Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress create the primary structural barrier to removal before 2027, as impeachment requires a House majority followed by a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction. A September 15, 2026, House vote to table Democratic articles of impeachment over immigration enforcement actions passed 232-147, with party leaders largely declining to advance the measure amid midterm positioning. No sustained 25th Amendment process or resignation signals have emerged despite scattered commentary on fitness or policy disputes. Traders reflect this institutional reality in the 95.5% implied probability for Trump remaining in office through year-end, while noting narrow windows for change such as sudden health developments, a major scandal prompting departure, or accelerated proceedings if midterms alter House control before January 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
5% chance
$11,854,221 Vol.
$11,854,221 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
5% chance
$11,854,221 Vol.
$11,854,221 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress create the primary structural barrier to removal before 2027, as impeachment requires a House majority followed by a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction. A September 15, 2026, House vote to table Democratic articles of impeachment over immigration enforcement actions passed 232-147, with party leaders largely declining to advance the measure amid midterm positioning. No sustained 25th Amendment process or resignation signals have emerged despite scattered commentary on fitness or policy disputes. Traders reflect this institutional reality in the 95.5% implied probability for Trump remaining in office through year-end, while noting narrow windows for change such as sudden health developments, a major scandal prompting departure, or accelerated proceedings if midterms alter House control before January 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,854,221Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress create the primary structural barrier to removal before 2027, as impeachment requires a House majority followed by a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction. A September 15, 2026, House vote to table Democratic articles of impeachment over immigration enforcement actions passed 232-147, with party leaders largely declining to advance the measure amid midterm positioning. No sustained 25th Amendment process or resignation signals have emerged despite scattered commentary on fitness or policy disputes. Traders reflect this institutional reality in the 95.5% implied probability for Trump remaining in office through year-end, while noting narrow windows for change such as sudden health developments, a major scandal prompting departure, or accelerated proceedings if midterms alter House control before January 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress create the primary structural barrier to removal before 2027, as impeachment requires a House majority followed by a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction. A September 15, 2026, House vote to table Democratic articles of impeachment over immigration enforcement actions passed 232-147, with party leaders largely declining to advance the measure amid midterm positioning. No sustained 25th Amendment process or resignation signals have emerged despite scattered commentary on fitness or policy disputes. Traders reflect this institutional reality in the 95.5% implied probability for Trump remaining in office through year-end, while noting narrow windows for change such as sudden health developments, a major scandal prompting departure, or accelerated proceedings if midterms alter House control before January 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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