Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95% implied probability that President Donald Trump will not resign before 2027, driven by the absence of any official announcements, health crises, or impeachment proceedings signaling an exit from the presidency 15 months into his second term. Recent partisan speculation, such as Democratic strategist James Carville's early April prediction of a post-midterm resignation for a potential pardon from Vice President JD Vance, has failed to materialize amid Trump's active public schedule, including defenses of his energy via CT scan disclosures and foreign policy engagements. No verified legal convictions, 25th Amendment invocations, or congressional removal efforts have gained traction, aligning with historical low rates of mid-term presidential resignations absent extraordinary catalysts. Late-breaking scandals, sudden health events, or 2026 midterm losses could shift odds, but current White House stability underpins the strong "No" pricing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$15,427 Vol.
$15,427 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$15,427 Vol.
$15,427 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95% implied probability that President Donald Trump will not resign before 2027, driven by the absence of any official announcements, health crises, or impeachment proceedings signaling an exit from the presidency 15 months into his second term. Recent partisan speculation, such as Democratic strategist James Carville's early April prediction of a post-midterm resignation for a potential pardon from Vice President JD Vance, has failed to materialize amid Trump's active public schedule, including defenses of his energy via CT scan disclosures and foreign policy engagements. No verified legal convictions, 25th Amendment invocations, or congressional removal efforts have gained traction, aligning with historical low rates of mid-term presidential resignations absent extraordinary catalysts. Late-breaking scandals, sudden health events, or 2026 midterm losses could shift odds, but current White House stability underpins the strong "No" pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
Volume
$15,427Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95% implied probability that President Donald Trump will not resign before 2027, driven by the absence of any official announcements, health crises, or impeachment proceedings signaling an exit from the presidency 15 months into his second term. Recent partisan speculation, such as Democratic strategist James Carville's early April prediction of a post-midterm resignation for a potential pardon from Vice President JD Vance, has failed to materialize amid Trump's active public schedule, including defenses of his energy via CT scan disclosures and foreign policy engagements. No verified legal convictions, 25th Amendment invocations, or congressional removal efforts have gained traction, aligning with historical low rates of mid-term presidential resignations absent extraordinary catalysts. Late-breaking scandals, sudden health events, or 2026 midterm losses could shift odds, but current White House stability underpins the strong "No" pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$15,427Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95% implied probability that President Donald Trump will not resign before 2027, driven by the absence of any official announcements, health crises, or impeachment proceedings signaling an exit from the presidency 15 months into his second term. Recent partisan speculation, such as Democratic strategist James Carville's early April prediction of a post-midterm resignation for a potential pardon from Vice President JD Vance, has failed to materialize amid Trump's active public schedule, including defenses of his energy via CT scan disclosures and foreign policy engagements. No verified legal convictions, 25th Amendment invocations, or congressional removal efforts have gained traction, aligning with historical low rates of mid-term presidential resignations absent extraordinary catalysts. Late-breaking scandals, sudden health events, or 2026 midterm losses could shift odds, but current White House stability underpins the strong "No" pricing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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