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Canada predictions & odds

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Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

59%

$363K Vol.

$56.5K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner

B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner

43%

Caroline Elliott

$52.9K Vol.

$157K Liq.

3

Ends in about 1 month

Bank of Canada decision in April?

Bank of Canada decision in April?

99%

No change

$161K Vol.

$21.1K Liq.

Ends in 4 days

Quebec General Election Winner

Quebec General Election Winner

56%

PQ

$453K Vol.

$157K Liq.

48

Ends in 5 months

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

80%

Olivia Chow

$17.5K Vol.

$117K Liq.

5

Ends in 6 months

Bank of Canada decision in June?

Bank of Canada decision in June?

89%

No change

$7.0K Vol.

$16.5K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner

Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner

63%

Mark Sutcliffe

$6.5K Vol.

$94.8K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?

Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?

16%

$3.0K Vol.

$13.9K Liq.

2

Ends in 8 months

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

25%

$144K Vol.

$30.5K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

33%

$5.6K Vol.

$1.8K Liq.

2

Ends in 8 months

Another Canada election called by June 30?

Another Canada election called by June 30?

2%

$79.5K Vol.

$20.1K Liq.

40

Ends in 2 months

Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner

Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner

35%

Kareem Allam

$38.9K Vol.

$184K Liq.

1

Ends in 6 months

Canada recession before 2027?

Canada recession before 2027?

39%

$64.7K Vol.

$17.4K Liq.

4

Ends in 8 months

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

14%

$32.8K Vol.

$9.6K Liq.

4

Ends in 2 months

Will Alberta join the US?

Will Alberta join the US?

5%

$3.5K Vol.

$18.8K Liq.

6

Ends in 8 months

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

14%

$54.8K Vol.

$32.4K Liq.

7

Ends in 8 months

Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?

Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?

30%

$37.0K Vol.

$4.3K Liq.

9

Ends in 8 months

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

14%

3.0-3.4%

$15.9K Vol.

$8.9K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

5%

$44.0K Vol.

$11.0K Liq.

4

Ends in 2 months

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

43%

Up

$1.4K Vol.

$1.8K Liq.

2

Ends in about 1 year

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Canada.

Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Canada that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $1.6M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Quebec General Election Winner,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Quebec General Election Winner,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 56% chance to PQ. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Canada predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.