Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a clear lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026, Bahia gubernatorial election due to his structural advantages as sitting governor, including a reported approval rating near 56 percent and continued influence from the long-standing PT machine in the state. Recent polling from April and May 2026 has shown a technical tie or narrow edges for challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in some surveys, reflecting Neto’s strength among independents and right-leaning voters amid his alignment with national opposition figures. However, Rodrigues has narrowed those gaps as his approval stabilized, while other candidates remain marginal. The contest is viewed as a rematch of the 2022 runoff, with national political realignments and local alliances likely to shape first-round dynamics and any potential second-round runoff on October 25.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJerônimo Rodrigues 64%
ACM Neto 37%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
João Roma <1%
$26,216 Vol.
$26,216 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
64%
ACM Neto
37%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 64%
ACM Neto 37%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
João Roma <1%
$26,216 Vol.
$26,216 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$8,781 Vol.
64%
ACM Neto
$6,975 Vol.
37%
José Carlos Aleluia
$3,226 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$1,638 Vol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$2,069 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,732 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,796 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a clear lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026, Bahia gubernatorial election due to his structural advantages as sitting governor, including a reported approval rating near 56 percent and continued influence from the long-standing PT machine in the state. Recent polling from April and May 2026 has shown a technical tie or narrow edges for challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in some surveys, reflecting Neto’s strength among independents and right-leaning voters amid his alignment with national opposition figures. However, Rodrigues has narrowed those gaps as his approval stabilized, while other candidates remain marginal. The contest is viewed as a rematch of the 2022 runoff, with national political realignments and local alliances likely to shape first-round dynamics and any potential second-round runoff on October 25.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$26,216Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a clear lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026, Bahia gubernatorial election due to his structural advantages as sitting governor, including a reported approval rating near 56 percent and continued influence from the long-standing PT machine in the state. Recent polling from April and May 2026 has shown a technical tie or narrow edges for challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in some surveys, reflecting Neto’s strength among independents and right-leaning voters amid his alignment with national opposition figures. However, Rodrigues has narrowed those gaps as his approval stabilized, while other candidates remain marginal. The contest is viewed as a rematch of the 2022 runoff, with national political realignments and local alliances likely to shape first-round dynamics and any potential second-round runoff on October 25.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$26,216Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a clear lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026, Bahia gubernatorial election due to his structural advantages as sitting governor, including a reported approval rating near 56 percent and continued influence from the long-standing PT machine in the state. Recent polling from April and May 2026 has shown a technical tie or narrow edges for challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in some surveys, reflecting Neto’s strength among independents and right-leaning voters amid his alignment with national opposition figures. However, Rodrigues has narrowed those gaps as his approval stabilized, while other candidates remain marginal. The contest is viewed as a rematch of the 2022 runoff, with national political realignments and local alliances likely to shape first-round dynamics and any potential second-round runoff on October 25.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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