**Rafael López Aliaga of Renovación Popular holds a clear lead in the race for Lima mayor ahead of the October 4, 2026, municipal elections.** Recent September polls from firms including Datum, IEP, CPI, and Campol show him ahead with 20–38% support, often 10+ points clear of Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) in second place, followed by Francis Allison (Avanza País), Daniel Urresti (Podemos Perú), and others in single digits. His positioning as first regidor on the party list—after Luis Rubio’s resignation—has drawn legal scrutiny over immediate re-election rules, but electoral authorities have upheld the candidacy, enabling him to campaign actively as the frontrunner. López Aliaga’s strong district-level showings, name recognition from his prior term, and party organization have consolidated trader consensus around his high probability, while lower-priced candidates reflect their weaker polling and limited momentum in the final weeks. High undecided shares in some surveys leave room for late shifts, though the pattern of leads has remained stable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRafael López Aliaga 82.8%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 13.3%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli 2.2%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué 1.8%
$161,626 Vol.
$161,626 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
83%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
13%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
2%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
2%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
2%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 82.8%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 13.3%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli 2.2%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué 1.8%
$161,626 Vol.
$161,626 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
83%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
13%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
2%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
2%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
2%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Rafael López Aliaga of Renovación Popular holds a clear lead in the race for Lima mayor ahead of the October 4, 2026, municipal elections.** Recent September polls from firms including Datum, IEP, CPI, and Campol show him ahead with 20–38% support, often 10+ points clear of Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) in second place, followed by Francis Allison (Avanza País), Daniel Urresti (Podemos Perú), and others in single digits. His positioning as first regidor on the party list—after Luis Rubio’s resignation—has drawn legal scrutiny over immediate re-election rules, but electoral authorities have upheld the candidacy, enabling him to campaign actively as the frontrunner. López Aliaga’s strong district-level showings, name recognition from his prior term, and party organization have consolidated trader consensus around his high probability, while lower-priced candidates reflect their weaker polling and limited momentum in the final weeks. High undecided shares in some surveys leave room for late shifts, though the pattern of leads has remained stable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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