Hana Ghassan, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Helder Barbalho’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat, holds a 58% implied probability in the market, ahead of Dr. Daniel Santos of Podemos at 37%. Recent September polling from AtlasIntel, Veritá, and Real Time Big Data shows the two candidates in a statistical tie or narrow lead depending on the survey, with undecided voters and low single-digit support for all other names including Éder Mauro and Zequinha Marinho. Ghassan benefits from her position, a broad MDB-led coalition, and administrative continuity, while Santos draws opposition backing and momentum from his mayoral record in Ananindeua. The October 4 first-round vote and potential runoff keep the outcome sensitive to late shifts in turnout or voter consolidation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHana Ghassan 59%
Dr. Daniel Santos 35%
Éder Mauro 1.3%
Dirceu Ten Caten <1%
$45,887 Vol.
$45,887 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Hana Ghassan
59%
Dr. Daniel Santos
35%
Éder Mauro
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
<1%
Zequinha Marinho
<1%
Rogério Barra
<1%
Paulo Rocha
<1%
Hana Ghassan 59%
Dr. Daniel Santos 35%
Éder Mauro 1.3%
Dirceu Ten Caten <1%
$45,887 Vol.
$45,887 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Hana Ghassan
$17,038 Vol.
59%
Dr. Daniel Santos
$12,208 Vol.
35%
Éder Mauro
$5,288 Vol.
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
$2,815 Vol.
<1%
Zequinha Marinho
$2,811 Vol.
<1%
Rogério Barra
$2,872 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rocha
$2,855 Vol.
<1%
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Helder Barbalho’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat, holds a 58% implied probability in the market, ahead of Dr. Daniel Santos of Podemos at 37%. Recent September polling from AtlasIntel, Veritá, and Real Time Big Data shows the two candidates in a statistical tie or narrow lead depending on the survey, with undecided voters and low single-digit support for all other names including Éder Mauro and Zequinha Marinho. Ghassan benefits from her position, a broad MDB-led coalition, and administrative continuity, while Santos draws opposition backing and momentum from his mayoral record in Ananindeua. The October 4 first-round vote and potential runoff keep the outcome sensitive to late shifts in turnout or voter consolidation.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
Volume
$45,887End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Helder Barbalho’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat, holds a 58% implied probability in the market, ahead of Dr. Daniel Santos of Podemos at 37%. Recent September polling from AtlasIntel, Veritá, and Real Time Big Data shows the two candidates in a statistical tie or narrow lead depending on the survey, with undecided voters and low single-digit support for all other names including Éder Mauro and Zequinha Marinho. Ghassan benefits from her position, a broad MDB-led coalition, and administrative continuity, while Santos draws opposition backing and momentum from his mayoral record in Ananindeua. The October 4 first-round vote and potential runoff keep the outcome sensitive to late shifts in turnout or voter consolidation.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$45,887End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hana Ghassan, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Helder Barbalho’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat, holds a 58% implied probability in the market, ahead of Dr. Daniel Santos of Podemos at 37%. Recent September polling from AtlasIntel, Veritá, and Real Time Big Data shows the two candidates in a statistical tie or narrow lead depending on the survey, with undecided voters and low single-digit support for all other names including Éder Mauro and Zequinha Marinho. Ghassan benefits from her position, a broad MDB-led coalition, and administrative continuity, while Santos draws opposition backing and momentum from his mayoral record in Ananindeua. The October 4 first-round vote and potential runoff keep the outcome sensitive to late shifts in turnout or voter consolidation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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