The São Paulo Senate race for two seats on October 4 features a fragmented field where recent polls show Simone Tebet (PSB), Marina Silva (Rede), Guilherme Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), and Ricardo Salles (Novo) clustered in the teens to mid-20s, with high undecided and null responses exceeding 40% in some surveys. This leaves the ordering for second place highly sensitive to turnout among swing and conservative blocs, candidate consolidation on the right, and late shifts in name recognition for national figures building local support. No dominant frontrunner has emerged to separate from the pack, sustaining trader consensus near even odds across leading names. Upcoming debates, party alliances, and final poll releases before the single-round vote could reorder the middle of the field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSalles 46%
Weller Gonçalves 46%
Simone Tebet 46%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira 45%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Salles
46%
Weller Gonçalves
46%
Simone Tebet
46%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
45%
Guilherme Derrite
45%
Maíra de Souza
41%
William Teixeira
40%
André do Prado
29%
Marina Silva
28%
Petter Maahs
27%
Ednelson Cesaretti
25%
Geraldo Rufino
25%
Soninha Francine
24%
Marcio Alves
8%
Salles 46%
Weller Gonçalves 46%
Simone Tebet 46%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira 45%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Salles
$0 Vol.
46%
Weller Gonçalves
$0 Vol.
46%
Simone Tebet
$0 Vol.
46%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$0 Vol.
45%
Guilherme Derrite
$0 Vol.
45%
Maíra de Souza
$0 Vol.
41%
William Teixeira
$0 Vol.
40%
André do Prado
$0 Vol.
29%
Marina Silva
$0 Vol.
28%
Petter Maahs
$0 Vol.
27%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$0 Vol.
25%
Geraldo Rufino
$0 Vol.
25%
Soninha Francine
$0 Vol.
24%
Marcio Alves
$20 Vol.
8%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo Senate race for two seats on October 4 features a fragmented field where recent polls show Simone Tebet (PSB), Marina Silva (Rede), Guilherme Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), and Ricardo Salles (Novo) clustered in the teens to mid-20s, with high undecided and null responses exceeding 40% in some surveys. This leaves the ordering for second place highly sensitive to turnout among swing and conservative blocs, candidate consolidation on the right, and late shifts in name recognition for national figures building local support. No dominant frontrunner has emerged to separate from the pack, sustaining trader consensus near even odds across leading names. Upcoming debates, party alliances, and final poll releases before the single-round vote could reorder the middle of the field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo Senate race for two seats on October 4 features a fragmented field where recent polls show Simone Tebet (PSB), Marina Silva (Rede), Guilherme Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), and Ricardo Salles (Novo) clustered in the teens to mid-20s, with high undecided and null responses exceeding 40% in some surveys. This leaves the ordering for second place highly sensitive to turnout among swing and conservative blocs, candidate consolidation on the right, and late shifts in name recognition for national figures building local support. No dominant frontrunner has emerged to separate from the pack, sustaining trader consensus near even odds across leading names. Upcoming debates, party alliances, and final poll releases before the single-round vote could reorder the middle of the field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo Senate race for two seats on October 4 features a fragmented field where recent polls show Simone Tebet (PSB), Marina Silva (Rede), Guilherme Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), and Ricardo Salles (Novo) clustered in the teens to mid-20s, with high undecided and null responses exceeding 40% in some surveys. This leaves the ordering for second place highly sensitive to turnout among swing and conservative blocs, candidate consolidation on the right, and late shifts in name recognition for national figures building local support. No dominant frontrunner has emerged to separate from the pack, sustaining trader consensus near even odds across leading names. Upcoming debates, party alliances, and final poll releases before the single-round vote could reorder the middle of the field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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