US and Israeli strikes in 2025-2026, including Operation Midnight Hammer, severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure at sites like Natanz, delaying any potential weaponization by years according to IAEA assessments and US intelligence reports released in March 2026. The latest IAEA February report notes Iran's pre-strike stockpile of about 440kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade but insufficient for confirmed testing without further steps—much of which may have been relocated underground, with no radiation anomalies detected post-strikes. Ongoing indirect negotiations, where Iran proposed a five-year enrichment suspension rejected by the Trump administration, alongside sustained sanctions and military pressure, reinforce trader consensus at 90.5% for "No," viewing a detectable nuclear test before 2027 as improbable amid de-escalation signals and absent evidence of explosive testing at facilities like Taleghan 2. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or covert advances could shift odds, but structural barriers remain high.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Teste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Sim
$180,386 Vol.
$180,386 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$180,386 Vol.
$180,386 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli strikes in 2025-2026, including Operation Midnight Hammer, severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure at sites like Natanz, delaying any potential weaponization by years according to IAEA assessments and US intelligence reports released in March 2026. The latest IAEA February report notes Iran's pre-strike stockpile of about 440kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade but insufficient for confirmed testing without further steps—much of which may have been relocated underground, with no radiation anomalies detected post-strikes. Ongoing indirect negotiations, where Iran proposed a five-year enrichment suspension rejected by the Trump administration, alongside sustained sanctions and military pressure, reinforce trader consensus at 90.5% for "No," viewing a detectable nuclear test before 2027 as improbable amid de-escalation signals and absent evidence of explosive testing at facilities like Taleghan 2. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or covert advances could shift odds, but structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$180,386Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli strikes in 2025-2026, including Operation Midnight Hammer, severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure at sites like Natanz, delaying any potential weaponization by years according to IAEA assessments and US intelligence reports released in March 2026. The latest IAEA February report notes Iran's pre-strike stockpile of about 440kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade but insufficient for confirmed testing without further steps—much of which may have been relocated underground, with no radiation anomalies detected post-strikes. Ongoing indirect negotiations, where Iran proposed a five-year enrichment suspension rejected by the Trump administration, alongside sustained sanctions and military pressure, reinforce trader consensus at 90.5% for "No," viewing a detectable nuclear test before 2027 as improbable amid de-escalation signals and absent evidence of explosive testing at facilities like Taleghan 2. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or covert advances could shift odds, but structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$180,386Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli strikes in 2025-2026, including Operation Midnight Hammer, severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure at sites like Natanz, delaying any potential weaponization by years according to IAEA assessments and US intelligence reports released in March 2026. The latest IAEA February report notes Iran's pre-strike stockpile of about 440kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade but insufficient for confirmed testing without further steps—much of which may have been relocated underground, with no radiation anomalies detected post-strikes. Ongoing indirect negotiations, where Iran proposed a five-year enrichment suspension rejected by the Trump administration, alongside sustained sanctions and military pressure, reinforce trader consensus at 90.5% for "No," viewing a detectable nuclear test before 2027 as improbable amid de-escalation signals and absent evidence of explosive testing at facilities like Taleghan 2. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or covert advances could shift odds, but structural barriers remain high.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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