US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets began February 28, 2026, followed by naval blockades, limited strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, and retaliatory exchanges into June, but operations have remained air and naval focused without US ground forces establishing territorial control. Recent diplomatic momentum includes high-level talks, a temporary ceasefire framework, and President Trump’s statements on June 12 that a broader nuclear and security agreement has advanced to senior Iranian leadership approval, with a potential signing ceremony imminent. These developments, alongside historical reluctance for large-scale occupation of Iran, underpin trader consensus that no invasion will occur before 2027. Scheduled negotiations and de-escalation signals continue to shape near-term probabilities.