Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy, including a preliminary framework agreement signed June 15, 2026, and scheduled formal signing on June 19, has shifted focus toward ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and addressing nuclear issues through further talks during a 60-day ceasefire extension. This follows months of airstrikes, missile exchanges, and naval blockades that began in late February but avoided large-scale U.S. ground operations. Trader consensus reflected in the 87.5% “No” probability aligns with the absence of confirmed invasion plans, emphasis on negotiated settlements over regime-change missions, and institutional barriers to sustained occupation of Iranian territory. Ongoing nuclear and sanctions discussions could still influence outcomes before the 2027 deadline.