The tight clustering around 22–25 Republican governors reflects a balanced set of 2026 races where Republicans defend several open seats created by term limits while Democrats face similar exposure in states with retiring incumbents. Primary outcomes and candidate recruitment in key battlegrounds have kept implied probabilities close, with limited net shifts from baseline expectations. Upcoming general-election polling, special factors such as redistricting effects on turnout, and any late candidate withdrawals or scandals could widen or narrow the range by altering competitive margins in a handful of states. Historical midterm patterns show modest average changes in gubernatorial control, contributing to the current market equilibrium.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated22–23 31%
24–25 29%
26–27 20%
<22 18%
$684,025 Vol.
$684,025 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
<22
18%
22–23
31%
24–25
29%
26–27
20%
28–29
4%
30–31
1%
32+
<1%
22–23 31%
24–25 29%
26–27 20%
<22 18%
$684,025 Vol.
$684,025 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
<22
$47,132 Vol.
18%
22–23
$8,605 Vol.
31%
24–25
$31,801 Vol.
29%
26–27
$17,031 Vol.
20%
28–29
$557,433 Vol.
4%
30–31
$7,584 Vol.
1%
32+
$14,438 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.The tight clustering around 22–25 Republican governors reflects a balanced set of 2026 races where Republicans defend several open seats created by term limits while Democrats face similar exposure in states with retiring incumbents. Primary outcomes and candidate recruitment in key battlegrounds have kept implied probabilities close, with limited net shifts from baseline expectations. Upcoming general-election polling, special factors such as redistricting effects on turnout, and any late candidate withdrawals or scandals could widen or narrow the range by altering competitive margins in a handful of states. Historical midterm patterns show modest average changes in gubernatorial control, contributing to the current market equilibrium.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ET
Volume
$684,025End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.The tight clustering around 22–25 Republican governors reflects a balanced set of 2026 races where Republicans defend several open seats created by term limits while Democrats face similar exposure in states with retiring incumbents. Primary outcomes and candidate recruitment in key battlegrounds have kept implied probabilities close, with limited net shifts from baseline expectations. Upcoming general-election polling, special factors such as redistricting effects on turnout, and any late candidate withdrawals or scandals could widen or narrow the range by altering competitive margins in a handful of states. Historical midterm patterns show modest average changes in gubernatorial control, contributing to the current market equilibrium.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$684,025End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The tight clustering around 22–25 Republican governors reflects a balanced set of 2026 races where Republicans defend several open seats created by term limits while Democrats face similar exposure in states with retiring incumbents. Primary outcomes and candidate recruitment in key battlegrounds have kept implied probabilities close, with limited net shifts from baseline expectations. Upcoming general-election polling, special factors such as redistricting effects on turnout, and any late candidate withdrawals or scandals could widen or narrow the range by altering competitive margins in a handful of states. Historical midterm patterns show modest average changes in gubernatorial control, contributing to the current market equilibrium.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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