Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads of 15–25 points over Fernando Haddad in September surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and RealTime Big Data, placing him near or above the threshold for a first-round victory on October 4. As incumbent, he benefits from a broad coalition spanning Republicans, PL, MDB, PSD, and other parties, alongside lower rejection rates and strong support outside the capital. Withdrawals by figures such as Kim Kataguiri have further consolidated the field. Traders price other listed names near zero because they register at 1% or less in current surveys. Late developments capable of shifting the outcome remain limited given the proximity of voting, though any major unforeseen event before October 4 could theoretically alter the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTarcísio de Freitas 98.6%
Fernando Haddad 1.1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$312,206 Vol.
$312,206 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
99%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 98.6%
Fernando Haddad 1.1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$312,206 Vol.
$312,206 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$147,793 Vol.
99%
Fernando Haddad
$51,553 Vol.
1%
Erika Hilton
$23,068 Vol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$79,124 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads of 15–25 points over Fernando Haddad in September surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and RealTime Big Data, placing him near or above the threshold for a first-round victory on October 4. As incumbent, he benefits from a broad coalition spanning Republicans, PL, MDB, PSD, and other parties, alongside lower rejection rates and strong support outside the capital. Withdrawals by figures such as Kim Kataguiri have further consolidated the field. Traders price other listed names near zero because they register at 1% or less in current surveys. Late developments capable of shifting the outcome remain limited given the proximity of voting, though any major unforeseen event before October 4 could theoretically alter the trajectory.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$312,206End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads of 15–25 points over Fernando Haddad in September surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and RealTime Big Data, placing him near or above the threshold for a first-round victory on October 4. As incumbent, he benefits from a broad coalition spanning Republicans, PL, MDB, PSD, and other parties, alongside lower rejection rates and strong support outside the capital. Withdrawals by figures such as Kim Kataguiri have further consolidated the field. Traders price other listed names near zero because they register at 1% or less in current surveys. Late developments capable of shifting the outcome remain limited given the proximity of voting, though any major unforeseen event before October 4 could theoretically alter the trajectory.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$312,206End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads of 15–25 points over Fernando Haddad in September surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and RealTime Big Data, placing him near or above the threshold for a first-round victory on October 4. As incumbent, he benefits from a broad coalition spanning Republicans, PL, MDB, PSD, and other parties, alongside lower rejection rates and strong support outside the capital. Withdrawals by figures such as Kim Kataguiri have further consolidated the field. Traders price other listed names near zero because they register at 1% or less in current surveys. Late developments capable of shifting the outcome remain limited given the proximity of voting, though any major unforeseen event before October 4 could theoretically alter the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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