Recent Israeli and U.S. strikes in June 2025 (Operation Midnight Hammer targeting Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan) and February 2026 significantly damaged Iran’s uranium enrichment infrastructure and related facilities, with IAEA inspectors subsequently losing access. U.S. intelligence assessments through March 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed enrichment activities, while its existing stockpile of near-weapons-grade material remains largely inaccessible or buried. No evidence has emerged of an active weaponization effort or preparations for an explosive nuclear test, consistent with Iran’s status as an NPT non-nuclear-weapon state. Ongoing reconstruction at select sites faces technical and sanctions constraints, supporting trader consensus that a test before 2027 remains unlikely absent major escalation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Teste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Sim
$209,836 Vol.
$209,836 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$209,836 Vol.
$209,836 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent Israeli and U.S. strikes in June 2025 (Operation Midnight Hammer targeting Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan) and February 2026 significantly damaged Iran’s uranium enrichment infrastructure and related facilities, with IAEA inspectors subsequently losing access. U.S. intelligence assessments through March 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed enrichment activities, while its existing stockpile of near-weapons-grade material remains largely inaccessible or buried. No evidence has emerged of an active weaponization effort or preparations for an explosive nuclear test, consistent with Iran’s status as an NPT non-nuclear-weapon state. Ongoing reconstruction at select sites faces technical and sanctions constraints, supporting trader consensus that a test before 2027 remains unlikely absent major escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$209,836Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent Israeli and U.S. strikes in June 2025 (Operation Midnight Hammer targeting Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan) and February 2026 significantly damaged Iran’s uranium enrichment infrastructure and related facilities, with IAEA inspectors subsequently losing access. U.S. intelligence assessments through March 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed enrichment activities, while its existing stockpile of near-weapons-grade material remains largely inaccessible or buried. No evidence has emerged of an active weaponization effort or preparations for an explosive nuclear test, consistent with Iran’s status as an NPT non-nuclear-weapon state. Ongoing reconstruction at select sites faces technical and sanctions constraints, supporting trader consensus that a test before 2027 remains unlikely absent major escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$209,836Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Israeli and U.S. strikes in June 2025 (Operation Midnight Hammer targeting Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan) and February 2026 significantly damaged Iran’s uranium enrichment infrastructure and related facilities, with IAEA inspectors subsequently losing access. U.S. intelligence assessments through March 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed enrichment activities, while its existing stockpile of near-weapons-grade material remains largely inaccessible or buried. No evidence has emerged of an active weaponization effort or preparations for an explosive nuclear test, consistent with Iran’s status as an NPT non-nuclear-weapon state. Ongoing reconstruction at select sites faces technical and sanctions constraints, supporting trader consensus that a test before 2027 remains unlikely absent major escalation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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