Two Republican Senate incumbents—John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana—lost renomination after facing strong primary challenges from Trump-aligned candidates, including Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Julia Letlow, driven by intraparty tensions over past votes and policy stances. Trader consensus prices 2 outcomes at 82% because most other GOP incumbents, including Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, advanced or face limited opposition amid retirements such as Joni Ernst in Iowa and Thom Tillis in North Carolina that reduced the total pool at risk. A modest probability for 3 reflects lingering uncertainty around any additional contests still unresolved or close races that could produce one more upset before primary season concludes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado2 53.4%
1 <1%
0 <1%
4 <1%
$30,703 Vol.
$30,703 Vol.
0
<1%
1
1%
2
53%
3
41%
4
<1%
>4
<1%
2 53.4%
1 <1%
0 <1%
4 <1%
$30,703 Vol.
$30,703 Vol.
0
$4,131 Vol.
<1%
1
$2,732 Vol.
1%
2
$14,426 Vol.
53%
3
$3,438 Vol.
41%
4
$2,781 Vol.
<1%
>4
$3,195 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Two Republican Senate incumbents—John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana—lost renomination after facing strong primary challenges from Trump-aligned candidates, including Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Julia Letlow, driven by intraparty tensions over past votes and policy stances. Trader consensus prices 2 outcomes at 82% because most other GOP incumbents, including Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, advanced or face limited opposition amid retirements such as Joni Ernst in Iowa and Thom Tillis in North Carolina that reduced the total pool at risk. A modest probability for 3 reflects lingering uncertainty around any additional contests still unresolved or close races that could produce one more upset before primary season concludes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$30,703Mercado Aberto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Two Republican Senate incumbents—John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana—lost renomination after facing strong primary challenges from Trump-aligned candidates, including Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Julia Letlow, driven by intraparty tensions over past votes and policy stances. Trader consensus prices 2 outcomes at 82% because most other GOP incumbents, including Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, advanced or face limited opposition amid retirements such as Joni Ernst in Iowa and Thom Tillis in North Carolina that reduced the total pool at risk. A modest probability for 3 reflects lingering uncertainty around any additional contests still unresolved or close races that could produce one more upset before primary season concludes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$30,703Mercado Aberto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Two Republican Senate incumbents—John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana—lost renomination after facing strong primary challenges from Trump-aligned candidates, including Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Julia Letlow, driven by intraparty tensions over past votes and policy stances. Trader consensus prices 2 outcomes at 82% because most other GOP incumbents, including Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, advanced or face limited opposition amid retirements such as Joni Ernst in Iowa and Thom Tillis in North Carolina that reduced the total pool at risk. A modest probability for 3 reflects lingering uncertainty around any additional contests still unresolved or close races that could produce one more upset before primary season concludes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
65%
Deputados republicanos em exercício não vencerão entre quatro e seis eleições de nomeação no ciclo de 2026?
66%
Sim
Os atuais deputados democratas não vencerão entre treze e quinze eleições de nomeação no ciclo de 2026?
45%
Sim
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions