Recent polling shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro locked in the top two spots for Brazil’s October 4 first round, leaving third and fourth positions open amid a fragmented field. Augusto Cury has surged into third in multiple surveys, while Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema trade single-digit support and trail closely for fourth. Pablo Marçal’s recent ineligibility ruling removed one variable but has not consolidated the lower tier. With the vote less than two weeks away and high undecided or blank shares, small shifts in turnout or late campaign momentum among center-right and anti-establishment voters could reorder the lower rankings reflected in current trader pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRonaldo Caiado 31%
Renan Santos 26%
Augusto Cury 21%
Pablo Marçal 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 3, 2026
Ronaldo Caiado
46%
Renan Santos
22%
Augusto Cury
23%
Pablo Marçal
14%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
14%
Zema
9%
Flavio Bolsonaro
8%
Hertz Dias
6%
Samara
6%
Clariana Barao
5%
Edmilson Costa
5%
Rui Costa Pimenta
5%
Lula
5%
Ronaldo Caiado 31%
Renan Santos 26%
Augusto Cury 21%
Pablo Marçal 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 3, 2026
Ronaldo Caiado
$58 Vol.
46%
Renan Santos
$17 Vol.
22%
Augusto Cury
$31 Vol.
23%
Pablo Marçal
$28 Vol.
14%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$8 Vol.
14%
Zema
$8 Vol.
9%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$117 Vol.
8%
Hertz Dias
$8 Vol.
6%
Samara
$8 Vol.
6%
Clariana Barao
$98 Vol.
5%
Edmilson Costa
$98 Vol.
5%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$8 Vol.
5%
Lula
$108 Vol.
5%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro locked in the top two spots for Brazil’s October 4 first round, leaving third and fourth positions open amid a fragmented field. Augusto Cury has surged into third in multiple surveys, while Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema trade single-digit support and trail closely for fourth. Pablo Marçal’s recent ineligibility ruling removed one variable but has not consolidated the lower tier. With the vote less than two weeks away and high undecided or blank shares, small shifts in turnout or late campaign momentum among center-right and anti-establishment voters could reorder the lower rankings reflected in current trader pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 3:56 PM ET
Volume
$594End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro locked in the top two spots for Brazil’s October 4 first round, leaving third and fourth positions open amid a fragmented field. Augusto Cury has surged into third in multiple surveys, while Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema trade single-digit support and trail closely for fourth. Pablo Marçal’s recent ineligibility ruling removed one variable but has not consolidated the lower tier. With the vote less than two weeks away and high undecided or blank shares, small shifts in turnout or late campaign momentum among center-right and anti-establishment voters could reorder the lower rankings reflected in current trader pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$594End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro locked in the top two spots for Brazil’s October 4 first round, leaving third and fourth positions open amid a fragmented field. Augusto Cury has surged into third in multiple surveys, while Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema trade single-digit support and trail closely for fourth. Pablo Marçal’s recent ineligibility ruling removed one variable but has not consolidated the lower tier. With the vote less than two weeks away and high undecided or blank shares, small shifts in turnout or late campaign momentum among center-right and anti-establishment voters could reorder the lower rankings reflected in current trader pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
43%
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
70%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
72%
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