Mary Peltola leads the Alaska Senate race in trader pricing due to consistent polling edges in recent Alaska Survey Research surveys showing her ahead of incumbent Dan Sullivan by 4-6 points among likely voters. Her record first-quarter fundraising haul of nearly $9 million, more than four times Sullivan's total, has fueled campaign momentum focused on affordability measures such as income tax relief. Sullivan maintains support from key groups including Alaska Native corporations and benefits from his long tenure, yet faces headwinds from national political dynamics and the state's ranked-choice voting system in the August primary and November general election. Minor candidates including Dustin Darden register negligible support in both polls and market prices.