Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor of São Paulo, holds a dominant position in the October 2026 gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads of 45-48 percent against main challenger Fernando Haddad of the PT, who registers 30-35 percent. Recent Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, and Vox Brasil surveys from April-May 2026 confirm Tarcísio’s first-round advantage and second-round victories in all simulations, reflecting voter approval of his administration and limited opposition consolidation. Right-wing fragmentation, including Kim Kataguiri’s exploratory candidacy with the Missão party, has not eroded the incumbent’s support, while lower-polling figures such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton register negligible shares. The four-month timeline to election day and absence of major new developments continue to underpin trader consensus around these probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTarcísio de Freitas 83%
Kim Kataguiri 11.5%
Fernando Haddad 3.4%
Márcio França <1%
$76,202 Wol.
$76,202 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
83%
Kim Kataguiri
11%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Márcio França
<1%
Erika Hilton
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
Kim Kataguiri 11.5%
Fernando Haddad 3.4%
Márcio França <1%
$76,202 Wol.
$76,202 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$24,681 Wol.
83%
Kim Kataguiri
$14,495 Wol.
11%
Fernando Haddad
$22,923 Wol.
3%
Márcio França
$6,467 Wol.
<1%
Erika Hilton
$7,871 Wol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor of São Paulo, holds a dominant position in the October 2026 gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads of 45-48 percent against main challenger Fernando Haddad of the PT, who registers 30-35 percent. Recent Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, and Vox Brasil surveys from April-May 2026 confirm Tarcísio’s first-round advantage and second-round victories in all simulations, reflecting voter approval of his administration and limited opposition consolidation. Right-wing fragmentation, including Kim Kataguiri’s exploratory candidacy with the Missão party, has not eroded the incumbent’s support, while lower-polling figures such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton register negligible shares. The four-month timeline to election day and absence of major new developments continue to underpin trader consensus around these probabilities.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$76,202Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor of São Paulo, holds a dominant position in the October 2026 gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads of 45-48 percent against main challenger Fernando Haddad of the PT, who registers 30-35 percent. Recent Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, and Vox Brasil surveys from April-May 2026 confirm Tarcísio’s first-round advantage and second-round victories in all simulations, reflecting voter approval of his administration and limited opposition consolidation. Right-wing fragmentation, including Kim Kataguiri’s exploratory candidacy with the Missão party, has not eroded the incumbent’s support, while lower-polling figures such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton register negligible shares. The four-month timeline to election day and absence of major new developments continue to underpin trader consensus around these probabilities.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Wolumen
$76,202Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor of São Paulo, holds a dominant position in the October 2026 gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads of 45-48 percent against main challenger Fernando Haddad of the PT, who registers 30-35 percent. Recent Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, and Vox Brasil surveys from April-May 2026 confirm Tarcísio’s first-round advantage and second-round victories in all simulations, reflecting voter approval of his administration and limited opposition consolidation. Right-wing fragmentation, including Kim Kataguiri’s exploratory candidacy with the Missão party, has not eroded the incumbent’s support, while lower-polling figures such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton register negligible shares. The four-month timeline to election day and absence of major new developments continue to underpin trader consensus around these probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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