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World·Global Elections

Quebec General Election Winner

icon for Quebec General Election Winner
World·Global Elections

Quebec General Election Winner

PQ 57%

PLQ 34%

CAQ 10%

PCQ <1%

Polymarket

$453,581 Vol.

PQ 57%

PLQ 34%

CAQ 10%

PCQ <1%

Polymarket

$453,581 Vol.

icon for PQ

PQ

$47,886 Vol.

57%

icon for PLQ

PLQ

$52,613 Vol.

34%

icon for CAQ

CAQ

$49,096 Vol.

10%

icon for PCQ

PCQ

$148,043 Vol.

<1%

icon for PVQ

PVQ

$107,182 Vol.

<1%

icon for QS

QS

$48,761 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 57% to claim the most seats in the National Assembly during the general election by October 5, 2026, aligning with projections from 338Canada (64 seats for PQ vs. 44 for PLQ) and Qc125, driven by PQ's efficient vote distribution in francophone ridings despite neck-and-neck popular vote shares near 30%. Recent Léger polling (April 20) shows PQ edging PLQ 31-28% after Christine Fréchette's April 12 CAQ leadership win and April 15 swearing-in as premier boosted the incumbent party to 17%—mostly eroding Liberal support amid Legault-era fatigue—while PCQ rises to 14% but trails in seat math. PLQ's 34% odds reflect competitive polling averages under leader Charles Milliard, with CAQ's modest rebound at 9.5% underscoring recovery challenges in first-past-the-post dynamics; National Assembly reconvenes May 5.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$453,581
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 57% to claim the most seats in the National Assembly during the general election by October 5, 2026, aligning with projections from 338Canada (64 seats for PQ vs. 44 for PLQ) and Qc125, driven by PQ's efficient vote distribution in francophone ridings despite neck-and-neck popular vote shares near 30%. Recent Léger polling (April 20) shows PQ edging PLQ 31-28% after Christine Fréchette's April 12 CAQ leadership win and April 15 swearing-in as premier boosted the incumbent party to 17%—mostly eroding Liberal support amid Legault-era fatigue—while PCQ rises to 14% but trails in seat math. PLQ's 34% odds reflect competitive polling averages under leader Charles Milliard, with CAQ's modest rebound at 9.5% underscoring recovery challenges in first-past-the-post dynamics; National Assembly reconvenes May 5.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$453,581
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Quebec General Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "PQ" at 57%, followed by "PLQ" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quebec General Election Winner" has generated $453.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quebec General Election Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quebec General Election Winner" is "PQ" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "PLQ" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quebec General Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.