NY-15 remains a solidly Democratic seat, reflected in trader consensus assigning the party a 95% implied probability of holding the House seat in the November 2026 general election. The Bronx-based district's partisan composition, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+25, combined with incumbent Ritchie Torres's established fundraising edge and primary dominance ahead of the June 23 Democratic contest, underpins the positioning. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic based on consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national wave or localized disruption exceeding typical midterm dynamics. Potential shifts could stem from primary surprises, candidate-specific developments, or broader turnout changes, though structural factors limit realistic near-term movement in the odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,522 交易量
$23,522 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$23,522 交易量
$23,522 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$11,791 交易量
95%
共和党
$11,731 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-15 remains a solidly Democratic seat, reflected in trader consensus assigning the party a 95% implied probability of holding the House seat in the November 2026 general election. The Bronx-based district's partisan composition, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+25, combined with incumbent Ritchie Torres's established fundraising edge and primary dominance ahead of the June 23 Democratic contest, underpins the positioning. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic based on consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national wave or localized disruption exceeding typical midterm dynamics. Potential shifts could stem from primary surprises, candidate-specific developments, or broader turnout changes, though structural factors limit realistic near-term movement in the odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$23,522结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-15 remains a solidly Democratic seat, reflected in trader consensus assigning the party a 95% implied probability of holding the House seat in the November 2026 general election. The Bronx-based district's partisan composition, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+25, combined with incumbent Ritchie Torres's established fundraising edge and primary dominance ahead of the June 23 Democratic contest, underpins the positioning. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic based on consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national wave or localized disruption exceeding typical midterm dynamics. Potential shifts could stem from primary surprises, candidate-specific developments, or broader turnout changes, though structural factors limit realistic near-term movement in the odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,522结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NY-15 remains a solidly Democratic seat, reflected in trader consensus assigning the party a 95% implied probability of holding the House seat in the November 2026 general election. The Bronx-based district's partisan composition, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+25, combined with incumbent Ritchie Torres's established fundraising edge and primary dominance ahead of the June 23 Democratic contest, underpins the positioning. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic based on consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national wave or localized disruption exceeding typical midterm dynamics. Potential shifts could stem from primary surprises, candidate-specific developments, or broader turnout changes, though structural factors limit realistic near-term movement in the odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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