Iran's nuclear program faces significant barriers to conducting a test before 2027, reflected in traders' 95.1% consensus against it. U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 rendered most enrichment facilities inoperable, with key stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried under rubble at sites like Isfahan and inaccessible without detection. The IAEA has lost verification continuity since mid-2025, denied access to inspectors, and in September 2026 referred Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance amid ongoing construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. Iran maintains no active enrichment and has not pursued weaponization tests historically. Realistic shifts could arise from secret material recovery, a supreme leader policy reversal authorizing rapid weaponization, or major escalation in regional conflicts that alters deterrence calculations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
5% chance
$258,539 Vol.
$258,539 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
5% chance
$258,539 Vol.
$258,539 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear program faces significant barriers to conducting a test before 2027, reflected in traders' 95.1% consensus against it. U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 rendered most enrichment facilities inoperable, with key stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried under rubble at sites like Isfahan and inaccessible without detection. The IAEA has lost verification continuity since mid-2025, denied access to inspectors, and in September 2026 referred Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance amid ongoing construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. Iran maintains no active enrichment and has not pursued weaponization tests historically. Realistic shifts could arise from secret material recovery, a supreme leader policy reversal authorizing rapid weaponization, or major escalation in regional conflicts that alters deterrence calculations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$258,539Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear program faces significant barriers to conducting a test before 2027, reflected in traders' 95.1% consensus against it. U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 rendered most enrichment facilities inoperable, with key stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried under rubble at sites like Isfahan and inaccessible without detection. The IAEA has lost verification continuity since mid-2025, denied access to inspectors, and in September 2026 referred Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance amid ongoing construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. Iran maintains no active enrichment and has not pursued weaponization tests historically. Realistic shifts could arise from secret material recovery, a supreme leader policy reversal authorizing rapid weaponization, or major escalation in regional conflicts that alters deterrence calculations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$258,539Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's nuclear program faces significant barriers to conducting a test before 2027, reflected in traders' 95.1% consensus against it. U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 rendered most enrichment facilities inoperable, with key stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried under rubble at sites like Isfahan and inaccessible without detection. The IAEA has lost verification continuity since mid-2025, denied access to inspectors, and in September 2026 referred Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance amid ongoing construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. Iran maintains no active enrichment and has not pursued weaponization tests historically. Realistic shifts could arise from secret material recovery, a supreme leader policy reversal authorizing rapid weaponization, or major escalation in regional conflicts that alters deterrence calculations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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