Ricardo Ferraço holds the lead in the Espírito Santo governor race as the incumbent who assumed office in April 2026 following Renato Casagrande’s resignation. Recent July 2026 surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest show Ferraço ahead or in technical ties with main challengers Lorenzo Pazolini and Paulo Hartung across first-round and runoff scenarios, reflecting the typical advantages of holding the governorship. Traders price Ferraço highest at 62.5% implied probability, with Pazolini at 33.5%, consistent with polling trends and the roughly four-month window until the October election. Lower-priced names such as Arnaldinho Borgo and Sergio Vidigal register minimal support in available data. Late shifts could arise from additional candidate entries, debate performances, or coalition announcements before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEspírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço 63%
Lorenzo Pazolini 34%
Arnaldinho Borgo 3.9%
Sergio Vidigal 3.3%
$12,982 Vol.
$12,982 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
63%
Lorenzo Pazolini
34%
Arnaldinho Borgo
4%
Sergio Vidigal
3%
Euclério Sampaio
1%
Ricardo Ferraço 63%
Lorenzo Pazolini 34%
Arnaldinho Borgo 3.9%
Sergio Vidigal 3.3%
$12,982 Vol.
$12,982 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
$7,049 Vol.
63%
Lorenzo Pazolini
$3,440 Vol.
34%
Arnaldinho Borgo
$1,638 Vol.
4%
Sergio Vidigal
$396 Vol.
3%
Euclério Sampaio
$460 Vol.
1%
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço holds the lead in the Espírito Santo governor race as the incumbent who assumed office in April 2026 following Renato Casagrande’s resignation. Recent July 2026 surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest show Ferraço ahead or in technical ties with main challengers Lorenzo Pazolini and Paulo Hartung across first-round and runoff scenarios, reflecting the typical advantages of holding the governorship. Traders price Ferraço highest at 62.5% implied probability, with Pazolini at 33.5%, consistent with polling trends and the roughly four-month window until the October election. Lower-priced names such as Arnaldinho Borgo and Sergio Vidigal register minimal support in available data. Late shifts could arise from additional candidate entries, debate performances, or coalition announcements before the vote.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Volume
$12,982End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço holds the lead in the Espírito Santo governor race as the incumbent who assumed office in April 2026 following Renato Casagrande’s resignation. Recent July 2026 surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest show Ferraço ahead or in technical ties with main challengers Lorenzo Pazolini and Paulo Hartung across first-round and runoff scenarios, reflecting the typical advantages of holding the governorship. Traders price Ferraço highest at 62.5% implied probability, with Pazolini at 33.5%, consistent with polling trends and the roughly four-month window until the October election. Lower-priced names such as Arnaldinho Borgo and Sergio Vidigal register minimal support in available data. Late shifts could arise from additional candidate entries, debate performances, or coalition announcements before the vote.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$12,982End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ricardo Ferraço holds the lead in the Espírito Santo governor race as the incumbent who assumed office in April 2026 following Renato Casagrande’s resignation. Recent July 2026 surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest show Ferraço ahead or in technical ties with main challengers Lorenzo Pazolini and Paulo Hartung across first-round and runoff scenarios, reflecting the typical advantages of holding the governorship. Traders price Ferraço highest at 62.5% implied probability, with Pazolini at 33.5%, consistent with polling trends and the roughly four-month window until the October election. Lower-priced names such as Arnaldinho Borgo and Sergio Vidigal register minimal support in available data. Late shifts could arise from additional candidate entries, debate performances, or coalition announcements before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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