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icon for A liderança do Irão muda por...?
Política·Mojtaba

A liderança do Irão muda por...?

icon for A liderança do Irão muda por...?
Política·Mojtaba

A liderança do Irão muda por...?

$24,011,018 Vol.

31 ago 2026
Polymarket

$24,011,018 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de agosto

$1,453,947 Vol.

<1%

30 de setembro

$480,579 Vol.

3%

31 de outubro

$25,718 Vol.

7%

30 de novembro

$18,737 Vol.

10%

31 de dezembro

$4,096,227 Vol.

16%

30 de junho de 2027

$248,087 Vol.

25%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in early March. This rapid transition consolidated influence among hardline clerical and IRGC elements while sidelining reformist figures, amid ongoing regional conflict and sanctions pressure. Mojtaba has maintained a low public profile due to reported injuries and security concerns, prompting health speculation that President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly refuted following a lengthy August meeting. Recent developments show the regime functioning under collective institutional leadership with heightened IRGC involvement in decision-making. Traders monitoring this market focus on signals of regime stability, potential internal challenges, or external escalations that could prompt further leadership shifts within specific resolution windows.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,011,018
Data de Término
1 jul 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in early March. This rapid transition consolidated influence among hardline clerical and IRGC elements while sidelining reformist figures, amid ongoing regional conflict and sanctions pressure. Mojtaba has maintained a low public profile due to reported injuries and security concerns, prompting health speculation that President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly refuted following a lengthy August meeting. Recent developments show the regime functioning under collective institutional leadership with heightened IRGC involvement in decision-making. Traders monitoring this market focus on signals of regime stability, potential internal challenges, or external escalations that could prompt further leadership shifts within specific resolution windows.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,011,018
Data de Término
1 jul 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"A liderança do Irão muda por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 de junho de 2027" at 25%, followed by "31 de dezembro" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A liderança do Irão muda por...?" has generated $24 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A liderança do Irão muda por...?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "A liderança do Irão muda por...?" is "30 de junho de 2027" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 de dezembro" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "A liderança do Irão muda por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.