Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related infrastructure, halting or severely limiting uranium enrichment activities according to satellite imagery and U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA inspectors withdrew following the initial strikes and have been unable to verify the status or location of Iran’s roughly 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent, much of which remains buried under rubble. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified in March 2026 that Iran has not resumed enrichment, while IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated there is no evidence of a structured Iranian weapons program. Ongoing diplomatic talks amid demands for dismantlement and the absence of test preparations or related seismic activity underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 92.5 percent probability for no nuclear test before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Teste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Sim
$209,836 Vol.
$209,836 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$209,836 Vol.
$209,836 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related infrastructure, halting or severely limiting uranium enrichment activities according to satellite imagery and U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA inspectors withdrew following the initial strikes and have been unable to verify the status or location of Iran’s roughly 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent, much of which remains buried under rubble. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified in March 2026 that Iran has not resumed enrichment, while IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated there is no evidence of a structured Iranian weapons program. Ongoing diplomatic talks amid demands for dismantlement and the absence of test preparations or related seismic activity underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 92.5 percent probability for no nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$209,836Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related infrastructure, halting or severely limiting uranium enrichment activities according to satellite imagery and U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA inspectors withdrew following the initial strikes and have been unable to verify the status or location of Iran’s roughly 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent, much of which remains buried under rubble. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified in March 2026 that Iran has not resumed enrichment, while IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated there is no evidence of a structured Iranian weapons program. Ongoing diplomatic talks amid demands for dismantlement and the absence of test preparations or related seismic activity underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 92.5 percent probability for no nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$209,836Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related infrastructure, halting or severely limiting uranium enrichment activities according to satellite imagery and U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA inspectors withdrew following the initial strikes and have been unable to verify the status or location of Iran’s roughly 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent, much of which remains buried under rubble. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified in March 2026 that Iran has not resumed enrichment, while IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated there is no evidence of a structured Iranian weapons program. Ongoing diplomatic talks amid demands for dismantlement and the absence of test preparations or related seismic activity underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 92.5 percent probability for no nuclear test before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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