Ongoing diplomatic contacts between US envoys, Ukraine, and Russia have explored territorial compromises and security arrangements but have not produced any shift toward formal US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian regions. Longstanding US policy, including the Welles Doctrine against legitimizing conquests, congressional restrictions on recognizing occupied Ukrainian territory, and Ukraine’s firm stance on 1991 borders continue to constrain outcomes. With only months remaining before 2027 and stalled progress in recent Geneva and Kyiv talks, traders assign overwhelming probability to no such recognition occurring. A rapid, comprehensive peace agreement endorsed by the US administration could still alter the trajectory, though current positions make this improbable within the timeframe.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
4% chance
$187,736 Vol.
$187,736 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
4% chance
$187,736 Vol.
$187,736 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.Ongoing diplomatic contacts between US envoys, Ukraine, and Russia have explored territorial compromises and security arrangements but have not produced any shift toward formal US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian regions. Longstanding US policy, including the Welles Doctrine against legitimizing conquests, congressional restrictions on recognizing occupied Ukrainian territory, and Ukraine’s firm stance on 1991 borders continue to constrain outcomes. With only months remaining before 2027 and stalled progress in recent Geneva and Kyiv talks, traders assign overwhelming probability to no such recognition occurring. A rapid, comprehensive peace agreement endorsed by the US administration could still alter the trajectory, though current positions make this improbable within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$187,736Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.Ongoing diplomatic contacts between US envoys, Ukraine, and Russia have explored territorial compromises and security arrangements but have not produced any shift toward formal US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian regions. Longstanding US policy, including the Welles Doctrine against legitimizing conquests, congressional restrictions on recognizing occupied Ukrainian territory, and Ukraine’s firm stance on 1991 borders continue to constrain outcomes. With only months remaining before 2027 and stalled progress in recent Geneva and Kyiv talks, traders assign overwhelming probability to no such recognition occurring. A rapid, comprehensive peace agreement endorsed by the US administration could still alter the trajectory, though current positions make this improbable within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Volume
$187,736Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic contacts between US envoys, Ukraine, and Russia have explored territorial compromises and security arrangements but have not produced any shift toward formal US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian regions. Longstanding US policy, including the Welles Doctrine against legitimizing conquests, congressional restrictions on recognizing occupied Ukrainian territory, and Ukraine’s firm stance on 1991 borders continue to constrain outcomes. With only months remaining before 2027 and stalled progress in recent Geneva and Kyiv talks, traders assign overwhelming probability to no such recognition occurring. A rapid, comprehensive peace agreement endorsed by the US administration could still alter the trajectory, though current positions make this improbable within the timeframe.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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