The heavily Democratic lean of New York’s 15th congressional district in the Bronx, combined with incumbent Ritchie Torres’s strong position heading into the June 23 Democratic primary, underpins the 94 percent trader consensus for a Democratic general-election victory on November 3. Torres holds a wide lead in primary fundraising and name recognition against challengers including Michael Blake and Jose Vega, while the Republican nominee advanced unopposed after the primary was canceled. The district’s voter enrollment and past results show consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70 points in recent cycles. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unforeseen primary upset, late-breaking scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout, though structural factors continue to favor the party’s nominee advancing to the general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-15
Vainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-15
$23,533 Vol.
$23,533 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
4%
$23,533 Vol.
$23,533 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$11,802 Vol.
94%
Parti républicain
$11,731 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of New York’s 15th congressional district in the Bronx, combined with incumbent Ritchie Torres’s strong position heading into the June 23 Democratic primary, underpins the 94 percent trader consensus for a Democratic general-election victory on November 3. Torres holds a wide lead in primary fundraising and name recognition against challengers including Michael Blake and Jose Vega, while the Republican nominee advanced unopposed after the primary was canceled. The district’s voter enrollment and past results show consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70 points in recent cycles. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unforeseen primary upset, late-breaking scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout, though structural factors continue to favor the party’s nominee advancing to the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$23,533Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of New York’s 15th congressional district in the Bronx, combined with incumbent Ritchie Torres’s strong position heading into the June 23 Democratic primary, underpins the 94 percent trader consensus for a Democratic general-election victory on November 3. Torres holds a wide lead in primary fundraising and name recognition against challengers including Michael Blake and Jose Vega, while the Republican nominee advanced unopposed after the primary was canceled. The district’s voter enrollment and past results show consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70 points in recent cycles. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unforeseen primary upset, late-breaking scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout, though structural factors continue to favor the party’s nominee advancing to the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,533Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic lean of New York’s 15th congressional district in the Bronx, combined with incumbent Ritchie Torres’s strong position heading into the June 23 Democratic primary, underpins the 94 percent trader consensus for a Democratic general-election victory on November 3. Torres holds a wide lead in primary fundraising and name recognition against challengers including Michael Blake and Jose Vega, while the Republican nominee advanced unopposed after the primary was canceled. The district’s voter enrollment and past results show consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70 points in recent cycles. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unforeseen primary upset, late-breaking scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout, though structural factors continue to favor the party’s nominee advancing to the general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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