Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey holds a commanding position in the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary, with recent UMass/WCVB and Suffolk University polls showing leads of 14–28 points over Rep. Seth Moulton among likely voters. High job approval ratings near 82 percent, combined with voter emphasis on experience and trust, have widened Markey’s advantage in the final stretch before the September 1 contest. Moulton has focused on generational turnover and age limits, yet polling trends and the last pre-primary debate indicate limited traction among the progressive-leaning electorate. Traders price the 15–30 point Markey victory range as the most probable outcome while assigning substantial weight to “Other” scenarios, reflecting uncertainty around final turnout and any late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMassachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Markey 25–30% 32%
Markey 20–25% 32%
Markey 15–20% 31%
Markey 10–15% 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
Markey 40%+
23%
Markey 35–40%
23%
Markey 30–35%
26%
Markey 25–30%
32%
Markey 20–25%
32%
Markey 15–20%
31%
Markey 10–15%
29%
Markey 5–10%
21%
Markey <5%
21%
Moulton <5%
24%
Moulton 5%+
10%
Markey 25–30% 32%
Markey 20–25% 32%
Markey 15–20% 31%
Markey 10–15% 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
Markey 40%+
$16 Vol.
23%
Markey 35–40%
$16 Vol.
23%
Markey 30–35%
$16 Vol.
26%
Markey 25–30%
$16 Vol.
32%
Markey 20–25%
$16 Vol.
32%
Markey 15–20%
$16 Vol.
31%
Markey 10–15%
$16 Vol.
29%
Markey 5–10%
$16 Vol.
21%
Markey <5%
$16 Vol.
21%
Moulton <5%
$16 Vol.
24%
Moulton 5%+
$101 Vol.
10%
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey holds a commanding position in the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary, with recent UMass/WCVB and Suffolk University polls showing leads of 14–28 points over Rep. Seth Moulton among likely voters. High job approval ratings near 82 percent, combined with voter emphasis on experience and trust, have widened Markey’s advantage in the final stretch before the September 1 contest. Moulton has focused on generational turnover and age limits, yet polling trends and the last pre-primary debate indicate limited traction among the progressive-leaning electorate. Traders price the 15–30 point Markey victory range as the most probable outcome while assigning substantial weight to “Other” scenarios, reflecting uncertainty around final turnout and any late shifts.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$261End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey holds a commanding position in the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary, with recent UMass/WCVB and Suffolk University polls showing leads of 14–28 points over Rep. Seth Moulton among likely voters. High job approval ratings near 82 percent, combined with voter emphasis on experience and trust, have widened Markey’s advantage in the final stretch before the September 1 contest. Moulton has focused on generational turnover and age limits, yet polling trends and the last pre-primary debate indicate limited traction among the progressive-leaning electorate. Traders price the 15–30 point Markey victory range as the most probable outcome while assigning substantial weight to “Other” scenarios, reflecting uncertainty around final turnout and any late shifts.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$261End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey holds a commanding position in the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary, with recent UMass/WCVB and Suffolk University polls showing leads of 14–28 points over Rep. Seth Moulton among likely voters. High job approval ratings near 82 percent, combined with voter emphasis on experience and trust, have widened Markey’s advantage in the final stretch before the September 1 contest. Moulton has focused on generational turnover and age limits, yet polling trends and the last pre-primary debate indicate limited traction among the progressive-leaning electorate. Traders price the 15–30 point Markey victory range as the most probable outcome while assigning substantial weight to “Other” scenarios, reflecting uncertainty around final turnout and any late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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