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Geopolítica·Nuclear

O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?

icon for O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?
Geopolítica·Nuclear

O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

10% chance
Polymarket

$383,311 Vol.

Sim

10% chance
Polymarket

$383,311 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Iranian lawmakers have submitted formal proposals to parliament for NPT withdrawal following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear and military targets in 2025–2026, including recent calls by hardline MPs such as Qasem Ravanbakhsh after reported attacks and leadership losses.** These moves cite alleged violations of treaty protections and have been discussed alongside defense doctrine revisions, with similar statements recurring since the June 2025 strikes and earlier sanction disputes. Despite this, senior Iranian officials and the IAEA have repeatedly reaffirmed Tehran's NPT commitments. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated in August 2026 that Iran has made clear it will not leave the treaty, while emphasizing ongoing (if fluctuating) cooperation and denying weaponization efforts. Legislative proposals require further steps, including Guardian Council review, and face internal debates amid parallel U.S.-Iran talks under a June 2026 MOU aimed at new nuclear limits. **Traders price the 89.9% probability of no withdrawal before 2027 on the gap between parliamentary rhetoric and actual execution, historical patterns of threats without follow-through, and structural incentives to retain NPT status for diplomatic leverage and IAEA engagement.** Resolution depends on verifiable Iranian action under Article X procedures before the deadline, with recent developments showing continued participation in review processes rather than exit.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$383,311
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Iranian lawmakers have submitted formal proposals to parliament for NPT withdrawal following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear and military targets in 2025–2026, including recent calls by hardline MPs such as Qasem Ravanbakhsh after reported attacks and leadership losses.** These moves cite alleged violations of treaty protections and have been discussed alongside defense doctrine revisions, with similar statements recurring since the June 2025 strikes and earlier sanction disputes. Despite this, senior Iranian officials and the IAEA have repeatedly reaffirmed Tehran's NPT commitments. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated in August 2026 that Iran has made clear it will not leave the treaty, while emphasizing ongoing (if fluctuating) cooperation and denying weaponization efforts. Legislative proposals require further steps, including Guardian Council review, and face internal debates amid parallel U.S.-Iran talks under a June 2026 MOU aimed at new nuclear limits. **Traders price the 89.9% probability of no withdrawal before 2027 on the gap between parliamentary rhetoric and actual execution, historical patterns of threats without follow-through, and structural incentives to retain NPT status for diplomatic leverage and IAEA engagement.** Resolution depends on verifiable Iranian action under Article X procedures before the deadline, with recent developments showing continued participation in review processes rather than exit.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$383,311
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "O Irã irá se retirar do TNP antes de 2027?" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?" has generated $383.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?" is "O Irã irá se retirar do TNP antes de 2027?" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.