Escalating Middle East tensions, including Iranian threats and Houthi attacks on vessels, remain the dominant driver behind trader focus on Bab el-Mandeb Strait flows. Oil transit volumes through the chokepoint have stayed near 4.2 million barrels per day in Q1 2025, well below 2023 peaks, after repeated disruptions forced major carriers such as Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. These detours add 10–14 days and roughly $1.2–1.8 million in fuel costs per round trip, lifting war-risk insurance premiums more than tenfold and pressuring global supply-chain expenses. Recent U.S.-Houthi cease-fire arrangements and Saudi pipeline alternatives have capped further sharp declines, yet any renewed escalation tied to Strait of Hormuz developments could quickly widen the gap between current volumes and historical norms ahead of the next key trade data releases.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO estreito de Bab el-Mandeb foi efetivamente fechado por...?
O estreito de Bab el-Mandeb foi efetivamente fechado por...?
$3,026,983 Vol.
30 abr 2026
31 de maio
4%
30 de junho
12%
30 de setembro
20%
$3,026,983 Vol.
31 de maio
$964,946 Vol.
4%
30 de junho
$66,403 Vol.
12%
30 de setembro
$13,692 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Escalating Middle East tensions, including Iranian threats and Houthi attacks on vessels, remain the dominant driver behind trader focus on Bab el-Mandeb Strait flows. Oil transit volumes through the chokepoint have stayed near 4.2 million barrels per day in Q1 2025, well below 2023 peaks, after repeated disruptions forced major carriers such as Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. These detours add 10–14 days and roughly $1.2–1.8 million in fuel costs per round trip, lifting war-risk insurance premiums more than tenfold and pressuring global supply-chain expenses. Recent U.S.-Houthi cease-fire arrangements and Saudi pipeline alternatives have capped further sharp declines, yet any renewed escalation tied to Strait of Hormuz developments could quickly widen the gap between current volumes and historical norms ahead of the next key trade data releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,026,983Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Escalating Middle East tensions, including Iranian threats and Houthi attacks on vessels, remain the dominant driver behind trader focus on Bab el-Mandeb Strait flows. Oil transit volumes through the chokepoint have stayed near 4.2 million barrels per day in Q1 2025, well below 2023 peaks, after repeated disruptions forced major carriers such as Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. These detours add 10–14 days and roughly $1.2–1.8 million in fuel costs per round trip, lifting war-risk insurance premiums more than tenfold and pressuring global supply-chain expenses. Recent U.S.-Houthi cease-fire arrangements and Saudi pipeline alternatives have capped further sharp declines, yet any renewed escalation tied to Strait of Hormuz developments could quickly widen the gap between current volumes and historical norms ahead of the next key trade data releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$3,026,983Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating Middle East tensions, including Iranian threats and Houthi attacks on vessels, remain the dominant driver behind trader focus on Bab el-Mandeb Strait flows. Oil transit volumes through the chokepoint have stayed near 4.2 million barrels per day in Q1 2025, well below 2023 peaks, after repeated disruptions forced major carriers such as Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. These detours add 10–14 days and roughly $1.2–1.8 million in fuel costs per round trip, lifting war-risk insurance premiums more than tenfold and pressuring global supply-chain expenses. Recent U.S.-Houthi cease-fire arrangements and Saudi pipeline alternatives have capped further sharp declines, yet any renewed escalation tied to Strait of Hormuz developments could quickly widen the gap between current volumes and historical norms ahead of the next key trade data releases.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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