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icon for Os EUA vão invadir o Irã antes de 2027?

Os EUA vão invadir o Irã antes de 2027?

icon for Os EUA vão invadir o Irã antes de 2027?

Os EUA vão invadir o Irã antes de 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

16% chance
Polymarket

$37,080,194 Vol.

Sim

16% chance
Polymarket

$37,080,194 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets began February 28, 2026, followed by naval blockades, limited strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, and retaliatory exchanges into June, but operations have remained air and naval focused without US ground forces establishing territorial control. Recent diplomatic momentum includes high-level talks, a temporary ceasefire framework, and President Trump’s statements on June 12 that a broader nuclear and security agreement has advanced to senior Iranian leadership approval, with a potential signing ceremony imminent. These developments, alongside historical reluctance for large-scale occupation of Iran, underpin trader consensus that no invasion will occur before 2027. Scheduled negotiations and de-escalation signals continue to shape near-term probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$37,080,194
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets began February 28, 2026, followed by naval blockades, limited strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, and retaliatory exchanges into June, but operations have remained air and naval focused without US ground forces establishing territorial control. Recent diplomatic momentum includes high-level talks, a temporary ceasefire framework, and President Trump’s statements on June 12 that a broader nuclear and security agreement has advanced to senior Iranian leadership approval, with a potential signing ceremony imminent. These developments, alongside historical reluctance for large-scale occupation of Iran, underpin trader consensus that no invasion will occur before 2027. Scheduled negotiations and de-escalation signals continue to shape near-term probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$37,083,790
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Os EUA vão invadir o Irã antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Os EUA vão invadir o Irã antes de 2027?" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Os EUA vão invadir o Irã antes de 2027?" has generated $37.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Os EUA vão invadir o Irã antes de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Os EUA vão invadir o Irã antes de 2027?" is "Os EUA vão invadir o Irã antes de 2027?" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Os EUA vão invadir o Irã antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.