Ongoing tensions with Iran, including the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver of trader assessments for potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, though the Tel Aviv FIR has stayed open as of mid-August. Elevated EASA risk advisories and carrier restrictions persist due to threats from proxies such as Hezbollah and Yemen-based actors, with short-notice disruptions possible from intercepts or escalations. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the region could shift closure probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$27,256,251 Vol.
15 jul 2026
31 de agosto
5%
$27,256,251 Vol.
31 de agosto
$1,224,370 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions with Iran, including the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver of trader assessments for potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, though the Tel Aviv FIR has stayed open as of mid-August. Elevated EASA risk advisories and carrier restrictions persist due to threats from proxies such as Hezbollah and Yemen-based actors, with short-notice disruptions possible from intercepts or escalations. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the region could shift closure probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$27,256,251Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions with Iran, including the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver of trader assessments for potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, though the Tel Aviv FIR has stayed open as of mid-August. Elevated EASA risk advisories and carrier restrictions persist due to threats from proxies such as Hezbollah and Yemen-based actors, with short-notice disruptions possible from intercepts or escalations. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the region could shift closure probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,256,251Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions with Iran, including the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver of trader assessments for potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, though the Tel Aviv FIR has stayed open as of mid-August. Elevated EASA risk advisories and carrier restrictions persist due to threats from proxies such as Hezbollah and Yemen-based actors, with short-notice disruptions possible from intercepts or escalations. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the region could shift closure probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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