Currently, Republicans hold 26 governorships to Democrats’ 24 ahead of the 36 races on the 2026 ballot, an even split of 18 seats per party. Traders see the narrowest bands around 22–25 Republican governors because most contests remain anchored by incumbency advantages and state-level fundamentals, with only a handful rated as true toss-ups. Defenses in New Hampshire and Vermont, both carried by Harris in 2024, represent the clearest Democratic pickup opportunities, while several open Democratic seats create offsetting Republican chances. Recent candidate filings, early fundraising reports, and limited polling have not yet produced decisive shifts, leaving the map balanced. Late-cycle developments such as national economic conditions, primary outcomes in competitive states, or unexpected retirements could widen the range by altering turnout or candidate quality in the handful of battlegrounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated22–23 31%
24–25 29%
26–27 20%
<22 18%
$684,025 Vol.
$684,025 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
<22
18%
22–23
31%
24–25
29%
26–27
20%
28–29
4%
30–31
1%
32+
<1%
22–23 31%
24–25 29%
26–27 20%
<22 18%
$684,025 Vol.
$684,025 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
<22
$47,132 Vol.
18%
22–23
$8,605 Vol.
31%
24–25
$31,801 Vol.
29%
26–27
$17,031 Vol.
20%
28–29
$557,433 Vol.
4%
30–31
$7,584 Vol.
1%
32+
$14,438 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Currently, Republicans hold 26 governorships to Democrats’ 24 ahead of the 36 races on the 2026 ballot, an even split of 18 seats per party. Traders see the narrowest bands around 22–25 Republican governors because most contests remain anchored by incumbency advantages and state-level fundamentals, with only a handful rated as true toss-ups. Defenses in New Hampshire and Vermont, both carried by Harris in 2024, represent the clearest Democratic pickup opportunities, while several open Democratic seats create offsetting Republican chances. Recent candidate filings, early fundraising reports, and limited polling have not yet produced decisive shifts, leaving the map balanced. Late-cycle developments such as national economic conditions, primary outcomes in competitive states, or unexpected retirements could widen the range by altering turnout or candidate quality in the handful of battlegrounds.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ET
Volume
$684,025End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Currently, Republicans hold 26 governorships to Democrats’ 24 ahead of the 36 races on the 2026 ballot, an even split of 18 seats per party. Traders see the narrowest bands around 22–25 Republican governors because most contests remain anchored by incumbency advantages and state-level fundamentals, with only a handful rated as true toss-ups. Defenses in New Hampshire and Vermont, both carried by Harris in 2024, represent the clearest Democratic pickup opportunities, while several open Democratic seats create offsetting Republican chances. Recent candidate filings, early fundraising reports, and limited polling have not yet produced decisive shifts, leaving the map balanced. Late-cycle developments such as national economic conditions, primary outcomes in competitive states, or unexpected retirements could widen the range by altering turnout or candidate quality in the handful of battlegrounds.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$684,025End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Currently, Republicans hold 26 governorships to Democrats’ 24 ahead of the 36 races on the 2026 ballot, an even split of 18 seats per party. Traders see the narrowest bands around 22–25 Republican governors because most contests remain anchored by incumbency advantages and state-level fundamentals, with only a handful rated as true toss-ups. Defenses in New Hampshire and Vermont, both carried by Harris in 2024, represent the clearest Democratic pickup opportunities, while several open Democratic seats create offsetting Republican chances. Recent candidate filings, early fundraising reports, and limited polling have not yet produced decisive shifts, leaving the map balanced. Late-cycle developments such as national economic conditions, primary outcomes in competitive states, or unexpected retirements could widen the range by altering turnout or candidate quality in the handful of battlegrounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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