Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Pará Governor Election Winner
Politics·Brazil

Pará Governor Election Winner

icon for Pará Governor Election Winner
Politics·Brazil

Pará Governor Election Winner

Hana Ghassan 59%

Dr. Daniel Santos 40%

Éder Mauro 1.2%

Dirceu Ten Caten <1%

Polymarket

$45,834 Vol.

Hana Ghassan 59%

Dr. Daniel Santos 40%

Éder Mauro 1.2%

Dirceu Ten Caten <1%

Polymarket

$45,834 Vol.

icon for Hana Ghassan

Hana Ghassan

$17,038 Vol.

59%

icon for Dr. Daniel Santos

Dr. Daniel Santos

$12,154 Vol.

40%

icon for Éder Mauro

Éder Mauro

$5,288 Vol.

1%

icon for Dirceu Ten Caten

Dirceu Ten Caten

$2,815 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zequinha Marinho

Zequinha Marinho

$2,811 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rogério Barra

Rogério Barra

$2,872 Vol.

<1%

icon for Paulo Rocha

Paulo Rocha

$2,855 Vol.

<1%

The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Helder Barbalho's resignation to run for Senate, leads recent polling with 48.5% of voter intentions in the latest AtlasIntel survey (conducted September 5–10), ahead of Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41.7%, with all other registered candidates below 2%. In valid votes, she reaches 52%, positioning her near a first-round victory on October 4, while second-round simulations show a narrower edge. Traders price her win probability at 59% versus 39.5% for Santos, reflecting her incumbency advantage, broad coalition backing, and campaign focus on health decentralization and infrastructure amid ongoing voter outreach in interior regions. Earlier polls showed tighter or tied contests with higher undecided shares, but recent data has widened her position ahead of the October timeline.

The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$45,834
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Helder Barbalho's resignation to run for Senate, leads recent polling with 48.5% of voter intentions in the latest AtlasIntel survey (conducted September 5–10), ahead of Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41.7%, with all other registered candidates below 2%. In valid votes, she reaches 52%, positioning her near a first-round victory on October 4, while second-round simulations show a narrower edge. Traders price her win probability at 59% versus 39.5% for Santos, reflecting her incumbency advantage, broad coalition backing, and campaign focus on health decentralization and infrastructure amid ongoing voter outreach in interior regions. Earlier polls showed tighter or tied contests with higher undecided shares, but recent data has widened her position ahead of the October timeline.

The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$45,834
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Lucas Ribeiro win the Governor of Paraíba election?

Will Lucas Ribeiro win the Governor of Paraíba election?

83%
icon for Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?

Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?

58%
icon for Will Dr. Furlan win the 2026 Amapá gubernatorial election?

Will Dr. Furlan win the 2026 Amapá gubernatorial election?

92%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Pará Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Hana Ghassan" at 59%, followed by "Dr. Daniel Santos" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Pará Governor Election Winner" has generated $45.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Pará Governor Election Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Pará Governor Election Winner" is "Hana Ghassan" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dr. Daniel Santos" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Pará Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.