Skip to main content
icon for Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place

icon for Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place

Marcelo Aro 44%

Domingos Sávio 44%

Marília Campos 44%

Manoel Carvalho 44%

Polymarket
NEW

Marcelo Aro 44%

Domingos Sávio 44%

Marília Campos 44%

Manoel Carvalho 44%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Marcelo Aro

Marcelo Aro

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Domingos Sávio

Domingos Sávio

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Marília Campos

Marília Campos

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Manoel Carvalho

Manoel Carvalho

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Tião Pessoa

Tião Pessoa

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Arcanjo Pimenta

Arcanjo Pimenta

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Jordano Metalúrgico

Jordano Metalúrgico

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Juiz Ramon Moreira

Juiz Ramon Moreira

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Ana Luiza do MLB

Ana Luiza do MLB

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Carlos Viana

Carlos Viana

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Victória Mello Vic

Victória Mello Vic

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Gustavo Galassi

Gustavo Galassi

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Marco Antônio Superman

Marco Antônio Superman

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for Carlin Moura

Carlin Moura

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for Áurea Carolina

Áurea Carolina

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for Marcelo Heringer

Marcelo Heringer

$20 Vol.

10%

icon for Fidélis Alcântara

Fidélis Alcântara

$20 Vol.

8%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Traders view the Minas Gerais Senate race for second place as highly uncertain due to a fragmented field of roughly 13 candidates competing for two seats on October 4, 2026. Recent polls from Quaest, Ipan/Panorama, and others show Marília Campos (PT), Carlos Viana (PSD), and Domingos Sávio (PL) locked in tight technical ties, with support fluctuating between 9% and 24% depending on the scenario and alliance structures. Aécio Neves’s withdrawal in August has further redistributed voter intentions without creating a clear hierarchy. Smaller-party contenders such as Ana Luiza do MLB and Áurea Carolina trail but retain niche bases, while low-polling names like Marcelo Heringer and Fidélis Alcântara face steep structural barriers. This broad distribution of viable paths to second place sustains clustered market probabilities around 44–50% for the top tier, with any late consolidation of center-right or left-leaning coalitions the most likely catalyst for separation.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$40
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Traders view the Minas Gerais Senate race for second place as highly uncertain due to a fragmented field of roughly 13 candidates competing for two seats on October 4, 2026. Recent polls from Quaest, Ipan/Panorama, and others show Marília Campos (PT), Carlos Viana (PSD), and Domingos Sávio (PL) locked in tight technical ties, with support fluctuating between 9% and 24% depending on the scenario and alliance structures. Aécio Neves’s withdrawal in August has further redistributed voter intentions without creating a clear hierarchy. Smaller-party contenders such as Ana Luiza do MLB and Áurea Carolina trail but retain niche bases, while low-polling names like Marcelo Heringer and Fidélis Alcântara face steep structural barriers. This broad distribution of viable paths to second place sustains clustered market probabilities around 44–50% for the top tier, with any late consolidation of center-right or left-leaning coalitions the most likely catalyst for separation.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$40
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Related

icon for Will Carlin Moura win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?

Will Carlin Moura win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?

44%
icon for Will Coronel Darwin win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?

Will Coronel Darwin win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?

43%
icon for Will Capitão Alberto Neto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?

Will Capitão Alberto Neto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?

43%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Marcelo Aro" at 44%, followed by "Domingos Sávio" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place" is "Marcelo Aro" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Domingos Sávio" at 44%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.