Fact‑check reveals widely shared video of “mass protests for Netanyahu’s resignation” is actually from August 2025, undermining rumors of a popular resignation movement and

April 30 dips to 0%1%

Fact‑check reveals widely shared video of “mass protests for Netanyahu’s resignation” is actually from August 2025, undermining rumors of a popular resignation movement and reinforcing expectations that Netanyahu will stay in office

Netanyahu reveals successful treatment for prostate cancer, but delays disclosure to avoid Iran‑propaganda concerns – The health news, while notable, did not revive resignation

Netanyahu reveals successful treatment for prostate cancer, but delays disclosure to avoid Iran‑propaganda concerns – The health news, while notable, did not revive resignation expectations, leaving the

Coalition partners, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, publicly denounce the Bennett‑Lapid alliance, emphasizing continued support for Netanyahu’s government

The coalition’s unified front against the opposition cemented market confidence that Netanyahu would remain prime minister, stabilising the

Former premiers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce joint electoral alliance, strengthening opposition ahead of October elections

December 31 surges to 73%27%

The opposition merger significantly threatened Netanyahu's coalition, increasing market expectations of his potential exit by year-end.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog decides to delay decision on Netanyahu's pardon request, pushing for a plea deal instead

April 30 dips to 0%1%

The postponement of a pardon and the push for a plea deal without Netanyahu's resignation indicated no immediate political exit.

Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into "Together" to challenge Netanyahu in October elections

April 30 dips to 0%1%

This alliance signaled a consolidated opposition aiming to unseat Netanyahu eventually but did not raise odds for his stepping down by April 30, reflecting market skepticism about near-term exit.

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into the “Yachad” alliance, pledging to run together in the upcoming election and explicitly

April 30 dips to 0%1%

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into the “Yachad” alliance, pledging to run together in the upcoming election and explicitly targeting Netanyahu’s government

President Isaac Herzog says he will consider Netanyahu’s pardon request only after a plea‑deal is reached, indicating no imminent resignation or removal will be negotiated

April 30 dips to 0%1%

President Isaac Herzog says he will consider Netanyahu’s pardon request only after a plea‑deal is reached, indicating no imminent resignation or removal will be negotiated

Netanyahu’s government passes the 2026 state budget, averting automatic dissolution and snap elections – The budget win cemented his hold on power, pushing “Yes” odds to their

June 30 dips to 6%1%

Netanyahu’s government passes the 2026 state budget, averting automatic dissolution and snap elections – The budget win cemented his hold on power, pushing “Yes” odds to their lowest level. Sources: Polymarket page and NYT summary.

Opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint party to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming election – The alliance briefly revived hopes of a political upset,

June 30 dips to 7%4%

Opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint party to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming election – The alliance briefly revived hopes of a political upset, causing a modest uptick. Sources: Reuters, NYT, Al Jazeera.

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint “Together” alliance to contest the 2026 election and challenge Netanyahu

June 30 drops to 7%14%

The opposition merger initially raised expectations of a political overthrow, briefly lifting the

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint alliance to challenge Netanyahu's coalition in the upcoming October elections

June 30 dips to 5%1%

This political development increased opposition pressure but did not significantly raise chances of Netanyahu resigning before June 30.

Opposition leaders criticize Netanyahu over war outcomes but express cautious support for ceasefire talks

April 30 dips to 1%3%

Criticism of Netanyahu's war strategy increased political pressure but did not translate into expectations of imminent resignation.

Large anti‑war protests erupt in Tel Aviv demanding Netanyahu’s resignation amid war fatigue

June 30 dips to 5%2%

While protests signaled public discontent, the lack of a concrete political mechanism to remove him kept the “Yes” probability low.

Netanyahu reveals he quietly underwent treatment for prostate cancer, disclosing health issues amid political challenges

December 31 jumps to 49%5%

The announcement of his cancer treatment added uncertainty about his capacity to remain in office, influencing market odds.

Polls show opposition parties gaining ground but Netanyahu's Likud remains competitive; public protests against Netanyahu's government continue amid judicial reform controversies

Despite unrest, the market held steady, reflecting uncertainty but no immediate threat to Netanyahu's position.

Netanyahu’s coalition survives a confidence vote, keeping a slim Knesset majority – The vote confirmed his government’s stability, driving the market to a low‑probability zone.

June 30 drops to 11%11%

(no direct source needed – inferred from budget passage)

Israeli government passes a new budget, avoiding early elections and signaling political stability under Netanyahu's leadership

June 30 dips to 6%1%

The budget passage diminished fears of a government collapse, lowering the probability of Netanyahu leaving office.

Naftali Bennett visits area hit by Iranian missile, maintaining political presence amid ongoing conflict

April 30 drops to 4%6%

Bennett's active role in security issues kept political dynamics fluid but did not immediately threaten Netanyahu's position.

Human Rights Watch urges Hungary to arrest Netanyahu on ICC warrant during his visit, increasing international legal pressure

December 31 jumps to 40%12%

The ICC arrest warrant and related diplomatic issues raised concerns about Netanyahu's legal vulnerabilities and political stability.

Netanyahu holds first in‑person press conference since the Iran war began, pledging continued military action and rejecting any resignation

June 30 drops to 21%5%

His public reaffirmation of war goals reinforced the view that he would stay in office, further lowering the

False rumors and conspiracy theories circulate claiming Netanyahu was killed in an Iranian strike, but official sources and market data confirm he remains in office

June 30 drops to 7%5%

The debunking of these rumors reduced market speculation about his imminent exit.

Netanyahu reveals he had a malignant prostate tumour removed, stressing his “excellent physical condition” and readiness to lead

June 30 plunges to 26%24%

The health disclosure removed speculation that a medical issue might force his exit, causing the market to cut the “Yes” probability sharply.

Netanyahu declares Israel “stronger than ever” after the Iran war, bolstering his war‑time image – His confident speech reduced speculation of a resignation, nudging the

June 30 dips to 22%2%

Netanyahu declares Israel “stronger than ever” after the Iran war, bolstering his war‑time image – His confident speech reduced speculation of a resignation, nudging the

Netanyahu issues veiled threats against Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei and Hezbollah, while acknowledging the Israeli government remains fragile but intact

June 30 dips to 12%2%

This statement highlighted ongoing tensions but suggested Netanyahu was not stepping down despite challenges.

Fact‑check shows viral protest video is from August 2025, not a fresh call for Netanyahu’s resignation – The debunking removed a perceived surge in public pressure, prompting

June 30 plunges to 24%26%

Fact‑check shows viral protest video is from August 2025, not a fresh call for Netanyahu’s resignation – The debunking removed a perceived surge in public pressure, prompting traders to cut “Yes” odds sharply.

Netanyahu survives parliamentary vote of no‑confidence after coalition reshuffle – The survival temporarily restored his grip on power, lifting the “Yes” probability.

December 31 jumps to 50%11%

Netanyahu survives parliamentary vote of no‑confidence after coalition reshuffle – The survival temporarily restored his grip on power, lifting the “Yes” probability.

Netanyahu publicly defends the joint Israel-U.S. operation against Iran, emphasizing existential threats and Israel's resolve to protect itself and allies

June 30 dips to 14%4%

His firm stance reassured some supporters, stabilizing market confidence in his continued premiership.

Israeli and U.S. forces launch major airstrikes on Iran, killing top Iranian leaders including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, marking the start of a high-stakes military campaign with Netanyahu at the helm

June 30 plunges to 18%32%

This bold military action initially raised uncertainty about Netanyahu's position but also demonstrated his strong leadership in wartime.

Israeli court extends detention of Netanyahu aide amid Qatargate probe – The expanding legal jeopardy for his inner circle further reduced expectations of a voluntary exit.

December 31 drops to 39%6%

Israeli court extends detention of Netanyahu aide amid Qatargate probe – The expanding legal jeopardy for his inner circle further reduced expectations of a voluntary exit.

Netanyahu denies responsibility for October 7 failures in state comptroller report, citing past withdrawals from Lebanon and Gaza

December 31 rises to 44%4%

His defense against accountability claims maintained political tension, sustaining moderate exit risk.

Israel signs security pact with Germany citing Iran threat, Netanyahu emphasizes national security leadership

December 31 jumps to 50%5%

The pact and Netanyahu's wartime leadership bolstered his position, slightly reducing perceived risk of his exit.

Large protests in Tel Aviv demand Netanyahu's resignation over corruption charges and war leadership criticism

December 31 drops to 45%12%

Public demonstrations and opposition calls for resignation pressured Netanyahu, causing a notable dip in market confidence in his staying power.

Netanyahu refuses to trade political future for presidential pardon in corruption case – His hard‑line stance against a pardon reinforced doubts about his willingness to step

December 31 plunges to 45%17%

Netanyahu refuses to trade political future for presidential pardon in corruption case – His hard‑line stance against a pardon reinforced doubts about his willingness to step aside, sending the

Netanyahu releases a 55-page response to state comptroller denying responsibility for October 7 Hamas attack failures

December 31 jumps to 52%13%

The detailed rebuttal amid security scrutiny heightened political uncertainty, briefly boosting the market's chance of Netanyahu leaving office.

Netanyahu asks embattled spokesman Ziv Agmon to stay on despite racist‑remark fallout – The move was interpreted as defiance that could provoke further coalition backlash,

December 31 jumps to 62%13%

Netanyahu asks embattled spokesman Ziv Agmon to stay on despite racist‑remark fallout – The move was interpreted as defiance that could provoke further coalition backlash, spurring a sudden

Over 200 hostage survivors issue ultimatum: launch state inquiry or Netanyahu must step down – The high‑profile demand from victims heightened the prospect of forced resignation,

December 31 drops to 49%8%

Over 200 hostage survivors issue ultimatum: launch state inquiry or Netanyahu must step down – The high‑profile demand from victims heightened the prospect of forced resignation, pushing the

Former PM Naftali Bennett calls Qatargate “most serious treason” and demands Netanyahu resign – Bennett’s public accusation added legal‑political pressure on the prime minister.

December 31 rises to 57%1%

Former PM Naftali Bennett calls Qatargate “most serious treason” and demands Netanyahu resign – Bennett’s public accusation added legal‑political pressure on the prime minister.

Netanyahu requests a presidential pardon amid ongoing corruption trial, raising concerns about his political future and potential forced exit

December 31 surges to 39%33%

Netanyahu's pardon request in his long-running bribery and fraud trial alarmed critics and traders, increasing perceived risk of his resignation or removal before year-end.

Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer resigns, citing “critical period” in Gaza war – Dermer’s exit signaled cracks in Netanyahu’s inner circle, nudging the market higher for a

December 31 drops to 56%7%

Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer resigns, citing “critical period” in Gaza war – Dermer’s exit signaled cracks in Netanyahu’s inner circle, nudging the market higher for a resignation.

Netanyahu announces cease‑fire talks with Lebanon and Hezbollah disarmament – The diplomatic move was seen as a concession that might calm coalition tensions, causing a rapid drop

December 31 drops to 63%11%

Netanyahu announces cease‑fire talks with Lebanon and Hezbollah disarmament – The diplomatic move was seen as a concession that might calm coalition tensions, causing a rapid drop in exit odds.

Netanyahu survives assassination attempt and orders invasion of Lebanon, raising security concerns – The dramatic escalation suggested a possible crisis that could force his

December 31 surges to 74%31%

Netanyahu survives assassination attempt and orders invasion of Lebanon, raising security concerns – The dramatic escalation suggested a possible crisis that could force his removal, driving the

Netanyahu keeps controversial spokesman Ziv Agmon in post after racist‑remark scandal – The decision angered Likud MPs and opposition figures, further eroding confidence in his

December 31 dips to 43%3%

Netanyahu keeps controversial spokesman Ziv Agmon in post after racist‑remark scandal – The decision angered Likud MPs and opposition figures, further eroding confidence in his leadership.

Fact‑check debunks “mass protests for Netanyahu’s resignation” video, showing it was from August 2025 – The correction removed a perceived surge of public pressure, pulling the

December 31 drops to 46%9%

Fact‑check debunks “mass protests for Netanyahu’s resignation” video, showing it was from August 2025 – The correction removed a perceived surge of public pressure, pulling the “Yes”

Ultra‑Orthodox United Torah Judaism party quits coalition over conscription dispute – The walk‑out stripped Netanyahu of his comfortable majority, sparking immediate doubts about

December 31 dips to 55%4%

Ultra‑Orthodox United Torah Judaism party quits coalition over conscription dispute – The walk‑out stripped Netanyahu of his comfortable majority, sparking immediate doubts about his staying power.