**Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, including U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that began in late February 2026 and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have escalated into a broader conflict involving missile exchanges and naval tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, yet U.S. operations have remained limited to air and naval strikes without deployment of large-scale ground forces.** Analysts note that occupying Iran would require hundreds of thousands of troops given its size and terrain, a step the current administration has not signaled. Recent developments include a fragile April ceasefire, intermittent U.S. strikes into June, and active mediation yielding reported progress toward a peace framework, with both sides indicating an agreement is closer than before. These factors, alongside the prohibitive costs and risks of full invasion, underpin trader consensus against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027.