Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the strongest position in the Maranhão gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, backed by consistent polling leads of 36–45% in September surveys from institutes including Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and IPPI. His background as a two-term former mayor of São Luís, where he secured reelection with over 70% of the vote in 2024, and his subsequent resignation to pursue the state executive have bolstered trader assessments of his viability. Orleans Brandão (MDB), the sitting governor’s nephew and the main rival, trails in most recent estimates at 25–32% amid a fragmented field that includes Felipe Camarão (PT) and several lower-polling contenders. Active campaign events such as caravans and regional walks by leading candidates have not materially shifted the hierarchy reflected in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEduardo Braide 75%
Orleans Brandão 23%
Felipe Camarão <1%
André Luís <1%
$78,221 Vol.
$78,221 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Braide
75%
Orleans Brandão
23%
Felipe Camarão
1%
André Luís
<1%
Lahesio Bonfim
<1%
Enilton Rodrigues
<1%
Eduardo Braide 75%
Orleans Brandão 23%
Felipe Camarão <1%
André Luís <1%
$78,221 Vol.
$78,221 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Braide
$40,583 Vol.
75%
Orleans Brandão
$17,096 Vol.
23%
Felipe Camarão
$5,567 Vol.
1%
André Luís
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
Lahesio Bonfim
$4,303 Vol.
<1%
Enilton Rodrigues
$4,924 Vol.
<1%
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the strongest position in the Maranhão gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, backed by consistent polling leads of 36–45% in September surveys from institutes including Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and IPPI. His background as a two-term former mayor of São Luís, where he secured reelection with over 70% of the vote in 2024, and his subsequent resignation to pursue the state executive have bolstered trader assessments of his viability. Orleans Brandão (MDB), the sitting governor’s nephew and the main rival, trails in most recent estimates at 25–32% amid a fragmented field that includes Felipe Camarão (PT) and several lower-polling contenders. Active campaign events such as caravans and regional walks by leading candidates have not materially shifted the hierarchy reflected in current market pricing.
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ET
Volume
$78,221End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the strongest position in the Maranhão gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, backed by consistent polling leads of 36–45% in September surveys from institutes including Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and IPPI. His background as a two-term former mayor of São Luís, where he secured reelection with over 70% of the vote in 2024, and his subsequent resignation to pursue the state executive have bolstered trader assessments of his viability. Orleans Brandão (MDB), the sitting governor’s nephew and the main rival, trails in most recent estimates at 25–32% amid a fragmented field that includes Felipe Camarão (PT) and several lower-polling contenders. Active campaign events such as caravans and regional walks by leading candidates have not materially shifted the hierarchy reflected in current market pricing.
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$78,221End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the strongest position in the Maranhão gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, backed by consistent polling leads of 36–45% in September surveys from institutes including Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and IPPI. His background as a two-term former mayor of São Luís, where he secured reelection with over 70% of the vote in 2024, and his subsequent resignation to pursue the state executive have bolstered trader assessments of his viability. Orleans Brandão (MDB), the sitting governor’s nephew and the main rival, trails in most recent estimates at 25–32% amid a fragmented field that includes Felipe Camarão (PT) and several lower-polling contenders. Active campaign events such as caravans and regional walks by leading candidates have not materially shifted the hierarchy reflected in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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