São Paulo’s Senate race for two seats on October 4 remains fragmented after candidate registration closed in mid-August, with recent Ideia/ACSP polling showing Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles clustered in the top tier and no candidate exceeding 27 percent. The single-round, two-vote system amplifies this dispersion, as voters split preferences across established figures from MDB, REDE, PP, PL, and NOVO alongside lesser-known names. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with leading probabilities clustered near 50 percent and only modest separation for Silva and a handful of others. Late-campaign alliances, turnout among urban and interior voters, and any last-minute party coordination could consolidate support and shift the ordering before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarina Silva 45%
Soninha Francine 44%
Petter Maahs 43%
Simone Tebet 42%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Marina Silva
45%
Soninha Francine
44%
Petter Maahs
43%
Simone Tebet
42%
Ednelson Cesaretti
41%
Maíra de Souza
40%
Geraldo Rufino
40%
Salles
37%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
19%
André do Prado
19%
William Teixeira
8%
Marcio Alves
8%
Weller Gonçalves
46%
Guilherme Derrite
44%
Marina Silva 45%
Soninha Francine 44%
Petter Maahs 43%
Simone Tebet 42%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Marina Silva
$20 Vol.
45%
Soninha Francine
$20 Vol.
44%
Petter Maahs
$20 Vol.
43%
Simone Tebet
$20 Vol.
42%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$20 Vol.
41%
Maíra de Souza
$20 Vol.
40%
Geraldo Rufino
$20 Vol.
40%
Salles
$20 Vol.
37%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$20 Vol.
19%
André do Prado
$20 Vol.
19%
William Teixeira
$40 Vol.
8%
Marcio Alves
$40 Vol.
8%
Weller Gonçalves
$20 Vol.
46%
Guilherme Derrite
$40 Vol.
44%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).São Paulo’s Senate race for two seats on October 4 remains fragmented after candidate registration closed in mid-August, with recent Ideia/ACSP polling showing Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles clustered in the top tier and no candidate exceeding 27 percent. The single-round, two-vote system amplifies this dispersion, as voters split preferences across established figures from MDB, REDE, PP, PL, and NOVO alongside lesser-known names. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with leading probabilities clustered near 50 percent and only modest separation for Silva and a handful of others. Late-campaign alliances, turnout among urban and interior voters, and any last-minute party coordination could consolidate support and shift the ordering before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$340End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).São Paulo’s Senate race for two seats on October 4 remains fragmented after candidate registration closed in mid-August, with recent Ideia/ACSP polling showing Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles clustered in the top tier and no candidate exceeding 27 percent. The single-round, two-vote system amplifies this dispersion, as voters split preferences across established figures from MDB, REDE, PP, PL, and NOVO alongside lesser-known names. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with leading probabilities clustered near 50 percent and only modest separation for Silva and a handful of others. Late-campaign alliances, turnout among urban and interior voters, and any last-minute party coordination could consolidate support and shift the ordering before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$340End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...São Paulo’s Senate race for two seats on October 4 remains fragmented after candidate registration closed in mid-August, with recent Ideia/ACSP polling showing Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles clustered in the top tier and no candidate exceeding 27 percent. The single-round, two-vote system amplifies this dispersion, as voters split preferences across established figures from MDB, REDE, PP, PL, and NOVO alongside lesser-known names. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with leading probabilities clustered near 50 percent and only modest separation for Silva and a handful of others. Late-campaign alliances, turnout among urban and interior voters, and any last-minute party coordination could consolidate support and shift the ordering before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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