Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority of roughly 218-220 seats entering the 2026 midterms. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections project Democratic net gains of 15-25 seats, driven by the typical midterm penalty for the president’s party, generic ballot leads for Democrats of 5-8 points, and President Trump’s approval ratings in the mid-to-low 30s. Redistricting in states such as Texas, Florida, and Missouri has created a modest Republican firewall that narrows the expected loss range but has not reversed the overall environment. Recent rating shifts have moved additional competitive districts toward Democrats, while special election results and primary turnout patterns reinforce the same directional pressure. Trader pricing, with the highest probabilities clustered between 190-199 Republican seats, reflects this consensus on a sizable but contained setback rather than a historic wipeout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBelow 190 25%
195-199 20%
190-194 16%
205-209 12.4%
$295,954 Vol.
$295,954 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Below 190
25%
190-194
16%
195-199
20%
200-204
11%
205-209
12%
210-214
11%
215-219
8%
220-224
4%
225-229
4%
230+
3%
Below 190 25%
195-199 20%
190-194 16%
205-209 12.4%
$295,954 Vol.
$295,954 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Below 190
$36,648 Vol.
25%
190-194
$14,719 Vol.
16%
195-199
$33,423 Vol.
20%
200-204
$25,920 Vol.
11%
205-209
$41,307 Vol.
12%
210-214
$16,066 Vol.
11%
215-219
$11,805 Vol.
8%
220-224
$59,652 Vol.
4%
225-229
$24,974 Vol.
4%
230+
$31,439 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority of roughly 218-220 seats entering the 2026 midterms. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections project Democratic net gains of 15-25 seats, driven by the typical midterm penalty for the president’s party, generic ballot leads for Democrats of 5-8 points, and President Trump’s approval ratings in the mid-to-low 30s. Redistricting in states such as Texas, Florida, and Missouri has created a modest Republican firewall that narrows the expected loss range but has not reversed the overall environment. Recent rating shifts have moved additional competitive districts toward Democrats, while special election results and primary turnout patterns reinforce the same directional pressure. Trader pricing, with the highest probabilities clustered between 190-199 Republican seats, reflects this consensus on a sizable but contained setback rather than a historic wipeout.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$295,954End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority of roughly 218-220 seats entering the 2026 midterms. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections project Democratic net gains of 15-25 seats, driven by the typical midterm penalty for the president’s party, generic ballot leads for Democrats of 5-8 points, and President Trump’s approval ratings in the mid-to-low 30s. Redistricting in states such as Texas, Florida, and Missouri has created a modest Republican firewall that narrows the expected loss range but has not reversed the overall environment. Recent rating shifts have moved additional competitive districts toward Democrats, while special election results and primary turnout patterns reinforce the same directional pressure. Trader pricing, with the highest probabilities clustered between 190-199 Republican seats, reflects this consensus on a sizable but contained setback rather than a historic wipeout.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$295,954End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority of roughly 218-220 seats entering the 2026 midterms. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections project Democratic net gains of 15-25 seats, driven by the typical midterm penalty for the president’s party, generic ballot leads for Democrats of 5-8 points, and President Trump’s approval ratings in the mid-to-low 30s. Redistricting in states such as Texas, Florida, and Missouri has created a modest Republican firewall that narrows the expected loss range but has not reversed the overall environment. Recent rating shifts have moved additional competitive districts toward Democrats, while special election results and primary turnout patterns reinforce the same directional pressure. Trader pricing, with the highest probabilities clustered between 190-199 Republican seats, reflects this consensus on a sizable but contained setback rather than a historic wipeout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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