**Recent US-Iran military operations and the shift toward diplomacy explain the 88.5% trader consensus against a US invasion before 2027.** In late February 2026, the United States and Israel launched extensive airstrikes on Iranian missile, air defense, and nuclear-related sites, along with leadership targets, initiating weeks of exchanges that included Iranian missile and drone responses, a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. These actions relied primarily on air and naval power rather than large-scale ground forces, consistent with assessments that a full invasion of Iran would require hundreds of thousands of troops and carry prohibitive risks given the country’s size and terrain. By early June 2026, Pakistani-mediated talks produced a reported framework agreement and memorandum of understanding covering a ceasefire, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and further negotiations on nuclear issues during a 60-day period. As of mid-June, officials from both sides signaled that the text was largely agreed, with signing preparations underway. This de-escalation trajectory, absent any confirmed mobilization or authorization for a ground invasion, underpins the current market pricing. Traders appear to view sustained diplomatic momentum as the dominant near-term path, though unresolved issues around enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and regional ceasefires (including Lebanon) could still influence developments through the end of 2026.