Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have cleared their primaries without defeat, consistent with the market's 99.4% price on zero losses. Most seats held by retiring Democrats shifted to open contests, while those with incumbents—such as Chris Coons in Delaware, Edward Markey in Massachusetts, and Jack Reed in Rhode Island—featured long-shot or generational challengers who failed to advance. Primary outcomes reflected standard advantages in fundraising, endorsements from party organizations, and voter familiarity, even amid broader intra-party tensions over strategy and ideology in the cycle. Remaining or recently completed races show no evidence of viable upsets. A surprise defeat would require an unforeseen late development, such as a major scandal or turnout anomaly in an uncalled contest, though historical patterns and completed results make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
0 100.0%
1 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$33,967 Vol.
$33,967 Vol.
0
Yes
1
No
2
No
3
No
4
No
>4
No
0 100.0%
1 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$33,967 Vol.
$33,967 Vol.
0
$11,635 Vol.
Yes
1
$4,023 Vol.
No
2
$1,707 Vol.
No
3
$2,964 Vol.
No
4
$6,786 Vol.
No
>4
$6,852 Vol.
No
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have cleared their primaries without defeat, consistent with the market's 99.4% price on zero losses. Most seats held by retiring Democrats shifted to open contests, while those with incumbents—such as Chris Coons in Delaware, Edward Markey in Massachusetts, and Jack Reed in Rhode Island—featured long-shot or generational challengers who failed to advance. Primary outcomes reflected standard advantages in fundraising, endorsements from party organizations, and voter familiarity, even amid broader intra-party tensions over strategy and ideology in the cycle. Remaining or recently completed races show no evidence of viable upsets. A surprise defeat would require an unforeseen late development, such as a major scandal or turnout anomaly in an uncalled contest, though historical patterns and completed results make such shifts improbable.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Market Opened: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volume
$33,967Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have cleared their primaries without defeat, consistent with the market's 99.4% price on zero losses. Most seats held by retiring Democrats shifted to open contests, while those with incumbents—such as Chris Coons in Delaware, Edward Markey in Massachusetts, and Jack Reed in Rhode Island—featured long-shot or generational challengers who failed to advance. Primary outcomes reflected standard advantages in fundraising, endorsements from party organizations, and voter familiarity, even amid broader intra-party tensions over strategy and ideology in the cycle. Remaining or recently completed races show no evidence of viable upsets. A surprise defeat would require an unforeseen late development, such as a major scandal or turnout anomaly in an uncalled contest, though historical patterns and completed results make such shifts improbable.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$33,967Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have cleared their primaries without defeat, consistent with the market's 99.4% price on zero losses. Most seats held by retiring Democrats shifted to open contests, while those with incumbents—such as Chris Coons in Delaware, Edward Markey in Massachusetts, and Jack Reed in Rhode Island—featured long-shot or generational challengers who failed to advance. Primary outcomes reflected standard advantages in fundraising, endorsements from party organizations, and voter familiarity, even amid broader intra-party tensions over strategy and ideology in the cycle. Remaining or recently completed races show no evidence of viable upsets. A surprise defeat would require an unforeseen late development, such as a major scandal or turnout anomaly in an uncalled contest, though historical patterns and completed results make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
86%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
97%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
28%
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