelection outlook and boosted his 2028 presidential nomination odds from 6% to 9%.

Jon Ossoff Publicly Rejects 2028 Presidential Speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%2%

Despite growing chatter and rising prediction market odds, Senator Jon Ossoff explicitly stated he has zero interest in running for president in 2028, calling the speculation a distraction.

Mike Collins Wins Georgia GOP Senate Runoff, Setting Up High-Stakes Race Against Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%3%

The conclusion of the Georgia Republican primary runoff set up a high-stakes general election matchup, boosting Ossoff's national profile and 2028 presidential speculation.

Jon Ossoff delivers viral 30-minute campaign speech boosting 2028 contender buzz

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%1%

Jon Ossoff's viral campaign speech in Atlanta increased his national profile and market confidence as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential nominee, contributing to a price rise from 9% to 10%.

Gavin Newsom Claims DOJ Opened Investigation Into Him and His Wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%

California Governor Gavin Newsom reported that the Department of Justice opened an investigation into him and his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, which he claimed was politically motivated.

Gavin Newsom opposes California billionaire tax amid political pressure

Gavin Newsom drops to 21%5%

Newsom mounted a campaign to stop a proposed California billionaire tax, which was seen as a political battle affecting his image and market odds. This opposition coincided with a decline in his market price as concerns about affordability and political challenges grew.

Gavin Newsom Preemptively Discloses Federal Investigation Into Himself and His Wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%

California Governor Gavin Newsom released a video announcing that he and his wife are under federal investigation, claiming the probe is politically motivated due to his 2028 presidential ambitions.

Politico Highlights Jon Ossoff as a Strong Potential 2028 Democratic Ticket Contender

An analysis by Politico argued that Georgia Senators Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock are highly likely to be on the 2028 Democratic ticket, highlighting Ossoff's appeal as an articulate, next-generation candidate.

Poll shows Pete Buttigieg surging past Kamala Harris in 2028 Democratic primary support

Kamala Harris dips to 7%1%

A new poll indicated Pete Buttigieg overtaking Kamala Harris in Democratic primary support, signaling challenges for Harris's candidacy and contributing to a decline in her market price during this period.

California Governor Gavin Newsom announces DOJ investigation into him

Gavin Newsom drops to 21%5%

Newsom revealed that the US Department of Justice is investigating him, which raised concerns and led to a decline in his market price from 26% to 21%. This legal scrutiny affected perceptions of his viability as the 2028 Democratic nominee.

Gavin Newsom announces federal DOJ investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 21%4%

California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly revealed that he and his wife are under investigation by the Department of Justice, which he claims is politically motivated by President Donald Trump due to his potential 2028 presidential run. This announcement led to a decline in Newsom's market price from the mid-20s to the low 20% range, reflecting uncertainty about his candidacy.

Jon Stewart addresses 2028 presidential run speculation

Jon Stewart acknowledged public calls for him to run for president in 2028, attributing the interest to public dissatisfaction, but has not committed to a campaign, keeping his market odds low.

DOJ investigation into Gavin Newsom and wife surfaces amid 2028 speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 21%4%

Newsom revealed that the Department of Justice is investigating him and his wife, which he claims is politically motivated due to his potential 2028 presidential run. This news added controversy and pressure, contributing to a decline in his market price.

Media profiles tout Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff as potential 2028 unity candidate

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Major features in the New York Times and Politico highlighted Senator Jon Ossoff's strong reelection polling and potential as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender, causing his prediction market odds to surge.

Gavin Newsom rises in 2028 Democratic nomination odds amid DOJ investigation speculation

Gavin Newsom rises to 21%3%

Newsom's odds increased as he became the top contender in prediction markets, driven by reports of a DOJ investigation he framed as politically motivated, raising his profile and market confidence.

Gavin Newsom maintains lead amid ongoing 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom rises to 25%2%

Despite some price fluctuations, Gavin Newsom's market price stabilized around 25% as he continued to be viewed as the early front-runner for the 2028 Democratic nomination, supported by his public statements and political positioning.

Gavin Newsom reveals DOJ investigation into him and his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom

Gavin Newsom dips to 21%4%

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the Department of Justice opened an investigation into him, which he claimed was politically motivated. This development introduced political risk and contributed to a decline in his market odds.

The 2028 Democratic ticket speculation grows around Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%1%

Political analysis suggested Ossoff as a key figure in the 2028 Democratic ticket, increasing market interest and supporting his price rise to 9%. This speculation was tied to his strong social media presence and campaign momentum.

Federal investigation announced into Gavin Newsom and his wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%

California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly disclosed a federal investigation into himself and his wife, which raised concerns about his presidential prospects. While some Democrats might rally around him if the probe is seen as politically motivated, the announcement caused a decline in his market odds.

Newsom's DOJ investigation raises his 2028 presidential odds

Gavin Newsom rises to 27%2%

Newsom's revelation of a Department of Justice investigation in mid-June 2026 paradoxically boosted his 2028 presidential nomination odds, reflecting increased media attention and political positioning.

Jon Ossoff gains national attention as 2028 contender amid Senate reelection

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%4%

Senator Jon Ossoff's rising profile and viral campaign style have made him a notable 2028 Democratic contender, though he publicly denies presidential ambitions, contributing to fluctuating market odds.

Gavin Newsom Announces He and His Wife Are Under Federal Investigation

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that he and his wife are under a federal DOJ investigation, claiming it is a politically motivated attack by Donald Trump due to his 2028 presidential ambitions.

California Governor Gavin Newsom accuses DOJ of politically motivated investigation

Gavin Newsom dips to 23%2%

Newsom publicly claimed that the Trump administration's DOJ was investigating him and his wife as political retaliation linked to his potential 2028 presidential run. This controversy contributed to volatility and a slight decline in his market odds.

Democrats praise Jon Ossoff as rising star and potential 2028 contender

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%1%

Democratic commentators and media outlets highlighted Ossoff's strong campaign and appeal, dubbing him a top contender for 2028. This positive buzz contributed to his market price peaking at 9% on June 13 and sustaining elevated interest.

Gavin Newsom Accuses Trump Administration of Directing Politically Motivated DOJ Investigation Against Him and His Wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%1%

California Governor Gavin Newsom released a video claiming that he and his wife are under federal investigation by the Department of Justice, which he argued was a politically motivated attack targeting him as a potential 2028 presidential contender.

Gavin Newsom announces federal investigation into himself and wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 23%2%

Newsom publicly revealed a federal investigation into him and his wife, which briefly dented his presidential odds as concerns about his viability surfaced, contributing to a price decline from 25% to around 21%.

Jon Ossoff gains 2028 presidential buzz with viral anti-Trump speech

Jon Ossoff plunges to 9%41%

Senator Jon Ossoff's viral speech criticizing Donald Trump increased his profile as a potential 2028 candidate, despite his public denials, leading to a rise in market odds and fundraising success.

Jon Ossoff gains momentum in Democratic nomination market

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Ossoff's market price rose from 7% to 9% by June 13, 2026, reflecting growing perception of his viability as a candidate, bolstered by his Senate race performance and broad appeal within the Democratic Party.

Gavin Newsom confirms he is evaluating a 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms

Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%

Gavin Newsom publicly stated he is seriously considering a 2028 presidential run following the 2026 congressional elections, reinforcing his frontrunner status. This announcement helped stabilize his market price around 24-25%.

Pete Buttigieg to keynote Iowa Democratic event, fueling 2028 speculation

Pete Buttigieg jumps to 12%7%

Pete Buttigieg was announced as the keynote speaker for a major Iowa Democratic event, signaling his continued national presence and fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential run.

Gavin Newsom Hosts Hunter Biden on Podcast for Extended Interview

Gavin Newsom dips to 23%1%

California Governor Gavin Newsom hosted Hunter Biden on his podcast for a 95-minute interview, drawing national media attention to his platform as he continues to build his national profile ahead of a potential 2028 run.

Hunter Biden jokes about running as Gavin Newsom's VP in 2028

During Gavin Newsom's podcast, Hunter Biden jokingly said he would run in 2028 only as Newsom's vice president, which attracted media attention and briefly influenced market sentiment around Newsom's campaign positioning.

New York Times Opinion Piece Boosts Jon Ossoff as Ideal 2028 Candidate

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%2%

An influential opinion piece by Michelle Goldberg in The New York Times argued that Ossoff is the ideal candidate for the 2028 Democratic nomination, further fueling prediction market interest despite his denials.

Joe Biden hints at 2028 run but only as Gavin Newsom's vice president

Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%

On June 11, 2026, President Joe Biden hinted at a 2028 presidential run but stated he would only run as Gavin Newsom's vice president, reinforcing Newsom's frontrunner status and impacting his market price.

Former backers urge Kamala Harris to step aside for fresh 2028 Democratic candidates

Kamala Harris dips to 6%3%

Reports emerged that some of Kamala Harris's former supporters prefer new faces for the 2028 nomination, citing a need for a fresh candidate. This sentiment contributed to a decline in her market odds from 9% to 6%.

Jon Ossoff viral anti-Trump speech sparks 2028 front-runner predictions

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%3%

Senator Jon Ossoff delivered a viral speech sharply criticizing Donald Trump, which led to increased market interest and a rise in his odds as a potential 2028 Democratic nominee, despite his public denials of interest in running.

Kamala Harris faces declining support as backers seek fresh Democratic candidates

Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris's 2028 presidential ambitions faced skepticism from major donors and party leaders who preferred fresh faces, contributing to a decline in her market odds during this period.

Kamala Harris' 2028 Ambitions Face Blow as Former Backers Seek Fresh Faces

Kamala Harris dips to 7%1%

Reports emerged that former allies and major donors are unenthusiastic about a repeat performance by Kamala Harris, preferring a fresh candidate for the 2028 ticket.

Jon Ossoff's Senate prominence and fundraising boost his profile

Jon Ossoff rises to 8%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff's strong fundraising and visibility as a key Democratic figure in Georgia increased his appeal as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, contributing to a steady rise in his market price from 6% to 8%.

Former allies express doubts about Kamala Harris's 2028 presidential prospects, favoring fresh candidates

Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%

Reports emerged that influential Democratic donors and former supporters of Kamala Harris prefer a fresh candidate for 2028, leading to a decline in her market price from 9% to 7%.

Kamala Harris faces skepticism from former allies over 2028 presidential bid

Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%

Reports revealed that some of Kamala Harris's former supporters prefer a fresh Democratic candidate rather than her for 2028, dampening enthusiasm for her potential run. This skepticism contributed to a slight decline in her market price during this period.

Kamala Harris purchases $8.15 million Malibu home amid 2028 speculation

Kamala Harris dips to 7%1%

Kamala Harris and her husband bought a high-profile Malibu mansion in June 2026, signaling personal and political stability that may influence perceptions of her 2028 candidacy, though her market price slightly declined from 8% to 7% by mid-June amid mixed donor enthusiasm.

Jon Ossoff Rejects 2028 Presidential Speculation as 'Fantasy Football'

Jon Ossoff rises to 8%1%

Despite growing online enthusiasm and comparisons to Barack Obama, Senator Jon Ossoff explicitly stated he has zero interest in running for president in 2028, urging Democrats to focus on the 2026 midterms.

Prediction Markets Start Pricing Jon Ossoff as 2028 Contender for President

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

As Senator Jon Ossoff's 2026 Senate reelection campaign gained momentum, prediction markets began warming to him as a potential 2028 presidential contender, lifting his odds.

Gina Raimondo Rules Out 2028 Presidential Run, Endorses Open Primary

Former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo distanced herself from the 2028 presidential race, pouring cold water on a potential run and advocating for a competitive, open primary for the Democratic ticket.

Prediction markets warm to Jon Ossoff as 2028 contender amid strong Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

Jon Ossoff's market price rose as prediction markets recognized his viability for 2028, boosted by his strong position in the 2026 Georgia Senate race and broad appeal within the Democratic Party.

New York Times publishes opinion piece highlighting Jon Ossoff as ideal 2028 candidate

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

An influential New York Times opinion article published on June 8, 2026, praised Jon Ossoff's anti-corruption message and broad appeal, boosting his market odds from 7% to 9% by June 13, signaling growing perception of his viability despite his denials of presidential ambitions.

Jon Ossoff viral anti-Trump speech sparks 2028 front-runner predictions

Jon Ossoff rises to 8%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff delivered a viral speech sharply criticizing Donald Trump, which increased his national profile and led to predictions that he could become a front-runner for the 2028 Democratic nomination. This boosted market confidence in Ossoff's chances.

Media profiles and rising buzz position Senator Jon Ossoff as a potential 2028 unity candidate

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%

Prominent features in national outlets like the New York Times and Politico touted Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff as a leading 2028 contender, causing his prediction market odds to rise.

New York Times Opinion Piece Boosts Jon Ossoff's Profile as Ideal 2028 Candidate

An influential opinion piece in The New York Times highlighted Senator Jon Ossoff as a premier potential 2028 candidate, sparking a wave of online enthusiasm and driving his market price upward.

Op-Ed highlights Jon Ossoff as a compelling 2028 Democratic presidential prospect

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

A New York Times opinion piece praised Jon Ossoff's anti-corruption message and broad appeal, increasing market interest in his potential 2028 presidential candidacy despite his denials. This media attention coincided with a price increase from 7% to 9%.

New York Times highlights Jon Ossoff as a compelling 2028 Democratic prospect

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

The New York Times published an opinion piece praising Jon Ossoff's anti-corruption message and broad appeal, comparing him to Barack Obama and positioning him as an ideal 2028 candidate. This media endorsement contributed to a rise in his market odds from 7% to 9%.

Kamala Harris faces donor skepticism and calls for fresh Democratic candidates

Kamala Harris dips to 7%2%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris, considering a 2028 presidential bid, encountered skepticism from some former donors and supporters who expressed a preference for new, fresh voices in the Democratic Party. This sentiment contributed to a decline in her market price from 9% to 7%.

The New York Times publishes opinion piece highlighting Jon Ossoff as ideal 2028 candidate

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

An influential New York Times opinion article titled "Why Everyone Wants Jon Ossoff to Run for President" was published, boosting Ossoff's profile and market odds from 7% to 9% by June 13. The piece emphasized Ossoff's appeal and potential despite his denials of presidential ambitions, increasing market enthusiasm.

New York Times Column Highlights Growing Democratic Desire for Jon Ossoff Presidential Run

An influential opinion piece in The New York Times detailed why Democrats are increasingly viewing Senator Jon Ossoff as an ideal 2028 presidential contender, boosting his national profile.

Jon Ossoff criticizes Trump and allies at Atlanta rally, energizing Democratic base

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

At a campaign rally in Atlanta, Jon Ossoff sharply criticized Donald Trump, JD Vance, and Stephen Miller, framing Americans as united by ideas rather than ethnicity. This speech helped rally Democratic supporters and contributed to Ossoff's rising market price.

Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event

Kamala Harris rises to 9%1%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris stated she is "thinking about" running again in 2028, briefly supporting her market price around 7-9%, though her odds later declined amid skepticism about her viability.

Georgia Republican Senate Primary Ends in Runoff to Challenge Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

The Republican primary to challenge Senator Jon Ossoff ended in a runoff between Mike Collins and Derek Dooley. The failure of the GOP to quickly unite behind a single challenger boosted Ossoff's reelection outlook and his 2028 presidential market odds.

Jon Ossoff pressures Georgia Democratic Party Chair to step down

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

Ossoff exerted influence behind the scenes to oust Nikema Williams as Georgia Democratic Party Chair, citing concerns about her dual roles and leadership effectiveness. This internal party conflict highlighted Ossoff's strategic positioning ahead of his reelection campaign, impacting market sentiment.

Gavin Newsom maintains lead in fragmented 2028 Democratic nomination market

Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%

Despite fluctuations, Newsom remains the front-runner with about 25% market probability, reflecting sustained trader confidence.

Gavin Newsom signals 2028 presidential ambitions after 2026 midterms

Gavin Newsom rises to 27%4%

Gavin Newsom publicly stated he is considering a 2028 presidential run, indicating he will decide after the 2026 midterm elections. This announcement increased market confidence in his nomination chances, pushing his price from 23% to 27%.

Jon Ossoff holds major campaign rally in Atlanta boosting reelection and 2028 profile

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff held a joint campaign rally with gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms, energizing the Democratic base and increasing his visibility as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, contributing to his market price rise from 5% to 7%.

Jon Ossoff faces criticism for vote to limit U.S. weapons sales to Israel

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Following his vote supporting resolutions to restrict arms sales to Israel, Ossoff faced backlash from Jewish leaders and community members in Georgia, including criticism from the Israeli consul general and his childhood synagogue's rabbi. This controversy likely influenced market perceptions, contributing to Ossoff's price increase.

Josh Shapiro positions himself for 2028 presidential run amid reelection campaign

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro launched his 2026 reelection campaign while signaling national ambitions for 2028, increasing his visibility and market interest despite his public reluctance to discuss a presidential bid.

Josh Shapiro and Stacy Garrity prepare for Pennsylvania gubernatorial showdown

The upcoming Pennsylvania governor race between Josh Shapiro and Stacy Garrity has drawn national attention, with Shapiro's strong position bolstering his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, supporting his market odds.

Gavin Newsom hits peak market support amid 2028 speculation

Gavin Newsom rises to 27%3%

Newsom's market price peaked at 27% on June 1, 2026, reflecting heightened optimism about his candidacy following his final State of the State speech and increased media attention positioning him as a leading contender.

Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms Hold Joint Campaign Rally in Atlanta

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff and Georgia gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms held a joint campaign rally in Atlanta, demonstrating party unity and boosting Ossoff's visibility as a key leader.

Jon Ossoff delivers viral 30-minute campaign speech in Atlanta rally

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

Ossoff's May 31 rally speech gained significant attention for its authenticity and appeal, enhancing his profile as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential contender and contributing to a rise in his market price from 6% to 7%.

Jon Ossoff Delivers Viral Anti-Trump Speech in Atlanta, Boosting 2028 Speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff delivered a fiery campaign speech at a rally in Atlanta criticizing Donald Trump. The speech went viral on social media, prompting progressive commentators to float him as a viable 2028 presidential contender.

Jon Ossoff Delivers Viral Campaign Speech at Atlanta Rally

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff delivered a powerful 30-minute campaign speech in Atlanta that went viral on social media, drawing comparisons to Barack Obama and fueling intense speculation about a 2028 presidential run.

Jon Ossoff delivers energetic campaign speech in Atlanta emphasizing voting rights and grassroots movement

Ossoff's May 31 speech in Atlanta critiqued current administration policies and called for protecting voting rights and building a broad coalition, energizing his base and contributing to a gradual increase in his market price.

Jon Ossoff gains momentum as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender amid Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff's rising profile as a young, charismatic leader and his active campaign for Senate reelection in Georgia increased his visibility as a potential 2028 presidential candidate. Media coverage and political commentary boosted market confidence, raising his price from 5% to 7%.

Mike Collins wins Georgia GOP Senate runoff, setting up high-stakes battle against Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Mike Collins secured the Republican nomination for the 2026 Georgia Senate race, endorsed by Donald Trump, setting up a competitive race against incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff. This heightened Ossoff's profile and market interest in his potential 2028 presidential run, contributing to his price rise from 5% to 7%.

Jon Ossoff Kicks Off Reelection Campaign with Viral Speech in Atlanta

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff delivered a powerful 30-minute campaign speech at a rally in Atlanta, which quickly went viral on social media and sparked widespread speculation about his 2028 presidential potential.

Jon Ossoff Launches High-Profile Joint Campaign Rally in Atlanta to Boost Reelection Bid

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff held a major joint campaign rally with gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms at The Tabernacle in Atlanta, delivering a powerful speech that energized the Democratic base and highlighted their head start over Republicans.

Jon Ossoff Delivers Major Campaign Speech in Atlanta Rally

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

On May 31, 2026, Jon Ossoff gave a 30-minute campaign speech in Atlanta, emphasizing his opposition to Trump and appealing to a broad coalition. This event increased his visibility and contributed to a gradual rise in his market price from 5% to 7% in early June.

Sen. Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms Hold Joint Campaign Rally in Atlanta

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff and Georgia gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms held their first joint campaign rally in Atlanta, demonstrating party unity and boosting Ossoff's visibility as a key leader.

Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms hold joint campaign rally in Atlanta

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff and gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms held a joint rally signaling a united Democratic front in Georgia ahead of the 2026 midterms, boosting Ossoff's visibility and support, which correlated with a rise in his market price.

Pete Buttigieg leads early 2028 Democratic presidential poll

An Emerson College poll showed Pete Buttigieg leading among Democratic voters for the 2028 nomination with 18% support, surpassing Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, reinforcing his frontrunner status.

Pete Buttigieg Surges to Lead in New 2028 Democratic Primary Poll

A national survey showed former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leading the hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary field, edging out Gavin Newsom.

Emerson College Poll Shows Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom Leading Crowded 2028 Field

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%1%

A national survey by Emerson College Polling showed Pete Buttigieg leading with 18% support, closely followed by Gavin Newsom at 16% and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%, highlighting a highly competitive and fragmented early field.

Gretchen Whitmer Walks Back Statement Ruling Out 2028 Presidential Run

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer initially stated she would not make a bid for the White House in 2028, but quickly walked back the statement, keeping her options open and maintaining the highly fragmented nature of the Democratic field.

Emerson College Poll Shows Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom Leading 2028 Field

A national survey by Emerson College Polling showed Pete Buttigieg leading the hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary field with 18% support, closely followed by Gavin Newsom at 16% and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaigns in Montana, signaling 2028 ambitions

Ocasio-Cortez held a rally in Missoula, Montana, supporting a congressional candidate, signaling increased political activity and possible presidential ambitions, which supported her steady market price around 9%.

Emerson College Poll Shows Pete Buttigieg Leading Among Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates

A new Emerson College poll released on May 28, 2026, identified Pete Buttigieg as the top potential contender in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary, with 18% support among likely Democratic primary voters. This poll influenced market perceptions but did not significantly affect Jon Ossoff's price.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer rules out 2028 presidential run

Whitmer publicly announced she will not run for president in 2028, removing a potential contender and maintaining a fragmented Democratic field. This clarified the candidate landscape but had limited direct impact on market prices.

Pete Buttigieg leads early 2028 Democratic presidential polls

Polls in mid-2026 showed Pete Buttigieg leading among potential Democratic 2028 presidential candidates, reinforcing his market position as a serious contender despite no formal campaign announcement.

Emerson College Poll Places Pete Buttigieg in the Lead for 2028 Democratic Primary

Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%

A national poll by Emerson College showed Pete Buttigieg leading the prospective 2028 Democratic field with 18% support, followed by Gavin Newsom at 16% and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%.

Pete Buttigieg tops new 2028 Democratic presidential primary poll

An Emerson College poll placed Buttigieg at 18%, ahead of Newsom and others, boosting his market position.

Sen. Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms link arms amid crime and law enforcement debates

On May 27, 2026, Jon Ossoff publicly aligned with Keisha Lance Bottoms, a figure criticized for soft-on-crime policies, which drew Republican attacks and highlighted Ossoff's political positioning in Georgia. This association likely contributed to Ossoff's price movements as it affected perceptions of his electability.

Kamala Harris says she is ‘thinking about’ running in 2028 presidential election

Kamala Harris dips to 6%2%

At the National Action Network convention Harris told Rev. Al Sharpton she was “thinking about” a 2028 run. The remark, covered by CNN, increased speculation about her candidacy and corresponded with a gradual slide in her market price from 8 % to 6 % by the end of June.

AOC takes more steps toward 2028 run for president

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%1%

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez signaled her national ambitions by traveling to Montana to campaign for a congressional candidate and refusing to rule out a 2028 White House bid.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez signals ambition to change the country, fueling 2028 speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%

In a May 2026 interview, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez expressed her ambition to change the country, which fueled speculation about a potential 2028 presidential run and helped stabilize her market odds after earlier declines.

Jon Ossoff's Scathing Anti-Trump Speech at Atlanta Church Goes Viral, Sparking 2028 Speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 8%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff delivered a fiery speech at Big Bethel A.M.E. Church in Atlanta criticizing Donald Trump. The speech went viral on social media, prompting prominent progressive commentators to predict he would become a frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic nomination.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez takes steps toward 2028 presidential run with national campaigning

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 14%6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez increased her national presence by campaigning for congressional candidates and making public appearances, signaling her ambitions beyond her district and fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, which correlated with a rise in her market price from 8% to 14%.

Axios Reports Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's Escalating Moves Toward 2028 Run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%1%

Axios reported that Ocasio-Cortez has transitioned from a speculative long shot to a formidable polling leader, with other potential contenders actively maneuvering around her rise.

Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event

Kamala Harris rises to 10%2%

Kamala Harris publicly stated she is "thinking about" running for president again in 2028 during a speech at the National Action Network convention, sparking speculation and debate about her political future. This announcement initially supported her market price but also led to mixed reactions about her viability.

Pollster highlights Jon Ossoff's strong messaging to GOP voters ahead of 2028 speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

On May 22, 2026, a Republican pollster praised Jon Ossoff's messaging effectiveness, which contributed to increased market confidence in his viability as a 2028 Democratic presidential nominee, reflected in a price rise from 6% to 7%.

Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event

Harris publicly indicated she is considering a 2028 presidential run during a high-profile event, energizing supporters but facing internal party resistance, which contributed to mixed market and polling signals.

DNC releases 2024 election autopsy report amid pressure including from Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris dips to 8%1%

The Democratic National Committee released a detailed autopsy report on the 2024 election loss after pressure from party members and Kamala Harris, highlighting challenges that may influence the party's future strategies and Harris's political positioning.

Republican Pollster Praises Jon Ossoff's Messaging Effectiveness

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

Republican pollster Rich Baris praised Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff's populist messaging on Tucker Carlson's podcast, boosting Ossoff's national profile and market confidence in his 2028 viability.

DNC postelection autopsy criticizes Kamala Harris’s 2024 campaign

The Democratic National Committee released a detailed postelection autopsy faulting Kamala Harris for writing off rural America and lacking sufficient negative attacks on Donald Trump, which raised doubts about her 2028 presidential prospects and contributed to a decline in her market price.

Gavin Newsom speaks at Center for American Progress Ideas Conference, reinforcing national profile

Newsom's appearance at a major policy conference in Washington, D.C., bolstered his national visibility and reinforced his frontrunner status for the 2028 Democratic nomination, supporting his market position around 24-25%.

Newsom unveils $349 billion 2026‑27 California budget and says he’ll weigh a 2028 presidential run

Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%

Governor Newsom released the 2026‑27 state budget revision, a $349.4 billion plan that highlighted his progressive agenda and reiterated his intent to consider a 2028 presidential bid after the midterms. The high‑visibility budget drew national media coverage and lifted his market price from 24 % to 25 % on May 19, then kept it near that level through early June.

Josh Shapiro wins Pennsylvania primary, boosting 2028 speculation

Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%

Shapiro's primary victory and strong fundraising positioned him as a viable 2028 contender, reflected in a modest increase in his market probability.

Georgia Republican Senate primary heads to runoff to challenge Jon Ossoff

No Republican candidate secured a majority in the May 19 primary, leading to a runoff that delayed the selection of Ossoff's opponent and maintained his strong position, supported by record fundraising, which helped stabilize his market price.

Josh Shapiro focuses on Pennsylvania reelection, downplays 2028 presidential campaign

Josh Shapiro dips to 5%1%

Shapiro concentrated on his 2026 gubernatorial race in Pennsylvania, avoiding early presidential primary states and limiting national campaign activity, contributing to his low market price.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez takes steps toward 2028 presidential run

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez made moves consistent with preparing for a possible 2028 presidential campaign, including campaigning outside her district and expanding fundraising, though she has not formally declared.

Democratic candidates Josh Shapiro and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez maintain low market prices amid ongoing controversies

Both Shapiro and Ocasio-Cortez's market prices remained low due to lingering controversies and challenges within the Democratic Party, reflecting skepticism about their 2028 nomination chances.

Gavin Newsom’s poll surge after high‑profile endorsement by Hollywood star

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%2%

A late‑May endorsement from a major Hollywood figure boosted Newsom’s visibility and poll numbers, nudging his market price slightly higher despite overall market volatility.

Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential bid in BBC interview

Kamala Harris dips to 9%1%

Kamala Harris expressed openness to running again in 2028 during a BBC interview, fueling speculation and maintaining her profile as a leading contender despite mixed party support and polling. This contributed to modest price fluctuations in her market position.

Josh Shapiro faces scrutiny over handling of harassment claims and security upgrades

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

Governor Josh Shapiro's handling of sexual harassment claims and use of taxpayer funds for security upgrades drew criticism, potentially weakening his political standing and contributing to a decline in his market price.

Pete Buttigieg holds event in Cedar Rapids fueling 2028 speculation

Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%

Buttigieg's public appearances and endorsements in key states increased his visibility and market odds as a potential 2028 candidate.

Poll shows Pete Buttigieg leading potential 2028 Democratic field

Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%

An Emerson College poll found Buttigieg leading among Democratic primary voters, signaling rising support and influencing market prices upward for his nomination chances.

AtlasIntel Poll Shows Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Leading Potential 2028 Democratic Field

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%

An AtlasIntel poll conducted in early May showed progressive Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading potential 2028 Democratic candidates with 26% support, boosting her market odds.

Pete Buttigieg campaigns for Democrats ahead of midterms, signaling 2028 ambitions

Buttigieg's active campaigning for Democrats in key races ahead of the 2026 midterms increased his visibility and speculation about a 2028 presidential run, stabilizing his market price around 4%.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Leads 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary Poll

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%2%

A new AtlasIntel poll showed Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading the prospective 2028 Democratic field with 26% support, boosting her market profile.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez signals possible 2028 presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 8%1%

AOC's increased campaigning and public statements about her ambitions raised speculation about a 2028 run, though her market price declined amid uncertainty and competition.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads new national Democratic poll for 2028 nomination

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 14%6%

A May 2026 AtlasIntel poll showed Ocasio-Cortez leading the Democratic field nationally with 26% support, surpassing Buttigieg and Newsom. This poll surge boosted her market odds from 8% to 14% by early July, reflecting increased market confidence in her candidacy.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez surges to lead in national Democratic poll

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%

A May 12, 2026 AtlasIntel poll showed Ocasio-Cortez leading the Democratic field with 26% support, surpassing Buttigieg and Newsom. This poll surge boosted her market price from 8% to around 9%, reflecting increased investor confidence in her candidacy.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear Expresses Comfort with 2028 Presidential Speculation

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

Governor Andy Beshear stated he is comfortable being discussed as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, though he will defer formal decisions until his term as DGA chair ends.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear hints at 2028 presidential run

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

Governor Andy Beshear expressed comfort with being named a potential 2028 presidential candidate, supporting a modest market rise to 3%.

Gov. Beshear comfortable being cited as potential 2028 candidate

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

Kentucky Gov. Beshear said he was comfortable being named a potential 2028 candidate, nudging his price from 2 % to 3 % as traders added a modest bump to his odds.

Gov. Andy Beshear says he is ‘comfortable’ being named potential Democratic presidential candidate

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

In a May‑11 interview with MS NOW, Beshear said he was “comfortable” being mentioned as a possible 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, prompting traders to nudge his market price up from 2 % to 3 % over the next two weeks.

Andy Beshear comfortable being named potential 2028 Democratic candidate

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear expressed comfort with being discussed as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, signaling his interest and causing a slight market price increase.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear says he is comfortable being named a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

Andy Beshear publicly expressed comfort with being considered a potential 2028 presidential candidate, supporting a modest rise in his market price from 2% to 3%.

Gavin Newsom publicly acknowledges weighing a 2028 presidential run

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%1%

Gavin Newsom stated he plans to decide on a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms, increasing his visibility as a potential candidate. This announcement coincided with polls showing strong Democratic support for his candidacy, which initially supported his market price around 24-25%.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear comfortable with 2028 presidential speculation

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

Beshear acknowledged being comfortable with talk of a 2028 run, which supported a modest increase in his market price.

Zohran Mamdani sworn in as New York City mayor, pledges democratic socialism

Mamdani's inauguration as NYC mayor and his commitment to democratic socialism, supported by figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, highlighted the progressive wing's influence, impacting Ocasio-Cortez's market perception.

Gavin Newsom visits New Hampshire on book tour, fueling 2028 speculation

Newsom's visit to New Hampshire, a key early primary state, for his book tour generated buzz about his national ambitions and increased speculation about a 2028 presidential run, supporting his market price around 24%.

Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 president, highlighting GOP unity

The endorsement of JD Vance by a major conservative group signaled early GOP consolidation, contrasting with the fragmented Democratic field and indirectly affecting Democratic nominee market dynamics, including Newsom's prospects.

Poll shows Gavin Newsom leads Democratic field with 24% support for 2028 nomination

A late‑May poll of Democratic voters placed Newsom at 24% support, the highest among all potential nominees, reinforcing his market price increase to the endpoint of 24% and confirming his status as the market’s front‑runner.

Jon Ossoff gains attention with viral anti-Trump speech and fundraising surge

Jon Ossoff plunges to 9%41%

Ossoff's viral speech criticizing Trump and strong fundraising efforts increased his profile and market odds, despite his public statements denying interest in running for president in 2028.

Gavin Newsom acknowledges evaluating a 2028 presidential campaign

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%

Gavin Newsom publicly confirmed he is considering a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms, maintaining his position as the market frontrunner despite some price decline from 25% to 20%.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez discusses 2028 presidential ambitions in interview with David Axelrod

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%

Ocasio-Cortez spoke about her ambition to change the country and did not rule out a 2028 presidential run, maintaining interest in her candidacy despite declining market prices.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez expresses ambition to 'change this country' amid 2028 speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%

In a May 2026 interview, AOC stated her ambition is to change the country, fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential run and stabilizing her market odds after a steep decline from earlier highs.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Teases National Ambitions in Axelrod Interview

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stated her ambition is to 'change this country' during an interview with David Axelrod, fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential bid.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declares ambition to change the country amid 2028 speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%

In early May 2026, AOC publicly stated her ambition to change the country during a political forum, fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential run and stabilizing her market odds after earlier declines.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leaves door open for 2028 presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declined to deny speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, emphasizing her ambition to change the country rather than seek a title, which kept her in the market conversation despite lower odds.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Addresses 2028 Speculation in Chicago

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez left the door open for a potential 2028 presidential or Senate run during a political forum hosted by David Axelrod.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez signals possible 2028 presidential ambitions

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez made moves toward a potential 2028 presidential run, traveling for campaigns and expanding her grassroots support, though she has not formally declared candidacy.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leaves door open for 2028 presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%

Ocasio-Cortez declined to rule out a presidential bid in 2028 during a public event, emphasizing her broader ambition to change the country, which increased speculation and modestly supported her market price around 8-9%.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declines to rule out 2028 presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%

In an interview with David Axelrod, AOC emphasized her ambition to change the country rather than seek office, fueling ongoing speculation about a potential 2028 run despite her public ambivalence, contributing to a decline in her market price.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Demurs on 2028 Run, Emphasizes Policy Ambitions

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%

During an interview with David Axelrod, Rep. Ocasio-Cortez did not deny a potential 2028 run but stated her primary ambition is to change the country through policy.

Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention

Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%

Buttigieg responded to a question about running again in 2028 with 'You save me a seat. I'll be there,' signaling his intention to run and boosting his market position as a leading contender.

Mark Kelly’s profile rises after legal victory against Trump administration

Kelly’s legal win against the Trump administration’s actions elevated his national standing and fundraising, boosting speculation about a 2028 presidential run and increasing his market price slightly.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear expresses comfort with 2028 presidential speculation

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

Beshear acknowledged being comfortable with his name floated as a 2028 contender, modestly increasing his market odds as he gains attention among Democrats.

Andy Beshear gains national attention as Democratic Governors Association chair

Beshear's election as chair of the Democratic Governors Association and national exposure raised his profile as a potential 2028 candidate, maintaining his market price around 3%.

Kamala Harris surges in 2028 Democratic primary polls

Kamala Harris jumps to 10%5%

Harris's polling surge to 50% support among Democrats positioned her as the early front-runner for the 2028 nomination, boosting her market price significantly.

Josh Shapiro and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez clash over midterm congressional race

Josh Shapiro rises to 6%1%

Reports of intra-party conflict between Shapiro and Ocasio-Cortez affected their market prices, reflecting ongoing controversies.

Andy Beshear signs emergency orders to freeze Kentucky gas tax amid affordability concerns

Beshear's actions to address economic issues in Kentucky reinforced his image as a pragmatic leader, supporting his consideration as a 2028 presidential contender.

Kamala Harris endorses Karen Bass in Los Angeles mayoral race

Kamala Harris rises to 10%2%

Kamala Harris's endorsement of Karen Bass in the LA mayoral race signaled her continued influence in California politics and strategic positioning ahead of 2028, affecting her market standing.

California launches free‑diaper program for newborns

Gavin Newsom dips to 25%1%

The new social‑policy initiative showcased Newsom’s focus on family‑friendly measures, slightly raising his profile among progressive voters and nudging his market price upward.

Halle Berry criticizes Newsom for vetoing menopause bill, questioning presidential suitability

Gavin Newsom dips to 25%2%

Berry's public condemnation of Newsom's veto on women's health legislation raised questions about his support among female voters, impacting his market price.

Kamala Harris regains some market support amid speculation of 2028 presidential run

Kamala Harris jumps to 11%7%

Harris's market price rose slightly due to renewed speculation about her potential 2028 presidential candidacy and public appearances.

Gavin Newsom praises Canadian PM Mark Carney's stance against Trump at Davos

Newsom's endorsement of Carney's criticism of Trump reinforced his positioning as a progressive leader opposing Trump, maintaining his market support.

Josh Shapiro raises $30 million for Pennsylvania governor reelection

Shapiro's record fundraising for his reelection bid elevated his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, though his market price remained low due to prior controversies.

Liberal columnist argues Kamala Harris should not be 2028 Democratic nominee

Kamala Harris dips to 6%3%

A USA Today opinion piece criticized Kamala Harris's viability for the 2028 nomination, citing her 2024 loss and lack of progress since, which contributed to a decline in her market price from 9% to 6%.

Rahm Emanuel’s endorsement of another candidate sidelines his own prospects

Emanuel publicly endorsed a fellow Democrat, effectively ending his own campaign and driving his market price down to the lowest level.

Halle Berry criticizes Newsom for vetoing menopause bill, questions presidential suitability

Gavin Newsom dips to 25%1%

Actress Halle Berry publicly condemned Newsom for vetoing menopause-related legislation, framing it as devaluing women and questioning his presidential prospects, impacting his public image.

Liberal columnist urges Democrats not to support Kamala Harris for 2028

Kamala Harris dips to 6%3%

A USA Today columnist argued that Harris's chances of winning in 2028 are slim due to her past defeat and lack of recent accomplishments, contributing to a decline in her market price.

San Jose mayor Matt Mahan criticizes Newsom’s handling of homelessness and crime

Gavin Newsom rises to 27%2%

Mahan, a critic of Newsom and candidate for California governor, emphasized his moderate stance and record on homelessness and crime, challenging Newsom’s legacy and potentially impacting his presidential bid.

Kamala Harris' nomination chances briefly rebound amid speculation of 2028 bid

Kamala Harris rises to 10%4%

Speculation about Harris considering a 2028 presidential run led to a temporary increase in her market price, reflecting renewed interest in her candidacy despite earlier declines.

Rahm Emanuel’s support erodes after policy disagreement with party leadership

Rahm Emanuel rises to 3%1%

Emanuel’s public clash with Democratic leadership over a tax proposal reduced his appeal, moving his market price from 2% to 3% as some voters shifted away.

Tom Steyer’s massive ad spend fails to boost his poll numbers

Gavin Newsom rises to 33%3%

Despite spending over $115 million on advertising in the California governor race, Steyer’s polling remained flat, signaling limited impact on national perception of Democratic leaders and contributing to a modest rise in Newsom’s price from 30% to 33% as he emerged as the clear front‑runner.

Gavin Newsom's national profile grows with aggressive media strategy

Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%

Newsom's adoption of a combative online presence and podcasting increased his visibility and appeal to a broader audience, supporting a price rebound from 24% to 26%.

Newsom’s national rise shapes public perception ahead of 2028 run

Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%

Newsom’s strategic communication style and outreach to conservative audiences enhanced his national profile, supporting his market position.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez adopts media avoidance amid 2028 speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 12%4%

Ocasio-Cortez limited national media interviews and avoided direct questions about a presidential run, signaling a cautious approach that coincided with a decline in her market odds.

Jon Ossoff rises in prediction markets amid increased national profile

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%2%

Ossoff's rising prominence and sharper rhetoric against corruption boosted his market chances temporarily, though he publicly denied interest in running for president.

Ossoff: ‘Zero interest’ in running for president in 2028

Jon Ossoff dips to 6%3%

Sen. Ossoff told MS NOW that he has “zero interest” in a 2028 run, which sent his market price down from 8 % to 6 % as the field narrowed around other viable candidates.

Jon Ossoff declares zero interest in 2028 presidential run, focuses on midterms

Jon Ossoff plunges to 6%44%

Ossoff publicly stated he has no interest in running for president in 2028, emphasizing the importance of winning the 2026 midterms. This announcement led to a significant drop in his market odds.

Narcan training highlights community engagement amid Newsom's rising profile

Community-focused events like Narcan training reflect Newsom's ongoing engagement with public health issues, supporting steady market confidence around 26%.

Jon Ossoff criticized for accepting billionaire donations despite rhetoric

Jon Ossoff dips to 5%1%

Reports revealed Ossoff's acceptance of significant donations from billionaires, contradicting his public stance against such influence, damaging his credibility and market position.

Jon Ossoff's 2028 nomination odds rise after critical rally in Georgia

Jon Ossoff rises to 8%4%

Following a rally where Ossoff criticized the Trump administration's corruption and economic issues, his market odds increased, reflecting growing support despite his public disinterest in running.

Jon Ossoff Surges in 2028 Prediction Markets After Augusta Rally

Jon Ossoff rises to 8%4%

Senator Jon Ossoff's odds rose significantly in prediction markets following a fiery speech in Augusta, Georgia, where he heavily criticized the Trump administration.

Sen. Jon Ossoff slams ‘Mar‑a‑Lago Mafia’ at Augusta rally

Jon Ossoff jumps to 8%6%

Ossoff delivered a rally in Augusta denouncing the “Mar‑a‑Lago Mafia,” causing his market price to rise from 2 % to 8 % as traders viewed his anti‑Trump stance as a boost to his national profile.

Jon Ossoff delivers fiery speech amid presidential bid rumors

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff criticized President Trump and addressed speculation about a 2028 presidential run, raising his profile though he publicly denied interest in running.

Jon Ossoff Rises in Prediction Markets After Scathing Anti-Corruption Speech in Augusta

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff saw his standing improve in 2028 Democratic presidential nomination prediction markets following a viral speech in Augusta targeting executive branch corruption.

Poll shows Democratic primary voters favor less‑established candidates over Newsom

Gavin Newsom rises to 28%3%

A mid‑year poll indicated voters were leaning toward newer faces, causing Newsom’s price to rise modestly to 28% while the odds for other front‑runners fell further.

Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event

Kamala Harris rises to 9%3%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly indicated she is 'thinking about' running for president again in 2028 during an interview with Rev. Al Sharpton.

Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State speech, touts California as national model

Gavin Newsom rises to 28%3%

Newsom's final State of the State address emphasized California's progressive policies and opposition to federal overreach, boosting his national profile and slightly increasing his nomination market price.

Halle Berry criticizes Newsom for vetoing menopause bill

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%2%

Actress Halle Berry publicly condemned Governor Newsom for vetoing a menopause-related healthcare bill, accusing him of devaluing women. This criticism from a high-profile advocate brought negative attention to Newsom's record on women's health, potentially affecting his presidential prospects.

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race

Gavin Newsom rises to 27%2%

Mahan's entry added a moderate Democratic candidate critical of Newsom, influencing the dynamics of the governor's race and potentially Newsom's 2028 prospects, reflected in minor market fluctuations.

Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential run: ‘You save me a seat’

Pete Buttigieg rises to 8%3%

At the National Action Network convention, Buttigieg answered Sharpton’s question with “You save me a seat. I’ll be there,” which was interpreted as a clear signal of a 2028 bid and nudged his price up from 5 % to 8 % over the next two weeks.

Pete Buttigieg hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention

At the National Action Network convention Buttigieg answered a direct question with the phrase “Save me a seat,” a cryptic hint that revived speculation and caused a brief uptick from 4 % to 5 % before the price fell back to 4 % by the end of the window.

Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event

Kamala Harris rises to 9%3%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly indicated she was 'thinking about' running for president again in 2028 during an event with Rev. Al Sharpton, raising speculation and causing a modest rise in her market price from 6% to 9%.

Kamala Harris gains momentum amid California governor race and national positioning

Kamala Harris rises to 8%3%

Kamala Harris's market price rose from 5% to 8% in mid-April 2026, reflecting increased attention as a potential 2028 nominee, possibly boosted by Newsom's weakening position and her own national profile.

California proposes K-12 education governance reform under Newsom

Gavin Newsom dips to 25%2%

Newsom proposed shifting more power to the governor and State Board of Education to streamline K-12 governance, signaling his focus on education reform as part of his leadership portfolio.

Kamala Harris signals she is considering 2028 presidential run

Kamala Harris rises to 9%4%

At the National Action Network convention, Harris gave her clearest signal yet that she may run for president in 2028, boosting her market price from around 5% to 9%.

Kamala Harris confirms she might run for president in 2028

Kamala Harris rises to 7%1%

Harris publicly stated she is considering a 2028 presidential run, which maintained her presence in the nomination conversation despite lower market odds compared to Newsom.

Trump mocks Newsom's dyslexia, sparking public debate

Gavin Newsom rises to 28%1%

Trump's attacks on Newsom's dyslexia brought national attention to Newsom's personal challenges and resilience, influencing public perception and market sentiment.

Kamala Harris signals possible 2028 presidential run

Kamala Harris rises to 9%3%

Harris publicly stated she 'might' run for president again in 2028, providing a clear signal that she remains a contender, which caused her market price to stabilize and slightly rise.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez downplays 2028 presidential ambitions

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 9%1%

AOC emphasized her focus on serving her district and expressed ambitions beyond holding office, which contributed to a decline in her market price from earlier highs.

Kamala Harris publicly signals consideration of 2028 presidential bid at National Action Network

Kamala Harris rises to 10%1%

Harris said 'I might, I might. I'm thinking about it,' in response to questions about running again, reinforcing her status as a top contender and supporting her market price around 10%.

Kamala Harris Confirms She Is Thinking About Running in 2028

Kamala Harris rises to 7%3%

At the National Action Network convention, former Vice President Kamala Harris gave her clearest public confirmation yet that she is considering a 2028 presidential campaign.

Kamala Harris openly considers 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention

Kamala Harris rises to 10%2%

Kamala Harris made her most explicit public signal yet about considering a 2028 presidential run during the National Action Network convention, boosting her market position.

Pete Buttigieg fuels 2028 run speculation with remarks at National Action Network convention

Pete Buttigieg rises to 16%4%

Buttigieg's remarks at the convention, including criticism of Trump and hints at running, reinforced his potential candidacy and maintained market interest despite earlier challenges.

Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention

Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%

Buttigieg's remarks at the convention and subsequent media appearances increased his visibility and polling leads in early primary states, boosting his market position.

Kamala Harris signals she might run for president in 2028

Kamala Harris rises to 8%2%

Harris publicly indicated she is considering a 2028 presidential run, which briefly increased market interest in her candidacy despite mixed party enthusiasm.

Pete Buttigieg hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention

Pete Buttigieg rises to 20%4%

Buttigieg's public hint about a 2028 run energized supporters and briefly increased his market probability, signaling his intent to remain a key player in the race.

Newsom faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in final year as California governor

Gavin Newsom dips to 25%2%

The budget shortfall constrained Newsom's ability to advance new programs, potentially weakening his presidential bid and causing a slight market decline.

Josh Shapiro hints at 2028 presidential bid at National Action Network convention

Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%

Shapiro's comments about wanting to be part of the 2028 conversation raised speculation about his presidential ambitions, though he emphasized focus on midterms, leading to slight market interest.

Senator Jon Ossoff Rules Out 2028 Presidential Run to Focus on Georgia Re-Election

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%4%

Senator Jon Ossoff tamped down presidential speculation by stating he has 'zero interest' in running for president in 2028, focusing instead on his upcoming Senate race.

Jon Ossoff's nomination chances improve with increased visibility and support

Jon Ossoff rises to 8%3%

Jon Ossoff's market price increased from 5% to 8% in early April 2026, indicating growing recognition and support within the Democratic Party as the 2028 nomination race develops.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State speech, criticizes Trump administration

Newsom's speech reaffirmed his leadership and national profile, supporting his market price stability and potential 2028 presidential bid.

Pete Buttigieg hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention

Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%

Buttigieg's public hint at a 2028 presidential run during a high-profile event sparked enthusiasm and speculation, briefly boosting his market price.

Gavin Newsom's podcast 'This Is Gavin Newsom' gains popularity

Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%

Newsom's podcast, featuring political discussions and notable guests, increased his national profile and engagement with voters, supporting a price rise to around 26%.

Andy Beshear’s low‑key campaign fails to gain traction in national polls

Andy Beshear dips to 2%3%

Beshear’s lack of national visibility and poor poll numbers led to a continued decline in his market price, reflecting limited expectations for a 2028 bid.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State speech

Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%

Newsom's speech emphasized California as a model against federal overreach and highlighted his progressive record, reinforcing his stature as a 2028 presidential contender and supporting a moderate rise in his market price.

Kamala Harris Signals Possible 2028 Presidential Run at NAN Convention

Kamala Harris rises to 6%2%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris stated she is strongly considering a 2028 presidential run during an interview with Rev. Al Sharpton, sparking fresh speculation and market movement.

Newsom proposes $200 million instant electric vehicle rebate plan

Gavin Newsom dips to 26%1%

Newsom unveiled a plan for instant EV rebates requiring automaker matching funds, aiming to boost the electric car market and counter federal incentive cuts, enhancing his policy profile.

Newsom signs executive order on AI harm and government contract rules

Newsom's proactive AI policy enhanced his image as a forward-thinking leader, positively impacting his market position.

Kamala Harris tours Southern states amid 2028 presidential speculation

Kamala Harris rises to 9%3%

Kamala Harris toured key Southern states including South Carolina, Georgia, and North Carolina, engaging in fundraising and community events, which was widely interpreted as groundwork for a potential 2028 presidential campaign.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear attacks VP Vance, fuels 2028 speculation

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

During a speech in South Carolina, Beshear criticized Vice President JD Vance and hinted at a 2028 bid, boosting his market price from 2 % to 3 % as the field narrowed.

Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race amid sexual assault allegations

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%

Swalwell’s exit removed a major competitor, allowing remaining candidates to consolidate support; the market prices for other front‑runners stabilized, with Newsom’s price edging up slightly to 24% by mid‑May.

Rahm Emanuel proposes ban on federal employees betting on prediction markets

Emanuel's proposal to ban federal employees from betting on prediction markets drew attention to his political activity and potential 2028 ambitions, slightly influencing his market perception.

Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats

The court’s decision secured a Democratic‑leaning map, improving the overall outlook for Democratic candidates in California and giving a modest lift to Newsom’s perceived electability.

Kamala Harris announces she will not run for 2028 Democratic nomination

Kamala Harris dips to 6%3%

Harris publicly confirmed she will not seek the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, removing her from contention and causing her market price to fall from 9% to 6% as traders adjusted expectations.

Andy Beshear’s campaign stalls amid low voter awareness

Beshear’s low‑profile campaign failed to gain traction, keeping his market price flat at 3% after a brief rise earlier in the year.

Josh Shapiro declines to discuss 2028 presidential run on Bill Maher show

Shapiro firmly refused to engage in speculation about a 2028 presidential bid during a TV interview, reflecting his cautious approach and contributing to his low market price around 5%.

Gavin Newsom sparks controversy hosting conservative figures on podcast

Gavin Newsom dips to 27%3%

Newsom's podcast featuring right-wing guests and his comments on transgender athletes caused backlash within the Democratic Party, potentially damaging his presidential prospects and causing market volatility.

UC Berkeley poll shows Gavin Newsom leading over Kamala Harris in 2028 primary

Gavin Newsom rises to 27%3%

A March 2026 UC Berkeley poll showed Gavin Newsom with 28% support among California Democratic primary voters, double that of Kamala Harris at 14%, reinforcing Newsom's frontrunner status in the 2028 nomination race.

Georgia sets March 10 election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress

The special election in Georgia following Greene's resignation may have influenced local political dynamics, indirectly affecting Jon Ossoff's market price as a prominent Georgia Democrat.

Georgia sets special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene

Jon Ossoff plunges to 6%44%

The special election to replace Greene could impact the political landscape and influence Democratic prospects, indirectly affecting candidates like Jon Ossoff in the 2028 nomination market.

Josh Shapiro launches 2026 reelection campaign amid 2028 speculation

Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro officially launched his 2026 reelection campaign, a move seen as a stepping stone for a potential 2028 presidential run, which helped stabilize and slightly increase his market odds.

Pete Buttigieg’s campaign announces withdrawal from 2028 race

Pete Buttigieg drops to 4%8%

Buttigieg’s exit removed him from contention, causing his market price to collapse to near‑zero as investors reallocated support to remaining candidates.

Gavin Newsom's New Hampshire book tour stop sparks 2028 presidential speculation

Newsom's presentation of his new book in New Hampshire, a key early primary state, increased buzz about his potential 2028 presidential run and reinforced his stature as a leading contender.

Gavin Newsom book tour stop in New Hampshire sparks 2028 speculation

Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%

Newsom's visit to New Hampshire for his book tour, a key early primary state, generated buzz about his national ambitions and increased speculation about his 2028 presidential run, supporting his market position.

Mark Kelly signals serious consideration of 2028 presidential run

Mark Kelly rises to 3%1%

Kelly stated he has thought about running for president but has not made a decision, raising his profile and market interest amid his fundraising success and opposition to Trump.

Gavin Newsom visits New Hampshire on book tour, fueling 2028 speculation

Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%

Newsom's stop in New Hampshire, a key early primary state, for his book tour generated buzz about his national ambitions and increased speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, supporting his market position around 25%.

James Talarico announces 2026 Texas Senate candidacy

James Talarico rises to 2%1%

James Talarico announced his candidacy for the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas, giving the low‑probability candidate a brief media bump that raised his price from 1 % to 2 %.

James Talarico wins Texas Democratic Senate primary

James Talarico rises to 2%1%

Talarico's primary victory in Texas elevated his profile as a rising Democratic star and potential 2028 contender, though his market price remains low due to the uphill general election battle.

Newsom’s State of the State speech emphasizes California as a national model

Gavin Newsom dips to 25%4%

The high‑visibility address reinforced Newsom’s national profile, stabilizing his price at 25% after a brief dip.

James Talarico wins Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Texas

James Talarico rises to 2%1%

James Talarico's primary victory in Texas increased his visibility and viability as a Democratic candidate, reflected in a rise in his market price.

Pete Buttigieg delivers Kenner Lecture on cultural understanding at Lehigh University

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg gave a prominent lecture on leadership and cultural understanding, maintaining his public profile and supporting his market position.

Josh Shapiro's rising profile linked to Philadelphia's 2028 DNC bid

Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%

Philadelphia's bid to host the 2028 Democratic National Convention fueled speculation about Shapiro accepting the nomination in his home state, stabilizing and slightly increasing his market odds.

James Talarico wins Texas Democratic Senate primary, boosting 2028 profile

James Talarico rises to 2%1%

James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination for the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas, raising his national profile and market odds slightly as a potential 2028 presidential contender due to his fundraising and campaign momentum.

Jon Ossoff’s campaign receives major fundraising boost

A sizable infusion of cash into Ossoff’s campaign shifted attention away from Newsom, contributing to a modest price decline.

Newsom touts reduction in EBT theft amid Trump administration scrutiny

Gavin Newsom dips to 27%1%

Newsom highlighted California’s success in reducing public benefit theft, countering Trump administration criticisms and reinforcing his governance credentials.

Josh Shapiro launches 2026 re-election campaign with 2028 ambitions

Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%

Shapiro's re-election bid in Pennsylvania is seen as a strategic move to build a winning narrative and national profile for a potential 2028 presidential run.

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom

Gavin Newsom dips to 25%3%

Mahan's entry into the governor's race as a Newsom critic highlighted challenges Newsom faces within his party, contributing to market volatility for Newsom's nomination chances.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez faces criticism over immigration and healthcare stances

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 9%3%

Ocasio-Cortez's vocal criticism of immigration enforcement and healthcare cuts drew mixed reactions, leading to a decline in her nomination market price as some Democrats questioned her electability.

Newsom’s final State of the State speech defends record and hints at 2028 run

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%2%

In his last State of the State address, Newsom defended his record and explicitly mentioned eyeing a 2028 presidential bid, which helped stabilize his price at 24% after a brief dip.

Actors Awards 2026 nominees announced, highlighting films like 'One Battle After Another'

The announcement of major award nominees can influence cultural narratives and candidate endorsements, indirectly affecting market sentiment for candidates like Rahm Emanuel and Pete Buttigieg who have political ties to entertainment sectors.

Emerson poll shows Gavin Newsom leads Democratic primary field

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

An Emerson College poll placed Newsom at 20% support among Democratic likely primary voters, reinforcing his position as the leading candidate and influencing market prices.

Gavin Newsom leads 2028 Democratic nomination market at 27.2%

Market data shows Gavin Newsom as the leading candidate with a 27.2% implied probability, reflecting collective trader belief in his chances based on his political activities and public profile.

Trump jokes Newsom “just dropped out” of 2028 race on Truth Social

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%

Trump’s Truth‑Social post proclaiming that Newsom had “dropped out” of the race sparked a brief sell‑off on Newsom’s contract, pulling the price from 27 % on 23 Feb to 24 % on 24 Feb, the lowest level in the window.

Gavin Newsom says he is 'punching a bully back' in social media attacks on Trump

Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%5%

Newsom's combative social media strategy against Donald Trump raised his national profile and energized Democratic voters, contributing to a modest increase in his market odds and reinforcing his frontrunner status.

Gavin Newsom visits South Carolina on early primary tour

Gavin Newsom rises to 30%2%

Newsom's visit to South Carolina, an early primary state, was part of a strategic effort to build support and increase his profile among Democratic voters, positively influencing his market odds.

Gavin Newsom returns to South Carolina for early primary campaigning

Gavin Newsom rises to 26%1%

Newsom's visit to South Carolina, an early primary state, demonstrated his active campaign efforts and boosted his visibility among Democratic voters, supporting his frontrunner status.

Donald Trump mocks Gavin Newsom's 2028 presidential prospects

Gavin Newsom rises to 35%3%

Trump's public mockery of Newsom's potential candidacy created media buzz and may have reinforced Newsom's image as a strong opponent, causing minor price fluctuations around 32-35%.

Andy Beshear openly considers 2028 presidential run in CNN interview

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

Beshear acknowledged considering a presidential run after finishing his current term, boosting his profile and market price from 2% to 3%.

Andy Beshear considers 2028 presidential run after re-election

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

Beshear, with high approval ratings and leadership roles, publicly acknowledged considering a presidential run after finishing his term as Kentucky governor, supporting a modest rise in his market odds.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear signals consideration of 2028 presidential run

Beshear publicly indicated he is considering a presidential bid after finishing his governorship, raising his market price and national profile.

Andy Beshear acknowledges considering 2028 presidential run

Andy Beshear plunges to 2%48%

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear publicly acknowledged considering a presidential run after finishing his term, highlighting his high approval ratings and appeal as a moderate Democrat in a red state, which influenced market odds.

Andy Beshear publicly considers 2028 presidential run

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear acknowledged considering a presidential run after finishing his current term, which contributed to a rise in his market price from 2% to 3%.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear considers 2028 presidential run

Andy Beshear rises to 4%1%

Beshear publicly addressed speculation about a possible 2028 presidential bid, which increased his visibility and modestly affected his market odds.

Gavin Newsom opposes California billionaire tax proposal, sparking intra-party debate

Gavin Newsom drops to 28%5%

Newsom publicly opposed a proposed hefty tax on billionaires in California, positioning himself against progressive elements like Bernie Sanders and affecting his market perception.

Andy Beshear says he is considering 2028 presidential run

Beshear publicly addressed speculation about a presidential run, stating he will consider it after finishing his current job, which caused a modest market interest increase.

Beshear says he’s considering presidential run

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

Kentucky Governor Beshear told CNN’s Situation Room that he’s “considering” a 2028 presidential bid after his re‑election, lifting his price from 2 % to 3 % over the following month.

Andy Beshear says he is considering 2028 presidential run

Beshear publicly acknowledged considering a presidential run after finishing his term as governor, emphasizing the need to heal the country and unite voters, which contributed to early market interest.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear says he’s comfortable being named a 2028 contender

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

Beshear told reporters on a national news program that he was "comfortable" being named a potential 2028 contender, keeping his odds low but steady at around 3 % throughout the window.

Jon Ossoff delivers viral anti-Trump speech sparking 2028 front-runner predictions

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%2%

Ossoff's fiery speech at Big Bethel A.M.E. Church went viral, leading to increased speculation about his 2028 prospects and a brief price spike from 4% to 6%.

Newsom faces $2.9 billion California budget deficit in final gubernatorial year

Gavin Newsom drops to 27%7%

The budget shortfall constrained Newsom's ability to advance new programs, affecting perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability.

California proposal for billionaire tax divides Democrats, Newsom opposes

Gavin Newsom dips to 34%3%

A proposed hefty tax on billionaires in California created a rift within the Democratic Party, with progressive figures like Bernie Sanders supporting it and Newsom opposing. This division highlighted ideological splits that may have influenced market perceptions of Newsom's electability.

Kamala Harris drops out of 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 25%1%

Harris’s decision to focus on other political goals removed a potential rival for Newsom, slightly improving his odds.

Nancy Pelosi publicly endorses Gavin Newsom's 2028 presidential run

Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%5%

Pelosi's endorsement as a prominent Democratic figure boosted Newsom's credibility and market probability, contributing to a rise from 27% to 32%.

Bernie Sanders campaigns for California billionaire tax opposed by Newsom

Gavin Newsom drops to 28%6%

Sanders supported a tax on billionaires in California, which Newsom opposed, creating intra-party tension and possibly affecting Newsom’s market position negatively.

Gavin Newsom Attends Munich Security Conference to Bolster National Profile

Gavin Newsom drops to 27%5%

Governor Gavin Newsom attended the Munich Security Conference, maintaining his position as the leading 2028 Democratic contender in prediction markets.

Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Represent Anti-Trump Opposition at Munich Security Conference

Gavin Newsom dips to 28%4%

California Governor Gavin Newsom and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez made high-profile appearances at the Munich Security Conference, asserting themselves as key leaders of the Democratic opposition.

Gavin Newsom announces $2.9 billion budget deficit for final year

Gavin Newsom drops to 27%8%

The disclosed deficit raised concerns about Newsom’s fiscal management, prompting a price correction from 35% to 27% as investors reassessed his electability.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Elevates International Profile at Munich Security Conference

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's high-profile appearance at the Munich Security Conference sharpened speculation about her long-term political ambitions, causing her odds to rise on prediction markets.

Prediction markets show Gavin Newsom leading 2028 Democratic nominee race with 30% odds

Gavin Newsom jumps to 30%10%

Market activity surged with Newsom consolidating as the frontrunner due to his national profile and fundraising, reflecting growing investor confidence in his nomination chances.

Gavin Newsom Dominates Early 2028 Prediction Markets with 30% Odds

As prediction market volume surged past $45 million, Gavin Newsom established a dominant lead over other potential 2028 Democratic contenders.