Trump's status as the sitting president with a full term extending through 2029 underpins the 96.8% implied probability against resignation before 2027. No major health disclosures, legal pressures, or party signals have emerged to suggest otherwise, consistent with historical patterns where sitting chief executives complete their terms absent extraordinary circumstances like the Nixon precedent. Traders reflect this through sustained positioning on continuity. Late-breaking developments such as acute medical events, significant congressional investigations, or unforeseen personal decisions remain the primary variables that could shift odds, though none currently register as near-term catalysts.