**Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80% probability to exactly three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting two confirmed primary defeats and expectations of one more.** Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas have already lost to challengers, including Trump-endorsed candidates such as Julia Letlow and Ken Paxton. These outcomes align with broader primary dynamics where established senators faced intra-party opposition over policy and endorsements. Additional contests, including Lindsey Graham’s South Carolina primary, have produced wins for incumbents despite notable challengers, while several other Republican-held seats feature limited or no serious primary opposition. Retirements and open-seat races do not factor into the count. Recent primary results from May through mid-August have stabilized the market around three losses, with the remaining probability spread across two or four defeats depending on any late-cycle developments before all relevant primaries conclude.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado3 79.3%
4 10.9%
>4 7.9%
2 7.6%
$54,557 Vol.
$54,557 Vol.
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
8%
3
79%
4
11%
>4
6%
3 79.3%
4 10.9%
>4 7.9%
2 7.6%
$54,557 Vol.
$54,557 Vol.
0
$4,201 Vol.
<1%
1
$3,323 Vol.
<1%
2
$30,714 Vol.
8%
3
$7,778 Vol.
79%
4
$4,541 Vol.
11%
>4
$4,000 Vol.
6%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80% probability to exactly three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting two confirmed primary defeats and expectations of one more.** Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas have already lost to challengers, including Trump-endorsed candidates such as Julia Letlow and Ken Paxton. These outcomes align with broader primary dynamics where established senators faced intra-party opposition over policy and endorsements.
Additional contests, including Lindsey Graham’s South Carolina primary, have produced wins for incumbents despite notable challengers, while several other Republican-held seats feature limited or no serious primary opposition. Retirements and open-seat races do not factor into the count. Recent primary results from May through mid-August have stabilized the market around three losses, with the remaining probability spread across two or four defeats depending on any late-cycle developments before all relevant primaries conclude.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$54,557Mercado Aberto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80% probability to exactly three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting two confirmed primary defeats and expectations of one more.** Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas have already lost to challengers, including Trump-endorsed candidates such as Julia Letlow and Ken Paxton. These outcomes align with broader primary dynamics where established senators faced intra-party opposition over policy and endorsements.
Additional contests, including Lindsey Graham’s South Carolina primary, have produced wins for incumbents despite notable challengers, while several other Republican-held seats feature limited or no serious primary opposition. Retirements and open-seat races do not factor into the count. Recent primary results from May through mid-August have stabilized the market around three losses, with the remaining probability spread across two or four defeats depending on any late-cycle developments before all relevant primaries conclude.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$54,557Mercado Aberto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
**Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80% probability to exactly three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting two confirmed primary defeats and expectations of one more.** Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas have already lost to challengers, including Trump-endorsed candidates such as Julia Letlow and Ken Paxton. These outcomes align with broader primary dynamics where established senators faced intra-party opposition over policy and endorsements. Additional contests, including Lindsey Graham’s South Carolina primary, have produced wins for incumbents despite notable challengers, while several other Republican-held seats feature limited or no serious primary opposition. Retirements and open-seat races do not factor into the count. Recent primary results from May through mid-August have stabilized the market around three losses, with the remaining probability spread across two or four defeats depending on any late-cycle developments before all relevant primaries conclude.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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Frequently Asked Questions