**Trader consensus clusters around 8 or 9 countries for U.S. military actions in 2026, with 8 at 34% and 9 at 29.3%.** This reflects confirmed operations in Venezuela (January raid capturing Maduro), Iran (major airstrikes and ongoing exchanges since late February), plus counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, Nigeria, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen targeting ISIS, Houthis, and related groups. By mid-June, these have produced roughly seven documented theaters. The narrow spread between the top two outcomes stems from uncertainty over whether the Iran conflict and its regional spillovers will add one more distinct country by year-end or remain contained amid fragile ceasefires and blockade enforcement. Ongoing U.S. posture in the Middle East, potential proxy responses, and any new counter-narcotics or African operations could push the total to nine, while successful de-escalation or focus on existing fronts could hold the count at eight. Late-year developments such as expanded strikes, new diplomatic breakdowns, or shifts in African or Latin American theaters remain the main variables that could separate the probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoUS launches retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets after drone attack on commercial ship
9 jumps to 36%12%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to an Iranian drone attack on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. This marked a significant escalation and reaffirmed US military action on Iranian soil.
US conducts retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites
8 jumps to 35%8%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the US Central Command conducted military strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites. This further confirmed ongoing US military action in Iran in 2026.
US launches retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on cargo ship
9 jumps to 36%8%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, 2026, the US conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone storage, and radar sites near the Strait and on Qeshm Island, marking the latest US military action on Iranian soil in 2026.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial vessel
9 jumps to 34%9%
The US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz on June 26, 2026, in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship. This confirmed continued US military action on Iranian soil during 2026, reinforcing market expectations for strikes in Iran only.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial vessel
8 jumps to 15%10%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz, retaliating for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship. This was the third such strike in three weeks, confirming US military action limited to Iran.
US Africa Command conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
On June 19, 2026, US Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab militants in Somalia in coordination with the Somali government. This continued the US campaign against Islamist militants in East Africa.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian targets after missile and drone attacks
12 dips to 3%2%
On June 3, 2026, the US military carried out strikes against Iranian military facilities on Qeshm Island in response to Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and other Gulf countries. This escalation reinforced the US military presence and strike activity in multiple countries in the region.
US bombs Iranian military sites and downs missiles fired at troops in Kuwait
The US bombed radar and drone sites in Iran after Tehran shot down an American drone. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on US troops in Kuwait, which were intercepted. This event confirmed ongoing US strikes on Iranian soil only.
US conducts new strikes on Iranian military site and drones near Strait of Hormuz
9 rises to 11%4%
On May 27, 2026, the US military carried out strikes on an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas and shot down Iranian attack drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirming ongoing US military action solely on Iranian territory.
US and Nigerian forces launch joint military operation with airstrikes against ISWAP in Nigeria
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria began a joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram in northeastern Nigeria, including special forces raids and multiple rounds of airstrikes. This operation killed senior ISWAP leaders and intensified US military involvement in Nigeria.
US and Nigeria begin joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria launched joint military operations including airstrikes against Islamic State West Africa Province and Boko Haram militants in northeastern Nigeria, marking US military action on Nigerian soil.
US strikes Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island
In response to missile, drone, and boat attacks on US destroyers, the US conducted strikes on Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. This reinforced the market's view that US military action was confined to Iran.
US launches missile and drone strikes on Iranian military facilities
10 rises to 19%4%
The US military launched strikes on Iranian military sites responsible for attacks on US forces, escalating tensions and confirming US military action on Iranian soil. This event influenced market prices by increasing the perceived number of countries targeted by US strikes.
US military strikes Iranian military facilities near Strait of Hormuz
8 rises to 27%4%
US forces conducted strikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites, command and control locations, and intelligence nodes near the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iranian attacks on US warships. This confirmed Iran as a country targeted by US military strikes in 2026.
US disables Iranian oil tankers amid renewed missile and drone attacks in Gulf
12 dips to 3%2%
The US Central Command disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to reach Iranian ports, enforcing a naval blockade. This action coincided with fresh missile and drone attacks reported by the UAE, indicating ongoing US military operations in the Gulf region and sustaining market expectations for strikes in multiple Middle Eastern countries.
US conducts multiple airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq
Since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war, the US has conducted numerous airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, including the Popular Mobilization Forces. These strikes have killed dozens of militia members and targeted multiple bases across Iraq.
Trump administration expands counterterrorism operations including strikes in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia
In early 2026, the Trump administration approved the expansion of counterterrorism operations that included bombing targets in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia, reflecting a broader military engagement across multiple countries.
Drone strikes near US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait amid escalating conflict
12 dips to 2%3%
Drone activity targeted areas near US diplomatic compounds in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, leading to heightened security alerts and embassy closures. This expansion of conflict zones to include diplomatic sites underscored the widening scope of US military involvement in the region.
US conducts strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 drone shootdown
12 dips to 2%3%
Following the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone, the US military launched strikes on Iranian radar and drone command sites on Qeshm Island and Goruk. This action escalated hostilities and was part of ongoing US military operations against Iran, influencing market prices for strikes in the Middle East.
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan
12 dips to 2%3%
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, marking a sharp escalation and retaliation for US strikes. These attacks increased regional tensions and the likelihood of further US military responses in multiple countries.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to attacks
9 jumps to 8%5%
Following the initial strikes, the US continued targeting Iranian missile and drone storage locations and radar sites, responding to Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases and allies in the region. This sustained campaign confirmed ongoing US military action on Iranian soil.
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
8 drops to 0%5%
The US intensified its bombing campaign against Iranian military sites using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, reinforcing the focus on Iran and limiting expectations of strikes in other countries.
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
9 drops to 7%7%
The US intensified its air campaign against Iran using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, demonstrating sustained military action exclusively against Iranian targets in early March 2026.
US and Israel launch massive coordinated strikes on Iranian military targets
12 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and others. This marked a major escalation and set the stage for retaliatory strikes and increased US military activity in the region, significantly impacting market expectations for US strikes in multiple countries.
US and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted a massive joint airstrike campaign targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, including the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader. This major military action against Iran set the tone for the conflict and influenced market expectations about US military engagements in 2026.
US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran targeting military and nuclear sites
9 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a large-scale airstrike campaign against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and command centers. This marked the start of Operation Epic Fury and significantly escalated US military action in the region, increasing the count of countries involved in US strikes to include Iran.
US and Israeli forces launch massive strikes on Iranian military targets
On February 28, 2026, US and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This included strikes on Iranian military and government sites, escalating the conflict in the Middle East.
US and Israel launch coordinated military strikes on Iran
On February 27-28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted missile and drone strikes on Iranian military targets as part of Operation Epic Fury, marking the start of intensified military action against Iran. This event increased market expectations of US strikes on Iranian soil, influencing the market towards lower numbers of countries targeted.
US conducts airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Somalia
On February 1, 2026, US forces carried out airstrikes targeting Islamic State-affiliated militants in Somalia, marking US military action on Somali soil as part of counterterrorism operations.
US conducts airstrike targeting ISIS in Somalia
8 jumps to 23%7%
In coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, the US Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia, marking Somalia as another country where the US conducted military strikes in 2026.
Putin offers to mediate Middle East tensions after calls with Israel and Iran
7 drops to 39%7%
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Israeli and Iranian leaders, pitching Russia as a mediator amid regional tensions and U.S. threats of strikes on Iran. This diplomatic move suggested a de-escalation in U.S. military action in the Middle East, reducing market expectations for U.S. strikes on multiple countries.
US launches retaliatory strikes against ISIS in Syria after deadly ambush
In response to an ambush killing US personnel, the US launched airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, continuing military operations in the country.
US conducts airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria
8 jumps to 16%11%
The US and Jordan launched multiple airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria, utilizing precision munitions to destroy ISIS infrastructure. This confirmed Syria as a country where the US conducted military strikes in 2026.
US and Jordanian forces conduct second wave of airstrikes on ISIS positions in Syria
On January 10, 2026, US and Jordanian forces launched a second wave of airstrikes on dozens of ISIS positions near Deir ez-Zor, Syria, using over 90 munitions. This was part of an ongoing campaign against ISIS in Syria and Iraq following a December ambush that killed two US soldiers.
US launches airstrikes on militant camps in Nigeria's Sokoto state
9 rises to 13%3%
The US military conducted airstrikes targeting Lakurawa militant camps in northwestern Nigeria, marking a direct military action on Nigerian soil. This event increased the likelihood of the US conducting strikes in Nigeria, affecting the market's assessment of the number of countries targeted.
US launches military strike in Venezuela, capturing President Maduro
8 plunges to 5%42%
The US launched a large-scale military strike in Venezuela, capturing incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. This operation involved airstrikes targeting military infrastructure and was a significant escalation in US military actions in 2026, confirming Venezuela as a country where the US conducted military strikes.
US launches military operation extracting Maduro from Venezuela
On January 3, 2026, the US launched a military operation in Venezuela that extracted President Maduro and his wife from Caracas, marking a significant US military action in South America.
US conducts large-scale military strike in Venezuela, captures Maduro
7 drops to 39%7%
The US launched a major military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, marking a direct US military action on Venezuelan soil. This event confirmed at least one country where the US initiated military strikes in 2026, significantly impacting market probabilities.
US Africa Command launches airstrikes in Nigeria targeting Islamic State militants
9 plunges to 3%44%
On Christmas night 2025, the US Africa Command conducted airstrikes in Sokoto State, Nigeria, targeting Islamic State terrorists. This marked the first American combat action inside Nigeria and was acknowledged as a significant escalation in US military involvement there.
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