Canada’s August 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year, matching July and market expectations, as slower gasoline price growth was offset by rising travel and shelter costs amid Middle East supply disruptions. Headline pressures remain concentrated in energy, with gasoline up 22.8% year-over-year, while core measures—CPI-trim at 1.9% and CPI-median at 2.0%—stay anchored near the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, and CPI excluding food and energy edged to 2.1%. The central bank has kept its policy rate at 2.25% on hold, signaling vigilance against second-round effects from elevated crude prices without clear evidence of broad pass-through. With September data due next month and ongoing geopolitical risks, trader-implied odds cluster tightly around the 2.5–3.4% range for the full-year 2026 average.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.5–2.9% 36.5%
3.0-3.4% 36.3%
3.5-3.9% 15.0%
2.0–2.4% 7.8%
$42,211 Vol.
$42,211 Vol.
Jan 17, 2027
<1.0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
3%
1.5–1.9%
1%
2.0–2.4%
8%
2.5–2.9%
37%
3.0-3.4%
36%
3.5-3.9%
15%
4.0%+
4%
2.5–2.9% 36.5%
3.0-3.4% 36.3%
3.5-3.9% 15.0%
2.0–2.4% 7.8%
$42,211 Vol.
$42,211 Vol.
Jan 17, 2027
<1.0%
$1,225 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.4%
$5,465 Vol.
3%
1.5–1.9%
$3,466 Vol.
1%
2.0–2.4%
$2,656 Vol.
8%
2.5–2.9%
$10,244 Vol.
37%
3.0-3.4%
$14,363 Vol.
36%
3.5-3.9%
$4,254 Vol.
15%
4.0%+
$539 Vol.
4%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Canada’s August 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year, matching July and market expectations, as slower gasoline price growth was offset by rising travel and shelter costs amid Middle East supply disruptions. Headline pressures remain concentrated in energy, with gasoline up 22.8% year-over-year, while core measures—CPI-trim at 1.9% and CPI-median at 2.0%—stay anchored near the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, and CPI excluding food and energy edged to 2.1%. The central bank has kept its policy rate at 2.25% on hold, signaling vigilance against second-round effects from elevated crude prices without clear evidence of broad pass-through. With September data due next month and ongoing geopolitical risks, trader-implied odds cluster tightly around the 2.5–3.4% range for the full-year 2026 average.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$42,211End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Canada’s August 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year, matching July and market expectations, as slower gasoline price growth was offset by rising travel and shelter costs amid Middle East supply disruptions. Headline pressures remain concentrated in energy, with gasoline up 22.8% year-over-year, while core measures—CPI-trim at 1.9% and CPI-median at 2.0%—stay anchored near the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, and CPI excluding food and energy edged to 2.1%. The central bank has kept its policy rate at 2.25% on hold, signaling vigilance against second-round effects from elevated crude prices without clear evidence of broad pass-through. With September data due next month and ongoing geopolitical risks, trader-implied odds cluster tightly around the 2.5–3.4% range for the full-year 2026 average.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Volume
$42,211End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Canada’s August 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year, matching July and market expectations, as slower gasoline price growth was offset by rising travel and shelter costs amid Middle East supply disruptions. Headline pressures remain concentrated in energy, with gasoline up 22.8% year-over-year, while core measures—CPI-trim at 1.9% and CPI-median at 2.0%—stay anchored near the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, and CPI excluding food and energy edged to 2.1%. The central bank has kept its policy rate at 2.25% on hold, signaling vigilance against second-round effects from elevated crude prices without clear evidence of broad pass-through. With September data due next month and ongoing geopolitical risks, trader-implied odds cluster tightly around the 2.5–3.4% range for the full-year 2026 average.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions