**Ongoing diplomatic efforts and a fragile ceasefire have kept the probability of a U.S. ground invasion of Iran low through late 2026.** Following the February 28, 2026, launch of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and a subsequent naval blockade during the 2026 Iran war, the sides agreed to a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire in April that has been extended amid active talks. As of mid-June 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials have signaled proximity to a framework agreement covering nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and de-escalation terms, with reports of agreed-upon text and potential signing in the coming days. Recent flare-ups, including additional U.S. strikes and Iranian drone activity near the Strait of Hormuz, prompted renewed U.S. pressure but also accelerated mediation rather than escalation to ground operations. President Trump has repeatedly emphasized air and naval measures alongside diplomacy, while analysts note substantial logistical, escalation, and domestic political barriers to any sustained U.S. invasion force aimed at territorial control. Trader consensus at 84% for “No” reflects these de-escalation signals and the absence of preparations or statements indicating ground commitments before the year-end deadline.