Ongoing U.S.-Iran exchanges of limited strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, combined with renewed mediation by Qatar and Oman, continue to shape market pricing. As of mid-September 2026, Washington maintains air and naval pressure alongside expanded sanctions while exploring diplomatic off-ramps, with President Trump publicly weighing further strikes, economic measures, or a deal. Iranian statements signal readiness for retaliation but emphasize conditions for renewed talks, including eased naval restrictions. Analysts note that large-scale ground operations would require substantial troop commitments and face significant logistical and political barriers, consistent with the current pattern of targeted operations rather than occupation. Scheduled diplomatic contacts around the UN General Assembly and the absence of formal invasion authorizations support the 85.5% implied probability traders assign to no U.S. invasion before 2027.