Incumbent Democrat Ritchie Torres secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote, facing only nominal Republican opposition in the general election from Stylo Sapaskis. NY-15's consistent Democratic performance, including large margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current odds. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic, with projections showing a wide vote share advantage for the incumbent. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge before November 3, though historical patterns and the district's makeup make such developments improbable drivers of change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-15 House Election Winner
NY-15 House Election Winner
$46,414 Vol.
$46,414 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
<1%
$46,414 Vol.
$46,414 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$27,077 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$19,338 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ritchie Torres secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote, facing only nominal Republican opposition in the general election from Stylo Sapaskis. NY-15's consistent Democratic performance, including large margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current odds. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic, with projections showing a wide vote share advantage for the incumbent. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge before November 3, though historical patterns and the district's makeup make such developments improbable drivers of change.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$46,414End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ritchie Torres secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote, facing only nominal Republican opposition in the general election from Stylo Sapaskis. NY-15's consistent Democratic performance, including large margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current odds. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic, with projections showing a wide vote share advantage for the incumbent. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge before November 3, though historical patterns and the district's makeup make such developments improbable drivers of change.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,414End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ritchie Torres secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote, facing only nominal Republican opposition in the general election from Stylo Sapaskis. NY-15's consistent Democratic performance, including large margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current odds. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic, with projections showing a wide vote share advantage for the incumbent. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge before November 3, though historical patterns and the district's makeup make such developments improbable drivers of change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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