**Trader consensus heavily favors three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting confirmed primary defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, alongside a third upset driven by coordinated challenges.** These outcomes stem from intra-party competition, including Trump-endorsed contenders capitalizing on base dissatisfaction with longer-serving senators and occasional bipartisan records. Most other Republican incumbents seeking reelection, such as those in Kansas, Tennessee, and Wyoming, encountered limited or no serious opposition, aligning with historical patterns where Senate primaries rarely produce widespread defeats absent major national intervention or scandals. Primary season is largely complete, leaving little room for additional losses before resolution. A shift away from three would require an unexpected upset in a remaining contest or reclassification of a withdrawal, though such developments appear improbable given current filing and polling data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado3 93.5%
2 6.4%
0 <1%
4 <1%
$75,434 Vol.
$75,434 Vol.
0
<1%
2
6%
3
94%
4
<1%
>4
<1%
3 93.5%
2 6.4%
0 <1%
4 <1%
$75,434 Vol.
$75,434 Vol.
0
$4,221 Vol.
<1%
2
$39,226 Vol.
6%
3
$16,999 Vol.
94%
4
$6,571 Vol.
<1%
>4
$4,094 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting confirmed primary defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, alongside a third upset driven by coordinated challenges.** These outcomes stem from intra-party competition, including Trump-endorsed contenders capitalizing on base dissatisfaction with longer-serving senators and occasional bipartisan records. Most other Republican incumbents seeking reelection, such as those in Kansas, Tennessee, and Wyoming, encountered limited or no serious opposition, aligning with historical patterns where Senate primaries rarely produce widespread defeats absent major national intervention or scandals. Primary season is largely complete, leaving little room for additional losses before resolution.
A shift away from three would require an unexpected upset in a remaining contest or reclassification of a withdrawal, though such developments appear improbable given current filing and polling data.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$75,434Mercado Aberto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting confirmed primary defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, alongside a third upset driven by coordinated challenges.** These outcomes stem from intra-party competition, including Trump-endorsed contenders capitalizing on base dissatisfaction with longer-serving senators and occasional bipartisan records. Most other Republican incumbents seeking reelection, such as those in Kansas, Tennessee, and Wyoming, encountered limited or no serious opposition, aligning with historical patterns where Senate primaries rarely produce widespread defeats absent major national intervention or scandals. Primary season is largely complete, leaving little room for additional losses before resolution.
A shift away from three would require an unexpected upset in a remaining contest or reclassification of a withdrawal, though such developments appear improbable given current filing and polling data.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$75,434Mercado Aberto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
**Trader consensus heavily favors three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting confirmed primary defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, alongside a third upset driven by coordinated challenges.** These outcomes stem from intra-party competition, including Trump-endorsed contenders capitalizing on base dissatisfaction with longer-serving senators and occasional bipartisan records. Most other Republican incumbents seeking reelection, such as those in Kansas, Tennessee, and Wyoming, encountered limited or no serious opposition, aligning with historical patterns where Senate primaries rarely produce widespread defeats absent major national intervention or scandals. Primary season is largely complete, leaving little room for additional losses before resolution. A shift away from three would require an unexpected upset in a remaining contest or reclassification of a withdrawal, though such developments appear improbable given current filing and polling data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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Deputados republicanos em exercício não vencerão entre quatro e seis eleições de nomeação no ciclo de 2026?
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O Partido Republicano terá exatamente 22 ou 23 governos estaduais após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?
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Frequently Asked Questions