Skip to main content

Para negociar nos EUA, acesse polymarket.us

icon for Um aliado dos EUA obterá uma arma nuclear antes de 2027?
Política·Trump

Um aliado dos EUA obterá uma arma nuclear antes de 2027?

icon for Um aliado dos EUA obterá uma arma nuclear antes de 2027?
Política·Trump

Um aliado dos EUA obterá uma arma nuclear antes de 2027?

jan 1, 2027

jan 1, 2027

Sim

5% chance
Polymarket

$212,871 Vol.

Sim

5% chance
Polymarket

$212,871 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The compressed timeline until December 31, 2026, combined with technical, legal, and political barriers, underpins trader consensus against any US ally acquiring an independent nuclear weapon. South Korea and Japan continue public debates over latency or sharing options amid North Korean advances, yet their governments have explicitly ruled out independent arsenals, reprocessing rights, or NPT withdrawal in recent statements. Saudi Arabia’s July 2026 US nuclear cooperation agreements emphasize peaceful uses and nonproliferation safeguards without granting enrichment consent. NATO allies focus on existing US extended deterrence and nuclear-sharing arrangements rather than new programs, with Poland rejecting forward deployment. No ally has initiated a breakout effort that could yield a tested or operational weapon in the remaining months.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$212,871
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The compressed timeline until December 31, 2026, combined with technical, legal, and political barriers, underpins trader consensus against any US ally acquiring an independent nuclear weapon. South Korea and Japan continue public debates over latency or sharing options amid North Korean advances, yet their governments have explicitly ruled out independent arsenals, reprocessing rights, or NPT withdrawal in recent statements. Saudi Arabia’s July 2026 US nuclear cooperation agreements emphasize peaceful uses and nonproliferation safeguards without granting enrichment consent. NATO allies focus on existing US extended deterrence and nuclear-sharing arrangements rather than new programs, with Poland rejecting forward deployment. No ally has initiated a breakout effort that could yield a tested or operational weapon in the remaining months.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$212,871
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Relacionado

icon for Irã terá bomba nuclear antes de 2027?

Irã terá bomba nuclear antes de 2027?

6%
Sim
icon for Acordo nuclear EUA x Rússia até 31 de dezembro de 2026?

Acordo nuclear EUA x Rússia até 31 de dezembro de 2026?

6%
Sim
icon for Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?

Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?

5%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Um aliado dos EUA obterá uma arma nuclear antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Um aliado dos EUA obterá uma arma nuclear antes de 2027?" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Um aliado dos EUA obterá uma arma nuclear antes de 2027?" has generated $212.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Um aliado dos EUA obterá uma arma nuclear antes de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Um aliado dos EUA obterá uma arma nuclear antes de 2027?" is "Um aliado dos EUA obterá uma arma nuclear antes de 2027?" at just 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Um aliado dos EUA obterá uma arma nuclear antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.