Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged major Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, rendering significant portions of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried under rubble. IAEA assessments through mid-2026, including the June 4 report, indicate no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities, with inspectors facing restricted access and little change from pre-strike evaluations. Ongoing bilateral talks, including interim U.S.-Iran understandings and a June 2026 memorandum reaffirming Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, have prioritized limits and verification over escalation. These factors, combined with the absence of any confirmed test preparations or activity, underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of an Iranian nuclear detonation before the end of 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Teste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Sim
$228,755 Vol.
$228,755 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$228,755 Vol.
$228,755 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged major Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, rendering significant portions of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried under rubble. IAEA assessments through mid-2026, including the June 4 report, indicate no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities, with inspectors facing restricted access and little change from pre-strike evaluations. Ongoing bilateral talks, including interim U.S.-Iran understandings and a June 2026 memorandum reaffirming Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, have prioritized limits and verification over escalation. These factors, combined with the absence of any confirmed test preparations or activity, underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of an Iranian nuclear detonation before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$228,755Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged major Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, rendering significant portions of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried under rubble. IAEA assessments through mid-2026, including the June 4 report, indicate no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities, with inspectors facing restricted access and little change from pre-strike evaluations. Ongoing bilateral talks, including interim U.S.-Iran understandings and a June 2026 memorandum reaffirming Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, have prioritized limits and verification over escalation. These factors, combined with the absence of any confirmed test preparations or activity, underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of an Iranian nuclear detonation before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$228,755Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged major Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, rendering significant portions of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried under rubble. IAEA assessments through mid-2026, including the June 4 report, indicate no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities, with inspectors facing restricted access and little change from pre-strike evaluations. Ongoing bilateral talks, including interim U.S.-Iran understandings and a June 2026 memorandum reaffirming Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, have prioritized limits and verification over escalation. These factors, combined with the absence of any confirmed test preparations or activity, underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of an Iranian nuclear detonation before the end of 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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