Recent U.S.-Iran diplomatic developments, including the June 2026 memorandum of understanding in which Tehran reaffirmed it would not procure or develop nuclear weapons, have reinforced trader expectations that Iran will not achieve a nuclear device before 2027. U.S. and Iranian officials have stated that enrichment activities have not resumed following the 2025 and early 2026 strikes on facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remaining inaccessible under rubble and without recovery plans. IAEA access remains limited after inspector withdrawals, and intelligence assessments indicate the attacks set back any potential weaponization timeline by years rather than months. These factors, combined with ongoing negotiations and verification challenges, underpin the current 94.4% implied probability against an Iranian nuclear weapon by the end of 2026.