Recent progress toward a formal peace agreement has reinforced trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. Following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes and a naval blockade that began in February 2026, Pakistan-brokered talks produced a conditional ceasefire in April, later extended, with a memorandum of understanding finalized around June 14 that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, partial sanctions relief, and renewed nuclear negotiations. President Trump has signaled preference for diplomacy over escalation while maintaining pressure, consistent with prior maximum-pressure policies and avoidance of large-scale troop commitments. These developments, alongside the absence of any announced ground operations despite earlier threats, underpin the 88.5% implied probability for “No,” though resolution of the nuclear timeline or renewed hostilities could still alter trajectories before December 31, 2026.