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icon for Tongatapu 2 Vencedor por Eleição
Mundo·Tonga

Tongatapu 2 Vencedor por Eleição

icon for Tongatapu 2 Vencedor por Eleição
Mundo·Tonga

Tongatapu 2 Vencedor por Eleição

Alvin Lafu Sika 31%

Sione Harvard Tupouniua 28%

Lei Paasi 26%

Mounu Uaisele 25%

Polymarket
NOVO

Alvin Lafu Sika 31%

Sione Harvard Tupouniua 28%

Lei Paasi 26%

Mounu Uaisele 25%

Polymarket
NOVO

Alvin Lafu Sika

$29 Vol.

31%

Sione Harvard Tupouniua

$29 Vol.

28%

Lei Paasi

$29 Vol.

26%

Mounu Uaisele

$29 Vol.

25%

'Olioni Manoa

$29 Vol.

24%

Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi

$29 Vol.

23%

Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki

$29 Vol.

23%

'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila

$29 Vol.

22%

Samiuela Vea

$29 Vol.

21%

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The Tongatapu 2 by-election, set for 8 October 2026, features nine registered candidates after the Supreme Court upheld bribery and campaign spending convictions against the 2025 winner Semisi Sika, vacating the seat and barring him from contesting for five years. Trader prices reflect a fragmented field, with Sione Harvard Tupouniua, ‘Olioni Manoa, ‘Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila, and Malakai Koloamatangi clustered near the top amid low differentiation in early positioning. Recent withdrawals by three prospective entrants to consolidate behind Koloamatangi, combined with three women candidates and the absence of the prior runner-up, have kept implied probabilities tightly bunched. No public polling or major endorsements have yet emerged to separate contenders ahead of the vote, leaving outcomes dependent on local turnout patterns and last-minute alliances in the single-member constituency.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Volume
$262
Data de Término
8 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The Tongatapu 2 by-election, set for 8 October 2026, features nine registered candidates after the Supreme Court upheld bribery and campaign spending convictions against the 2025 winner Semisi Sika, vacating the seat and barring him from contesting for five years. Trader prices reflect a fragmented field, with Sione Harvard Tupouniua, ‘Olioni Manoa, ‘Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila, and Malakai Koloamatangi clustered near the top amid low differentiation in early positioning. Recent withdrawals by three prospective entrants to consolidate behind Koloamatangi, combined with three women candidates and the absence of the prior runner-up, have kept implied probabilities tightly bunched. No public polling or major endorsements have yet emerged to separate contenders ahead of the vote, leaving outcomes dependent on local turnout patterns and last-minute alliances in the single-member constituency.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Volume
$262
Data de Término
8 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Tongatapu 2 Vencedor por Eleição" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Alvin Lafu Sika" at 31%, followed by "Sione Harvard Tupouniua" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Tongatapu 2 Vencedor por Eleição" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Tongatapu 2 Vencedor por Eleição," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Tongatapu 2 Vencedor por Eleição" is "Alvin Lafu Sika" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sione Harvard Tupouniua" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Tongatapu 2 Vencedor por Eleição" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.