**Recent polling averages place Die Linke and the CDU neck-and-neck around 20-21%, followed closely by the AfD (17-18%), Greens (16%), and SPD (11-12%), with BSW and FDP below the 5% threshold.** This five-party fragmentation, three days before the 20 September 2026 vote, is the dominant driver of expectations for a larger Abgeordnetenhaus. The minimum 130 seats (78 direct constituencies plus list seats allocated by Hare/Niemeyer) expands through overhang and leveling mandates whenever parties secure more direct wins than their second-vote share justifies; the 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats under similar dynamics. Current trader consensus (163+ at 55%) reflects simulations indicating that even modest direct-mandate overperformance by the CDU or Linke in key eastern and western districts—amid dispersed list votes—will require substantial additional leveling seats to restore proportionality. Lower-probability bins below 153 seats assume unusually efficient direct-list alignment across parties, which recent constituency-level modeling makes less likely. The tight multi-party race and 16-17-year-old first-time voters add marginal uncertainty to turnout patterns that could further influence overhang volume, though the core mechanics of Berlin’s mixed-member system remain the primary variable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado163+ 57%
158–162 15%
153–157 13.1%
148–152 7.0%
NOVO
NOVO
20 set 2026
<143
2%
143–147
3%
148–152
7%
153–157
13%
158–162
15%
163+
57%
163+ 57%
158–162 15%
153–157 13.1%
148–152 7.0%
NOVO
NOVO
20 set 2026
<143
$2,403 Vol.
2%
143–147
$1,910 Vol.
3%
148–152
$703 Vol.
7%
153–157
$833 Vol.
13%
158–162
$1,452 Vol.
15%
163+
$2,507 Vol.
57%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent polling averages place Die Linke and the CDU neck-and-neck around 20-21%, followed closely by the AfD (17-18%), Greens (16%), and SPD (11-12%), with BSW and FDP below the 5% threshold.** This five-party fragmentation, three days before the 20 September 2026 vote, is the dominant driver of expectations for a larger Abgeordnetenhaus. The minimum 130 seats (78 direct constituencies plus list seats allocated by Hare/Niemeyer) expands through overhang and leveling mandates whenever parties secure more direct wins than their second-vote share justifies; the 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats under similar dynamics.
Current trader consensus (163+ at 55%) reflects simulations indicating that even modest direct-mandate overperformance by the CDU or Linke in key eastern and western districts—amid dispersed list votes—will require substantial additional leveling seats to restore proportionality. Lower-probability bins below 153 seats assume unusually efficient direct-list alignment across parties, which recent constituency-level modeling makes less likely. The tight multi-party race and 16-17-year-old first-time voters add marginal uncertainty to turnout patterns that could further influence overhang volume, though the core mechanics of Berlin’s mixed-member system remain the primary variable.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$9,808Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent polling averages place Die Linke and the CDU neck-and-neck around 20-21%, followed closely by the AfD (17-18%), Greens (16%), and SPD (11-12%), with BSW and FDP below the 5% threshold.** This five-party fragmentation, three days before the 20 September 2026 vote, is the dominant driver of expectations for a larger Abgeordnetenhaus. The minimum 130 seats (78 direct constituencies plus list seats allocated by Hare/Niemeyer) expands through overhang and leveling mandates whenever parties secure more direct wins than their second-vote share justifies; the 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats under similar dynamics.
Current trader consensus (163+ at 55%) reflects simulations indicating that even modest direct-mandate overperformance by the CDU or Linke in key eastern and western districts—amid dispersed list votes—will require substantial additional leveling seats to restore proportionality. Lower-probability bins below 153 seats assume unusually efficient direct-list alignment across parties, which recent constituency-level modeling makes less likely. The tight multi-party race and 16-17-year-old first-time voters add marginal uncertainty to turnout patterns that could further influence overhang volume, though the core mechanics of Berlin’s mixed-member system remain the primary variable.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,808Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling averages place Die Linke and the CDU neck-and-neck around 20-21%, followed closely by the AfD (17-18%), Greens (16%), and SPD (11-12%), with BSW and FDP below the 5% threshold.** This five-party fragmentation, three days before the 20 September 2026 vote, is the dominant driver of expectations for a larger Abgeordnetenhaus. The minimum 130 seats (78 direct constituencies plus list seats allocated by Hare/Niemeyer) expands through overhang and leveling mandates whenever parties secure more direct wins than their second-vote share justifies; the 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats under similar dynamics. Current trader consensus (163+ at 55%) reflects simulations indicating that even modest direct-mandate overperformance by the CDU or Linke in key eastern and western districts—amid dispersed list votes—will require substantial additional leveling seats to restore proportionality. Lower-probability bins below 153 seats assume unusually efficient direct-list alignment across parties, which recent constituency-level modeling makes less likely. The tight multi-party race and 16-17-year-old first-time voters add marginal uncertainty to turnout patterns that could further influence overhang volume, though the core mechanics of Berlin’s mixed-member system remain the primary variable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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