Recent national polls and aggregators, including those from Silver Bulletin, RealClearPolitics, and the New York Times through early September 2026, have placed President Trump’s job approval in the mid-to-high 30s. This positioning reflects sustained public dissatisfaction with economic conditions and the handling of the Iran conflict, which has contributed to elevated energy prices and cost-of-living pressures. Trader consensus around the 38.0–38.4 range aligns with these stable polling trends, as no major policy announcements, economic releases, or diplomatic breakthroughs have shifted sentiment sharply in the immediate run-up to September 18. Historical patterns for second-term presidents facing similar headwinds on foreign policy and inflation further support the narrow band of likely outcomes currently priced by the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated38.0–38.4 35%
38.5–38.9 27%
37.5–37.9 27%
39.0+ 9.4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
<37.0
5%
37.0–37.4
7%
37.5–37.9
27%
38.0–38.4
35%
38.5–38.9
27%
39.0+
9%
38.0–38.4 35%
38.5–38.9 27%
37.5–37.9 27%
39.0+ 9.4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
<37.0
$63 Vol.
5%
37.0–37.4
$94 Vol.
7%
37.5–37.9
$24 Vol.
27%
38.0–38.4
$144 Vol.
35%
38.5–38.9
$136 Vol.
27%
39.0+
$129 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on September 18, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent national polls and aggregators, including those from Silver Bulletin, RealClearPolitics, and the New York Times through early September 2026, have placed President Trump’s job approval in the mid-to-high 30s. This positioning reflects sustained public dissatisfaction with economic conditions and the handling of the Iran conflict, which has contributed to elevated energy prices and cost-of-living pressures. Trader consensus around the 38.0–38.4 range aligns with these stable polling trends, as no major policy announcements, economic releases, or diplomatic breakthroughs have shifted sentiment sharply in the immediate run-up to September 18. Historical patterns for second-term presidents facing similar headwinds on foreign policy and inflation further support the narrow band of likely outcomes currently priced by the market.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on September 18, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$588End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on September 18, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent national polls and aggregators, including those from Silver Bulletin, RealClearPolitics, and the New York Times through early September 2026, have placed President Trump’s job approval in the mid-to-high 30s. This positioning reflects sustained public dissatisfaction with economic conditions and the handling of the Iran conflict, which has contributed to elevated energy prices and cost-of-living pressures. Trader consensus around the 38.0–38.4 range aligns with these stable polling trends, as no major policy announcements, economic releases, or diplomatic breakthroughs have shifted sentiment sharply in the immediate run-up to September 18. Historical patterns for second-term presidents facing similar headwinds on foreign policy and inflation further support the narrow band of likely outcomes currently priced by the market.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on September 18, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$588End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent national polls and aggregators, including those from Silver Bulletin, RealClearPolitics, and the New York Times through early September 2026, have placed President Trump’s job approval in the mid-to-high 30s. This positioning reflects sustained public dissatisfaction with economic conditions and the handling of the Iran conflict, which has contributed to elevated energy prices and cost-of-living pressures. Trader consensus around the 38.0–38.4 range aligns with these stable polling trends, as no major policy announcements, economic releases, or diplomatic breakthroughs have shifted sentiment sharply in the immediate run-up to September 18. Historical patterns for second-term presidents facing similar headwinds on foreign policy and inflation further support the narrow band of likely outcomes currently priced by the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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