The market-implied odds of 97.3% against abolishing the Federal Reserve before 2027 reflect the institution’s entrenched statutory independence under the Federal Reserve Act and the absence of any viable legislative pathway. The primary driver remains the stalled status of H.R. 1846, the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act introduced in 2025, which has not advanced beyond committee referral amid minimal cosponsorship and congressional priorities centered on continuity in monetary policy. Ongoing FOMC operations, including the April 2026 rate decision holding the federal funds target at 3.5–3.75%, and recent executive actions focused on regulatory modernization rather than structural dissolution reinforce trader consensus. While tail-risk scenarios such as an unforeseen constitutional rupture or abrupt political realignment could theoretically intervene, historical precedent and procedural hurdles make such outcomes remote before the 2026 resolution date.