Traders assign a 96% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the compressed timeframe and absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization. Recent months show continued gray-zone pressure through PLA live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and routine air and naval activity, alongside Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang exercises emphasizing reservist integration and supply resilience. Beijing’s approach favors sustained coercion short of war, including diplomatic outreach to Taiwan’s opposition ahead of future elections. Large-scale invasion preparations typically require visible logistics, naval deployments, and force posture shifts spanning many months, none of which have materialized. While a sudden miscalculation or unforeseen escalation remains possible in principle, the current pattern of events and structural constraints continue to support the market consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA China invadirá Taiwan até o final de 2026?
A China invadirá Taiwan até o final de 2026?
Sim
$39,740,905 Vol.
$39,740,905 Vol.
Sim
$39,740,905 Vol.
$39,740,905 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the compressed timeframe and absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization. Recent months show continued gray-zone pressure through PLA live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and routine air and naval activity, alongside Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang exercises emphasizing reservist integration and supply resilience. Beijing’s approach favors sustained coercion short of war, including diplomatic outreach to Taiwan’s opposition ahead of future elections. Large-scale invasion preparations typically require visible logistics, naval deployments, and force posture shifts spanning many months, none of which have materialized. While a sudden miscalculation or unforeseen escalation remains possible in principle, the current pattern of events and structural constraints continue to support the market consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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